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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
 
DailyTradingStance
 
Theme Comment
Silver already broke higher (now @ 16.50) and it looks like gold could test the 1006 level today. A break of 1006should be quite bullish. The USD TWI is about to break lower as well. We are less than 1% from a major support.AUDUSD is already higher. EURUSD is clearly threatening to take out 1.4450. This could mark another sign of globaloptimism lead stocks and commodities higher, as the USD is negatively correlated to global optimism.Data-wise this is a quiet day, but watch out for the US consumer credit, which could have an impact on the late-session US trading.The market is clearly dominated by irrational exuberance, but until we see credit markets deteriorate again, we havea buy-on-dips stance. This could continue for months.
Economic Data Releases
Country Time (GMT) Name Expectation Prior CommentUK 08:30 Industrial Production MoM (JUL) 0.2% 0.5%GE 10:00 Industrial Production MoM (JUL) 1.6% -0.1%CA 12:30 Building Permits (JUL) 0.4% 1.0%FX Daily stance CommentEURUSD 0/+ Buy dips down to 1.4280-90 suppt for a test of 1.44 then 1.4450.USDJPY 0/+ Expect suppt at 92.50-70 to hold for a rebound to 93.25 then 93.75.EURJPY 0/+ Suppt at 132.90 needs to hold for a test of 134.00-50. Below sees 132.30.GBPUSD 0/- Prefer to sell rallies to 1.6355-70 for a retracement sub-1.63 levels.AUDUSD 0/+ Looking for new 2009 highs. Buy dips to 0.8500-20 window for next leg abv 0.86.FX-Options CommentEURUSD Front end were given most of the day whereas backend saw bids. Looks like the market isswitching its midcurve positions to the backend. RRs were trading 0.2 favoring EUR calls.USDJPY Front end continues to see sellers aplenty despite spot pushing new lows. Mid curve hasnow followed lower so expect spot to do very little over the week.AUDUSD Gamma continues to be weak. There was a buyer of downside low delta 7250 for 13 Oct.Apart from that, mainly sellers in both directions.Equities Daily stance CommentDAX 0/+ Buy at the break of 5480 targeting 5510. S/L below 5463.FTSE 0/+ Buy at the break of 4944 targeting 4972. S/L below 4927.S&P500 0/+ Buy at the break of 1018 targeting 1028. S/L below 1012.Dow Jones 0/+Nasdaq100 0/+Commodities Daily Stance CommentGold 0/+ Buy at the break of 1006 and target 1020. Stop below 1000.Silver 0/+ Buy on dips towards 16.50 and target 16.70. Stop below 16.60.Oil 0/+ Buy at the break of 69 and target 72. Stop below 68.
Earnings Releases
CountryTime (GMT)Name EPS exp. EPS prior Comment
 
 1 
-0.500.511.522.5329-apr29-jun29-aug29-okt29-dec01-mar01-maj01-jul01-sep
US Breakeven 10 Year
USBreakeven 10 Year
 
40608010012014009-09-2008 09-11-2008 09-01-2009 09-03-2009 09-05-2009 09-07-2009
Top 100 Global Stocks CDS Index
Saxo CDS Index
 
05101520253035aug-07okt-07dec-07mar-08maj-08jul-08sep-08nov-08jan-09mar-09maj-09jul-09sep-09
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
EUR-USD OPTVOL1WEUR-USD OPTVOL1MEUR-USD OPTVOL1Y
 
01234567 jan-08apr-08jul-08okt-08jan-09apr-09jul-09
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
Moody BAA-US Generic Govt30 YearYieldMoody AAA-US Generic Govt30 YearYield
 
024681012nov-08 dec-08 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09
CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads
GDMA Hungarian - German Czech Republic-German Poland - German
 
0102030405060feb-09mar-09apr-09maj-09jun-09jul-09aug-09
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
CBOESPX VOLATILITYINDX
 
DailyTradingStance
 
Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the perceiveddefault risk in a company.
Now at 60.
 Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still
showing tight corporate debtmarkets.
 The VIX Index is
heading lower, now at 25.
 USD breakeven 10 Year
 –
an expression for measuring inflationexpectations.
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