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“Small Business Economic Trends”

“Small Business Economic Trends”

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Published by sam_rolley4112
NFIB
NFIB

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Published by: sam_rolley4112 on Dec 23, 2013
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05/15/2014

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SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS
Index ComponentSeasonally  Adjusted LevelChange from Last MonthContribution to Index Change
Plans to Increase Employment
 
9
%
 
4
 
40%
Plans to Make Capital Outlays2
4
% 1
10%
Plans to Increase Inventories
 0
%
 
1
 
10%
Expect Economy to Improve
 - 20
%
 -
3
 
-
30%
 
Expect Real Sales Higher 
 
3
%
 
1
 
10%
Current Inventory
 
- 4
% 1
10%
Current Job Openings
 23
%
2
 
20%
Expected Credit Conditions
 
-
 7
% 1
10%
 
Now a Good Time to Expand
 
9
%
3
 
30%
Earnings Trend
s
-
 
2
4
%
- 1
 
- 10%
Total Change -
10
 
100%
(Column 1 is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total change accounted for by each component;* is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation)
Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners
 
NFIB
 
S
MALL
 B
USINESS
E
CONOMIC
 T
RENDS
 
NFIB
 
S
MALL
 B
USINESS
E
CONOMIC
 T
RENDS
William C. DunkelbergHolly Wad
 
December 
 
201
3
 
 NFIB
S
MALL
B
USINESS
ECONOMIC TRENDS
_____________________
NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a questionnaire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve monthly SBET issues are $250. Historical and unadjusted data are available, along with a copy of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business Economic Trends items if you cite the publication name and date and note it is a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation. © NFIB Research Foundation. ISBS #0940791-24-2. Chief Economist William C. Dunkelberg and Senior Policy Analyst Holly Wade are responsible for the report.
IN THIS ISSUE
_____________________
 
   1   |    N   F   I   B   S  m  a   l   l   B  u  s   i  n  e  s  s   E  c  o  n  o  m   i  c   T  r  e  n   d  s
   M  o  n   t   h   l  y   R  e  p  o  r   t
S
UMMARY
OPTIMISM INDEX
Owner sentiment increased by 0.9 points to 92.5, a dismal reading as has  been the case since the recovery started. Over half of the improvement was accounted for by the labor market components which is certainly good news, lifting them closer to normal levels. Expected business conditions though deteriorated further - lots of dismal views of the economy coming next year. The Index has stayed in a “trading range” between 86.4 and 95.4 since the recovery started, poor in comparison to an average reading of 100 from 1973 through 2007.
LABOR MARKETS
  NFIB owners increased employment by an average of 0.05 workers per firm in November (seasonally adjusted), half the October figure, but  positive. Seasonally adjusted, 14 percent of the owners (up 2 points) reported adding an average of 3.7 workers per firm over the past few months. Offsetting that, 12 percent reduced employment (up 3 points) an average of 3.4 workers. Fifty-one percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 44 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for open positions. This is the highest level of hiring activity since October 2007. Twenty-three percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period (up 2 points), a positive signal for the unemployment rate and the highest reading since January 2008. Thirteen percent reported using temporary workers, down 2 points from October. Job creation plans gained 4 points, rising to 9 percent, reversing the loss posted in October.
INVENTORIES AND SALES
The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past 3 months compared to the prior 3 months was unchanged at a negative 8 percent. Fifteen percent still cite weak sales as their top business problem, but is the lowest reading since June 2008. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 1 point to 3  percent of all owners after falling 6 points in October (seasonally adjusted), a weak showing. The pace of inventory reduction continued with a seasonally adjusted net negative 7 percent of all owners reporting growth in inventories, 1 point worse than in October. The negative outlook for the economy and real sales prospects adversely impacted inventory satisfaction. The net percent of owners viewing current stocks as too low improved only 1 point, to negative 4 percent in November. Inventories are too large, especially given the poor outlook for sales improvements. The net percent of owners  planning to add to inventory stocks was a net 0 percent (up 1 point), no new orders for inventory when stocks are excessive compared to expected sales. T
his survey was conducted in November 2013. A sample of 3,938 small-business owners/members was drawn. Seven hundred seventy-three (762) usable responses were received – a response rate of 19 percent.

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