Economic Consequences of a Pandemic by Geary W. Sikich

Embed Doc
Copy Link
Readcast
Collections

CommentGo Back

Download

Introduction

A paradigm is

broadly

defined as

:

a philosophical or theoretical framework of any kind. A paradoxon the other hand, is an apparently true statement or group of statements that leads to acontradiction or a situation which defies intuition. A paradox, while seemingly self-contradictory orabsurd in reality expresses a possible truth.At the time of this writing H5N1, known as Avian Flu or popularly as Bird Flu, has spread toapproximately 61 countries (see map below). It has one of the highest mortality rates of any fluvirus of the previous century. Even the Influenza (Spanish Flu) of 1918 did not have as high amorbidity and mortality rate as H5N1 (Avian Flu). We are seeing almost daily some revelationfrom the World Health Organization (WHO) or Centers for Disease Control (CDC) or the popularmedia. Source: World Health Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and national governmentsViruses mutate in order to adapt. It is the nature of a virus to survive and mutating is a virus’defense mechanism against manmade antibiotics. When H5N1 mutates to allow human to humantransmission the stage will be set for a global pandemic.The consequences of a rapid spread of H5N1 from a continuity planning perspective cannot beoverlooked. If natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes put people in a fight for theirvery survival, what would a pandemic do?

Why is so little attention being paid to H5N1?

At present the transmission of H5N1 has been limited to animal/human transmission. This haslimited the number of people who have become infected by the virus. Mortimer B. Zuckermanwrote in the New York Daily News on 20 June, 2005, in his article entitled, “

A NightmareScenario – H5N1 Pandemic”

the following excerpt:

Should we sound the alarm for a worldwide epidemic that might not occur? There is no choice withthe avian flu emerging from Asia. Should it adapt to be able to be transmitted from human tohuman, international health experts warn, bird flu could spark a global pandemic, infecting asmuch of a quarter of the world’s population and killing as many as 180 million to 360 million people – at least seven times the number of AIDS deaths, all within a matter of weeks.This is utterly different from ordinary flu, which kills between 1 million and 2 million peopleworldwide in a typical year. In the worst previous catastrophic pandemic, in 1918, more than 20million died from the Spanish Flu. That’s more than the number of people who died from the Black Death in the Middle Ages, and more people killed in 24 weeks than AIDS killed in 24 years.

Table 1 reflects the latest statistics on the Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO as of 31 August 2007.

Country

Total number of cases includes number of deaths. WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases.All dates refer to onset of illness.Please note that WHO reports only laboratory confirmed cases. This is a very important footnote.If there is no laboratory confirmation of the case than it may not get reported as H5N1. Which, if you choose to be speculative means that the above numbers are suspect as to the actual numbers thatmay be out there going unreported. This means that we really do not know with any accuracy whatis transpiring. Recently there are reports that Indonesia has experienced human-to-humantransmission of the virus. As of this writing, Indonesia is now denouncing these claims.In an article titled, “

Indonesia dismisses human transmission on bird flu

” published onSeptember 3, 2007 (www.chinaview.cn) Health Minister Siti Fadilah Syupari said:

“Indonesia confirmed that there has been no human-to-human transmission of avian influenzavirus in the country.” The minister told a press conference that thousands people had been killed should the transmission occurred already in Indonesia.“There is no human-to-human transmission in Indonesia,” she said. “There has been no virologist report, and it is still zero epidemiologist,” said Fadilah at a office here.She said that the conclusion of the experts from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center inSeattle, Washington last week could not be used to say that human-to-human transmission had already happened in Indonesia, as the expert only make their calculation mathematically. Theexpert found a statistical confirmation that H5N1 virus spread from human-to-human between asmall number of people within a family in North Sumatra, Indonesia, where eight people died in April last year.“That is only a statistical test,” said the minister.

In North Sumatra, the cluster contained a chain of infection that involved a ten-year-old boy who probably caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt, who had been exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces.

Economic Impact is Already Being Felt

In an article entitled, “Matthews borrows against turkeys” (By Iain Dey, Sunday Telegraph,published on 24/06/2007) the following excerpts reveal the economic impact that H5N1 is alreadyhaving:

Bernard Matthews, the poultry farmer whose eponymous empire was blighted by avian flu earlier this year, has been forced to refinance his business by securing its future against his stock of turkeys.Sales of the company’s “bootiful” turkeys have been hammered by the health scare. Recent research suggested sales of both frozen and fresh turkeys across the UK are down around 30 per cent in the wake of the outbreak. The last figures provided by the company suggested a 20 per cent plunge in sales.Bernard Matthews has now been refinanced through an asset finance deal struck with Burdale, asubsidiary of Bank of Ireland, and supported by a handful of other major international lenders.The loans have been secured against some of the company’s 56 farms, its plant and equipment, aswell as its livestock, according to banking sources.Matthews founded the business in 1950 with 20 turkey eggs and a second-hand incubator. Thebusiness turned over about £400m last year and employs more than 6,000 people worldwide. Thecompany produces 7m turkeys in the UK every year.The avian flu disaster is estimated to have wiped around £70m from Matthews personal fortune.The business is run from his Norfolk mansion, Great Witchingham Hall, set in 36 acres, which herestored from dereliction.

My colleague, John Stagl and I transcribed some notes as we were preparing to discuss theeconomic consequences of a pandemic at a luncheon in Chicago in 2006. We had come to theconclusion at the time, that a pandemic will have a domino effect worldwide. We all know that apandemic will create a unique set of conditions that impact society, the business markets andmedical support systems. One of the differentiating characteristics of a pandemic, unlike any otherdisaster, is its wide-spread impact. We have already seen that this impact has occurred withouthuman-to-human contagion occurring. The economic consequences to the poultry industry havebeen dramatic.However, let’s turn our attention to the human-to-human aspects of the post-pandemic period.While we know that the medical community will be one of the hardest hit areas, it is by no meansthe only area that will suffer extensive near-term and severe long term impact. The medical impact,for that matter it will most probably be the most short-lived impact factor of the pandemic (in termsof deaths, etc.) and post-pandemic periods (people will alter their lifestyles to, perhaps do with lessmedical services). The longer term ramifications will be felt economically throughout the world.Below is a list of some of the various elements that will feel the impact of a pandemic, either

of 00

Leave a Comment