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InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch
ShallWeStayOrShallWeGo?
Re-migrationtrendsamongBritain’simmigrantsSUMMARY
TimFinch,MariaLatorre,NaomiPollardandJillRutter
MIGRATIONWWW.IPPR.ORG
 
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ShallWeStayOrShallWeGo?|
Executivesummary
Executivesummary
InMay2009,theOfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)publisheditsquarterlyreportonmigration.Itstarteditssummaryofstatisticsbynotingthefollowing:• Thenumberofnon-Britishcitizensemigratingrosebynearly30percentintheyearendingSeptember2008.EmigrationofcitizensoftheA8Accessioncountries[totheEuropeanUnion]doubledoverthesameperiod.• Immigrationofnon-Britishcitizens,includingA8citizens,changedlittleovertheyeartoSeptember2008.(OfficeforNationalStatistics2009)Herewassignificantevidencethatthemigratoryflowthatweterm‘re-migration’wasincreasing,whileimmigrationremainedrelativelystable.Thislatestdatathereforereinforcestheconclusionsandconfirmssomeofthepredictionswemakeinthisreport,inwhichwesetouttoquantifyandanalysere-migrationfromtheUnitedKingdom,andtounderstandwhatmotivatesimmigrantstoleave.Tounderstandtheimpactsthatmigrationhasonacountryitisimportanttostudyallitscomponents.ThereisnolackofscrutinyofimmigrationtotheUK;whiletheemigrationof Britishpeoplewascoveredinippr’smuchdiscussed
BritsAbroad
reportin2006,whichshowedthatbetween1966and2006theUKexperiencedanetlossof2.7millionBritishnationals.Bycontrast
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-migration(thereturnmigrationoronwardmigrationofpreviousimmigrantstotheUK)isasomewhatneglectedsubject–thoughinacademicandpolicycirclesthisisstartingtochange.GiventheunprecedentedlevelsofimmigrationtotheUKinrecentyears,itmaynotappearveryimportantthataproportionofthoseimmigrantsaresubsequentlyleaving.Indeedsomemightsupposeitisawhollygoodthingandwelcomethefactthattheoutflowisincreasing.Itisourcontention,however,thatpolicymakersshouldcareaboutre-migrationandknowmoreaboutthoseleaving.Thisisparticularlytrueatatimewhentheprocessesforcontrollingandmanagingimmigrationarebeingtightened,withtheaimofselectingimmigrants(oratleasteconomicmigrants)onthebasisoftheirskills.Internationalcompetitionforhighly-skilledmigrantsisintensifyinganditmakesnosensefortheUKtosucceedinattractingsuchmigrantsonlytolosethemquicklybecauseofre-migration.Theretentionofhighskilledmigrantsislikelytobecomeasleastasimportantasattractingtheminthefirstplaceasthetraditionalcountriesofimmigrationare joinedbyfastgrowingeconomieslikeChinaandIndia,allofwhichwillbetryingtolureadiminishingpoolofyoung,skilled,mobileindividualstodrivegrowth,pluggapsinlabourmarketsandoffsetageingpopulations.Attheveryleast,theUKmaywanttofindwaysofencouragingthesemigrantstoreturnagainsometimeinthefutureortomaintaincontactwiththemintheircountriesofonwardorreturnmigration.Ontheotherhand,theGovernmentmaywanttoincreasereturnmigrationamongsometypesofmigrant,whoatthemomenttendtostaylongerorsettleintheUK,eithertoaid
 
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1.Between1975and2007
developmentinthemigrant’shomecountryorbecausethemigrantisdeemedinsomewaytobe‘undesirable’–forexample,becauseheorsheisarefusedasylumseekeroran‘irregular’,low-skilledmigrant.Understandingwhatledre-migrantstodecidetoleavetheUKshouldbehelpfulinunderstandinghowtomakevoluntaryreturnpackagesorcircularmigrationprogrammesmoreattractive.Thisreportlooksindetailattheavailabledatasetssothatwecanseethenumbersre-migratingandgetaclearerpictureofwhoisgoingandwhy.Wehavealsogatherednewevidencethroughopensurveysandthroughresearchinsixcasestudycountries,whichinvolvedextensiveinterviewingofpeoplewhohavere-migratedfromtheUK.
Ourmainfindings
Overthelastthirtyyearsorso
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,therateofre-migrationfromtheUK(thatis,returnoronwardmigrationbynon-Britishnationals)hasbeenabouthalfthatofimmigration(3,186,200outcomparedwith6,189,900in).Re-migrationtrendsreflectimmigrationtrends,albeitwithatimelag.AsimmigrationintotheUKincreasessodoesre-migrationfromthecountry–thoughnottotheextentofthelattermatchingtheformer.TheUKhasbeenforsometimeacountryofnetinwardmigration–andofficialprojectionssuggestthistrendwillcontinue.However,since1975atleast61,000immigrantshavelefttheUKeachyear–withnumbersrisingsteadilyinthelastdecadetoapeakof194,000in2006–apopulationthesizeofthecityofPortsmouth.Thispeakislikelytohavebeenexceededin2008–withre-migrationtopping200,000.Emigrationofimmigrantsisthereforeagrowingphenomenon.pWiththeUKinrecession,wewouldexpecttoseenon-Britishimmigrationdecreasingoratleaststabilising(thereisevidencethatthishasstartedtohappenalready)whilere-migrationincreases.FactoringintheimmigrationandemigrationofBritishnationals,wewouldexpecttoseenetmigrationfallingoverthenexttwotofiveyears.However,wedonotexpecttheUKtoexperiencenetemigrationduringthisperiod.Theoverallrateofre-migration(emigrationofimmigrantstotheUK)islikelytobearoundorabove200,000inthenextcoupleofyearsandislikelytoremainabove150,000foratleastthenextfiveyears.MostimmigrantsspendlessthanfouryearsintheUKandsuchshort-staymigrationisincreasing(itdoubledbetween1996and2007),largelyasaresultofanincreaseinthenumberofforeignstudentsandoftemporarylabourmigrants,particularlyfromtheEuropeanUnion.Ofthemigrantswhoarrivedin1998,onlyaroundaquarterwerestillhere10yearslater.85percentofthecurrentmigrantswhotookpartinippr’sonlinesurveysaidtheywereonlyplanningtostayshortterm.EUmigrantsandmigrantsfrommoredevelopedcountriestendtostayforshorterperiodsandtobefirmerintheirintentiontore-migrate.Migrantsfrompoorercountriesaremorelikelytostayforlonger,orsettlepermanently–thoughaseconomiesindevelopingcountriesdobetterthisisstartingtochange.
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