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Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December

Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December

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Published by Alexander Gloy
We look at a bunch of US macro-economic indicators to figure out the likelihood of the US being in a recession. Currently, it does not look like it (7% weighted probability).
We look at a bunch of US macro-economic indicators to figure out the likelihood of the US being in a recession. Currently, it does not look like it (7% weighted probability).

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Alexander Gloy on Dec 18, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/30/2014

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L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 2013 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 1
󰁍󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 󰁒󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴
󰁅󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 󰁉󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 󰁕󰁓󰁁
󰁄󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 󰀲󰀰󰀱󰀳
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 2013 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 2 C󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳 󰁓󰁵󰁭󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁹 ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 P󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁴󰁹 I󰁮󰁤󰁥󰁸........................................................................................................ 4 I󰁮󰁴󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................................................................. 5 F󰁥󰁤 F󰁵󰁮󰁤󰁳 R󰁡󰁴󰁥 ............................................................................................................................................ 10 C󰁲󰁵󰁤󰁥 O󰁩󰁬 ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: B󰁵󰁩󰁬󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 P󰁥󰁲󰁭󰁩󰁴󰁳 ................................................................................................................... 12 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: N󰁯󰁮󰀭F󰁡󰁲󰁭 P󰁡󰁹󰁲󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁳 ................................................................................................................ 13 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: E󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁩󰁳󰁨󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁵󰁳 H󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥󰁨󰁯󰁬󰁤 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ............................................................................. 14 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: J󰁯󰁢󰁳 G󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁤 / L󰁯󰁳󰁴 ................................................................................................................ 15 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: J󰁯󰁢󰁳 G󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁤/L󰁯󰁳󰁴 (󰁺󰁯󰁯󰁭󰁥󰁤󰀭󰁩󰁮) .............................................................................................. 16 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: H󰁩󰁲󰁥 󰁡󰁮󰁤 F󰁩󰁲󰁥 ......................................................................................................................... 17 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: I󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁩󰁡󰁬 󰁡󰁮󰁤 R󰁥󰁶󰁩󰁳󰁥󰁤 N󰁯󰁮󰀭F󰁡󰁲󰁭 P󰁡󰁹󰁲󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁳 .................................................................................. 18 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: F󰁵󰁬󰁬 󰁔󰁩󰁭󰁥 ............................................................................................................................... 19 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: P󰁯󰁰󰁵󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮, L󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 F󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥, E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁥󰁥󰁳 .................................................................................... 20 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: L󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 F󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥 P󰁡󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁰󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 R󰁡󰁴󰁥 ............................................................................................. 21 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: 󰁕󰁮󰁥󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴..................................................................................................................... 22 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥: 󰁕󰁮󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁯󰁦 M󰁩󰁣󰁨󰁩󰁧󰁡󰁮 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ............................................................................... 23 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥: C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥 B󰁯󰁡󰁲󰁤 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ...................................................................................... 24 C󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁩󰁴: 󰁔󰁯󰁴󰁡󰁬 O󰁵󰁴󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 ............................................................................................................................ 25 C󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁩󰁴: B󰁡󰁮󰁫 L󰁯󰁡󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 L󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁥󰁳 .................................................................................................................... 26 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: N󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁬 .................................................................................................................................. 27 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 ......................................................................................................................................... 28 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰀭󰁣󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡 ........................................................................................................................ 29 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: E󰁸󰁣󰁬󰁵󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 A󰁵󰁴󰁯󰁳 ...................................................................................................................... 30 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: H󰁯󰁵󰁲󰁳 󰁗󰁯󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁤 ................................................................................................................... 31 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: O󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁳 ............................................................................................................................... 32 O󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁳: C󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡󰁬 G󰁯󰁯󰁤󰁳 ................................................................................................................................. 33 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: 󰁓󰁵󰁰󰁰󰁬󰁩󰁥󰁲 D󰁥󰁬󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁩󰁥󰁳 ............................................................................................................ 34 E󰁮󰁥󰁲󰁧󰁹: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁰󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................................................. 35 E󰁮󰁥󰁲󰁧󰁹: P󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮...................................................................................................................................... 36 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁮󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: M󰁩󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁤 ................................................................................................................... 37 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁮󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: G󰁡󰁳󰁯󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁰󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 ...................................................................................................... 38 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 D󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 󰁰󰁥󰁲 C󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡 .............................................................................................. 39 I󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 & P󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁥󰁲 P󰁲󰁩󰁣󰁥󰁳....................................................................................................... 40 I󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 E󰁸󰁰󰁥󰁣󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳 ................................................................................................................................. 41
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 2013 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 3
Summary
󰁔󰁨󰁥 "G󰁯󰁯󰁤":
 
D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁹 󰁯󰁦 󰁣󰁩󰁶󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁡󰁮 󰁥󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁮 N󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲
 
L󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥 󰁰󰁡󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁰󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁩󰁭󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁤 󰁳󰁬󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁬󰁹 󰁩󰁮 N󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲
 
󰁕󰁮󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁯󰁦 M󰁩󰁣󰁨󰁩󰁧󰁡󰁮 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 󰁓󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁩󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁭󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁤 󰁳󰁩󰁧󰁮󰁩󰁦󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁮󰁴󰁬󰁹
 
R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁡󰁣󰁣󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁤 󰁦󰁵󰁲󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁲 󰁩󰁮 N󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 󰁔󰁨󰁥 "B󰁡󰁤":
 
󰁓󰁬󰁯󰁷󰀭󰁤󰁯󰁷󰁮 󰁩󰁮 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁯󰁦 󰁳󰁩󰁮󰁧󰁬󰁥󰀭󰁦󰁡󰁭󰁩󰁬󰁹 󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 󰁢󰁵󰁩󰁬󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰁭󰁩󰁴󰁳 󰁦󰁲󰁯󰁭 O󰁣󰁴󰁯󰁢󰁥󰁲
 
G󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁯󰁦 󰁢󰁡󰁮󰁫 󰁬󰁯󰁡󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁬󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁥󰁳 󰁳󰁬󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁤 󰁴󰁯 0.2% (󰁰󰁡󰁳󰁴 3 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁨󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁮󰁵󰁡󰁬󰁩󰁺󰁥󰁤)
 
A󰁵󰁴󰁯 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁲 󰁰󰁡󰁳󰁴 3 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁨󰁳 󰁤󰁥󰁣󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁤 󰁦󰁲󰁯󰁭 +17% 󰁴󰁯 +3% 󰁳󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁥 A󰁵󰁧󰁵󰁳󰁴
 
C󰁯󰁲󰁥 󰁣󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡󰁬 󰁧󰁯󰁯󰁤󰁳 󰁯󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁳󰁬󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁤 󰁤󰁯󰁷󰁮 󰁩󰁮 O󰁣󰁴󰁯󰁢󰁥󰁲
 
G󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁯󰁦 󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁬 󰁤󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 󰁰󰁥󰁲 󰁣󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡 󰁲󰁥󰁭󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁲󰁯󰁵󰁮󰁤 1%
󰁃󰁏󰁎󰁃󰁌󰁕󰁓󰁉󰁏󰁎󰀺
󰁔󰁨󰁥 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁦󰁯󰁲 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁲󰁥󰁭󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳 󰁬󰁯󰁷. H󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲, 󰁥󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁲󰁥󰁭󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳 󰁷󰁥󰁡󰁫. 󰁓󰁴󰁡󰁧󰁮󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁯󰁦 󰁢󰁡󰁮󰁫 󰁣󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁩󰁴 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁦󰁩󰁳󰁣󰁡󰁬 󰁤󰁲󰁡󰁧 󰁦󰁲󰁯󰁭 󰁡 󰁳󰁷󰁩󰁦󰁴 󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁩󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁕󰁓 󰁢󰁵󰁤󰁧󰁥󰁴 󰁤󰁥󰁦󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁴 󰁣󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁤󰁡󰁭󰁰󰁥󰁮 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁩󰁮 2014.

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