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TPL Dec 16 13

TPL Dec 16 13

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TPL Dec 16 13
TPL Dec 16 13

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09/25/2014

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 ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ
abe@gulkowitz.com
917-402-9039
2013 issue 23December 16, 2013
Winter Crosscurrents
Justshyofthenewyear,financialmarketscontinuetobedominatedbytheextentofmonetaryaccommodation.Especiallyinmajoradvancedeconomies,bondsandstockshaveshruggedoffthesummersell-offandpostedgainsontheviewthatlowpolicyratesandlarge-scaleassetpurchaseswouldpersistlonger.Accordingly,marketstookinstrideatwo-weekUSgovernmentshutdownanduncertaintyoveraUStechnicaldefault.Bycontrast,awiderangeofcountry-specificstrainsweighedonseverallargeemergingmarketeconomies,preventingafullrecoveryoflocalassetvaluationsandcapitalflows.MuchattentionhasbeengiventothehopeofastrengtheningintheU.S.economy.Keyelementsincludeanveryslowlyimprovinglabormarketandamazingmovesinassetmarkets.Realestatevaluesandequitymarketvaluationshavebolsteredbothbusinessandhouseholdwealth--andtheoutlookforspendingin2014.TheperceivedpostponementofFedtaperinggaverisetosignificantgainsinglobalbondandequitymarkets.Indeed,somehavequestionedwhethertherecoveryinhomepricesinsomeareashasmovedtooquickly.Anymovetonormalcy,howevergradual,willtestmarkets.Thedreadedtaperingwillremainakeyfocusofmarkets…Astheaccommodativemonetarypolicystancepersistedinallmajorcurrencyareas,sodidinvestors’desperatesearchforyield.Theunnaturaleasingstance,thoughnecessary,spurredanaberrantdemandforassetsintheriskierendofthespectrum.Byandlarge,suchassetshavesofarliveduptotheirpromise.Thenewyearmayagainchallengethatassumption.
The European Central Bank issued a stark warningover the threat posed by the scaling back of USmonetary stimulus, calling on eurozone policymakers to do more to prepare for the market shocksfrom Federal Reserve “tapering”.
Chinese“tapering”mayworsenU.S.bondwoes
Large dependable buyers of Treasuries may be thin on theground in the coming years. The Fed will trim, and eventually stop, its asset purchases. And now China istalking about halting its reserve accumulation. U.S. bond yields could rise faster and further than expected.
Yen at five-year lows as more bet against currency
Retailers:
 
high
end
 
doing
 
well,
 
low
end
 
cautious
Budget negotiators reach deal… could restore someorder to the nation
ʹ
s chaotic budget process andavoid another government shutdown on January 15
Judge: Detroit eligible for Chapter 9 bankruptcy
Brazil reported its third quarter GDPcontracted 0.5% from the secondquarter. More alarmingly, Brazil’s 10
year yield shot up and its spread overthe U.S. Treasury is now at the highestlevel since the summer of 2009
 Bracing for bumpy ride in emerging markets
EURO currency at growth-crushing levels
 Return of boom-era debt deals raise alarm
The year is not ending on a high note in the
smallbusinesssector
 of theeconomy. The “bifurcation” continues, the “Fortune 500” are performingwell with the stock market hitting record high levels. But the smallbusiness sector is showing little growth beyond that driven by populationgrowth.
Fed
 
taper
 
concern
 
boosts
 
dollar,
 
weigh
 
on
 
stocks
 
Will
 
it
 
burst
 
bond
 
bubble
 
and
 
dampen
 
mortgage
 
finance?
Europe faces moment of truth on banks, with flawed defenses
US industrial production jumped 1.1% in November, the greatest gain in 12 months. The November reading was up 3.2% year-over-year. Utility output increased 3.9 percent after declining 0.3 percent in October. Falling temperatures prompted Americans to adjust their thermostats last month, the Fed said.
U.S.carsalesrose
 9% in November from a year earlier, aided by promotion
s
Someapparelchains
 areseeing inventory growth far outpacing sales growth.
 
The PunchLine...
2December 16, 2013
In This Issue
 Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites.
Data Detective…
(pg 5)
The Return to Normal…
(pg 6)
You Can’t Handle the Truth…
(pg 7)
The Likelihood of Unlikely Events...
 (pg 8)
Dislocation…
(pg 9)
Households…
(pg 10)
Some Job Specs…
(pg 11)
Credit …
(pg 12)
Credit …
(pg 13)
Credit Matters
(pg 14)
The New Geography of Business…
 (pg 15)
DealorNoDealinEurope
 (pg 16)
Pumpingiron
 (pg 17)
The DNA of Business
(pg 18)
Real Estate and Construction…
(pg 19)
More Construction…
(pg 20)
Will Life Ever be the Same?
 (
pg 21
)
Winter Crosscurrents…
Justshyofthenewyear,financialmarketscontinuetobedominatedbytheextentofmonetaryaccommodation..Especiallyinmajoradvancedeconomies,bondsandstockshaveshruggedoffthesummersell-offandpostedgainsontheviewthatlowpolicyratesandlarge-scaleassetpurchaseswouldpersistlonger.Accordingly,marketstookinstrideatwo-weekUSgovernmentshutdownanduncertaintyoveraUStechnicaldefault.Bycontrast,awiderangeofcountry-specificstrainsweighedonseverallargeemergingmarketeconomies,preventingafullrecoveryoflocalassetvaluationsandcapitalflows.MuchattentionhasbeengiventothehopeofastrengtheningintheU.S.economy.Keyelementsincludeanveryslowlyimprovinglabormarketandamazingmovesinassetmarkets.Realestatevaluesandequitymarketvaluationshavebolsteredbothbusinessandhouseholdwealth--andtheoutlookforspendingin2014.Theperceivedpostponementof Fedtaperinggaverisetosignificantgainsinglobalbondandequitymarkets.Indeed,somehavequestionedwhethertherecoveryinhomepricesinsomeareashasmovedtooquickly. Anymovetonormalcy,howevergradual,willtestmarkets.ThedreadedtaperingwillremainakeyfocusofmarketsAstheaccommodativemonetarypolicystancepersistedinallmajocurrencyareas,sodidinvestors’desperatesearchforyield.Theunnaturaleasingstance,thoughnecessary,spurredanaberrantdemandforassetsintheriskierendofthespectrum.Byandlarge,suchassetshavesofarliveduptotheirpromise.Thenewyearmayagainchallengethatassumption.
 (pg 1)
InThisIssue
 (pg 2)
Go Figure…
(pg 3)
Engines of Growth
Easy money and the timing of the Fed’s shift continues to dominate across the globe. Repercussions from various political stalemates and serious geopolitical concerns are aggravating the problems of clearly insufficient growth in the world economy. And let’s not forget that many of the challenges cannot be resolved easily …
(pg 4)
Contact information:
 Abraham Gulkowitz
phone: 917-402-9039
 email:
 
abe@gulkowitz.com
 
The PunchLine...
3December 16, 2013
Go FigureSelect Market Considerations

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