GDELT Global Material Conflict Annual Trend Report: Year In Review 2013
This report reflects major trends in global Material Conflict in 2013 compared with 2012 as reported by the GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone)(http://gdelt.utdallas.edu/) event database. The top countries exhibiting the greatest increase in Material Conflict in 2013 compared with 2012 (and which had sufficient global newscoverage to analyze) are examined in more detail in individual Country Detail briefings on the following pages. To better approximate the most "important" developments of the year,this report is based on the aggregate volume of global news articles reporting Material Conflict events in each country, rather than on the raw number of unique events. For example,the 2011 Egyptian Tahir Square protest would count as only a single "event," which would make Egypt appear relatively stable from a raw event count standpoint, but by measuringthe volume of news coverage of that protest event, its global significance is immediately clear. Thus, from a technical standpoint, this report synthesizes macro-level change acrossthe entire global news system to identify those countries undergoing the greatest change in media coverage of Material Conflict events and thereby offers a reasonableapproximation of the global media consensus view of the most "important" emerging Material Conflict developments across the entire world.For each country, the light grey map at top left of its profile page shows all Material Conflict events from 2013 for that country and the surrounding region. The black map to its rightshows a gridded trend analysis where the region is broken into a regular grid and for each grid cell the difference in the number of Material Conflict events for that location in 2013 iscompared with 2012. Grid cells that have not changed substantially or for which few events were reported during either year are hidden, while cells with significant increases inconflict events are displayed in red and those with significant decreases are displayed in green. The size of the dot indicates the magnitude of the change, with larger dots indicatinggreater change. The first colored barchart on the left below the maps breaks down the affiliations of the Initiator (Actor1) and Victim (Actor2) of all conflict events for 2013 and 2012,examining changes in the actors involved. The next barchart breaks down all conflict events into the six root categories of Material Conflict. Finally, the last barchart shows therelative breakdown for all events, not just conflict events, of all 20 root event categories, showing how prominent conflict events were to the overall picture of this country in 2012-2013. Finally, at the bottom of the page is a timeline plotting a smoothed 48-hour rollowing window average of the number of articles reporting Material Conflict events for thatcountry over the two year period, contextualizing the significance of increases and decreases.Please note that that this report is designed specifically to identify emerging annual global conflict trends and thus countries with sustained ongoing conflicts may have a lowerranking than a country with far less violence if the levels of unrest in the country remained relatively stable between 2012 and 2013. In other words, this is not a report on the mostunstable countries, but rather a report on those countries undergoing the greatest change in media attention to their instability over the past year.This report is a highly experimental prototype so please use caution when utilizing its findings.
Change in Conflict Events 2012 to 2013 Worldwide
GDELT Global Material Conflict Trend Report: 2013http://gdelt.utdallas.edu