Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2009
Dr. Jagrook Dawra
1
• Base Line: “Worn
out Jeans”
2
• Base Line:
“Shreds from
Killer”
3
• Subhead: Live Life in Xs. X-
Dart Jeans
4
• Headline:
“Atleast the Jeans
are a perfect fit”
5
• Headline: “In 7.8
seconds, I
dropped weight!
And added
Curves”
• Bodycopy: “I just
zip up once a day.
No gyms. No
diets”
• Agency: JWT
6
• Headline: “Red
Loop”
• Subhead: “U in
the loop as Yet?”
• Agency: JWT
7
• Subhead:
“Sandblasted denim
jacket with
engineered pocket
detailing and anthra
tint. # JKM-622
Basic white cotton
linen shirt. Basic
five-pocket jeans
with flared hem. #
JSM-269 antique
blue sandblast.”
8
• Headline:
“Renewed 300%
Extra Style”
• Bodycopy:
“Classic Designs.
Renewed with
300% extra Style”
• Agency: ANC
9
Session 1: Introduction
• Can you identify the basis of
differentiation of the jeans brands on
previous slides?
10
• Basis of differentiation:
– Emotional
– Rational
11
Focus of different managers in the
marketing team
• Brand Manager- • Sales Manager
– Awareness – Selling
– Brand Associations – Sales team
– Quality Perceptions management
– Brand Loyalty • Advertising
– Brand Personality
manager
• Product Manager: – Creating a
Attributes and communication
their levels message in order to
– New product communicate the
development position of the brand
vis-à-vis its
12
Some questions that product
management seeks to answer
• Why does a consumer buy a product A rather
than a product B?
• What features/aspects of the product are valuable
to customers?
• What are the trade-offs that a customer make
while buying a product?
• How much is a consumer willing to pay for a new
feature of my product?
• What is the set of attributes that will maximize
consumer choice?
…
13
…
• What are the benefit segments in the market
place?
• What should the product line be to satisfy the
desires of the benefit segment?
• If my firm offers a product A and prices it Rs.
20.00 and the competitor offers a product B and
prices it Rs. 15.00, what is the likely market
reaction?
• What is the demand for a new product going to
be? How can I maximize it?
• How can I estimate the demand for a new-to-the-
world product?
14
Brand equity: Preference
Emotion
al
Ration
al
Bundle Preference
of due to
Attributes Attributes
Preference
Brand due to
Brand
15
• Is the basis of differentiation (rational
vs. emotional) dependent on the type
of product category?
• What products are more likely to be
sold on
– Rational basis (Attributes)?
– Emotional basis (Brand)?
16
Customer Focused Product
Planning
Our marketing
actions
Product, price
Customer Customer
Customers
preferences Choices
Multi-attributed Market
view shares
Competitor’s of products Sales
actions (Attribute Profits
Product, price
17
Multi-attributed view of
products
18
Multi-attributed view of
products
19
• Overall preference for a product=
preference for attribute 1 +
preference for attribute 2 +
preference for attribute 3…n
• Overall worth = sum of part-worths
• Conjoint: considered jointly
• Part-worths correspond to a single
respondent.
20
Part-worth function model
21
Part-worth function model
22
Which of these products would be
more preferred?
More
preferred 23
• Typically many factors or attributes
are included.
• Factors/ Attributes often include price
and brand name.
24
Deciding attributes
• Related to consumer choice (based
on qualitative market research like
FGDs or Interviews)
• Distinguish different product
offerings.
• Managerially relevant.
25
Deciding Levels of
Attributes
• Distinct, mutually exclusive, and
collectively exhaustive.
• Cover a range of interest (no
extrapolation)
• Try to keep the range of levels small
(say 3 per factor) and equal across
factors
26
Mo-bike Pump
27
28
Designing conjoint cards
• 4 attributes, 3 levels each. 3 x 3x 3 x
3 = 81 possible cards (too many)
• Choose a representative subset of
say 18 cards.
• Fractional Factorial design (conjoint
designer software given to you)
29
• Arrange the 16 cards given to you in
order of your decreasing preference.
Keeping the most preferred card on
the top.
• Also arrange the 4 shaded cards in
the order of decreasing preference.
• How did you do it?
30
Next Class
• Case: Sunbeam
31
32
33
Consumer choice
• Choice Share
• Market Share
34
Airstick makes a change
35
What would happen if a new
company Relistick were to
36
Case 1: Sunbeam
37
Brand
HLL Line
Breadth
D
e
pt
40
• What were the different attributes of
a food processor that were
considered?
• What were the levels of these
attributes?
• How many distinct processor
combinations are possible with these
attributes and levels?
• How many were chosen for the
41
• Mathematics behind Conjoint – Linear
Programming.
• Was there a qualitative study that
preceded the conjoint study? What
was the major objective for this
study?
• How were the huge number of
configurations reduced to 27?
42
• What data was collected?
• What was the relevance of each data
item to the study?
• How was the data collected?
• Notice how the job of sorting was
made easy for the respondents.
43
• What were the important attributes?
• What is the benefit of having
importance data?
• What were the segmentation results?
• How do you think they were found
out?
• Simulations?
44
• What makes you say that the results
of the exercise were valid (or not
valid)?
• What is base case simulation?
• Assumptions during simulations.
• Simulating “what if” scenarios.
• What is the benefit of simulations?
• How reliable are these simulations?
45
How does the software estimate
this?
• Uses linear
programming
• E.g. Card 11 > Card 7
• S(bookbag) + T(10
min) + E(Medium) +
P(500) > S(bookbag) +
T(0.5 min) + E(Difficult)
+ P(2000)
• 18C2 = 153 such pairs
• S(bookbag) + T(10
min) + E(Medium) +
P(500) = S(bookbag) +
T(0.5 min) + E(Difficult)
+ P(2000) + Z1 46
Deciding attributes
• Related to consumer choice (based
on qualitative market research like
FGDs or Interviews)
• Distinguish different product
offerings.
• Managerially relevant.
47
Deciding Levels of
Attributes
• Distinct, mutually exclusive, and
collectively exhaustive.
• Cover a range of interest (no
extrapolation)
• Try to keep the range of levels small
(say 3 per factor) and equal across
factors
48
Designing conjoint cards
• 4 attributes, 3 levels each. 3 x 3x 3 x
3 = 81 possible cards (too many)
• Choose a representative subset of
say 18 cards.
• Fractional Factorial design (conjoint
designer software given to you)
49
• Assignment
50
Designing Cards
51
Estimating part-worth
utilities
• Using Linmap
• Estimated for each respondent
• Enter data in a notepad in the
following format
– RES1 6 4 15 9 5 8 16 10 13 2 3 11 7 14
12 1 20 19 18 17
• Change the extension from .txt to
.dat
52
Assignment 2
• Rearrange the cards and rank order them.
• Input them into a text file and change its
extension from .txt to .dat
• Check for mistakes using the program
checkdat.exe
• What is the factor that you laid most importance
on? Is it consistent with your findings from the
analysis?
• Use Linmap.exe to get utility curves and
misorders
• Input the data of your friends.
• Use linmap.exe to get group utility curves.
53
Caution…
• Adding (or subtracting) the same constant to all
partworths of an attribute does not alter the
relative values of overall preference.
• The fact that part-worth for 0.5 min is positive
and 10 min is negative does not mean that the
respondent ‘likes’ 0.5 min and ‘dislikes’ 10 min.
zero point on the partworth scale is arbitrary.
• It is not meaningful to compare the part-worth of
the level of one factor with some partworth of
some other factor.
• Units of measurements are arbitrary.
Transformations can be done. But they should be
done to all partworths of all attributes.
54
Other simulations and
analyses
• Sensitivity of market share to other product
attributes.
• “Optimizing” product bundle
• Competitive price reactions
• Price equilibrium calculations
• Product line simulations
• Competitive product improvements
• Entry of new competitive products
• Cross tabulation of results against different
segments
55
Word of caution
• Market Share vs. Profits
• Run simulation for different concepts.
• Estimate costs of tooling/
manufacturing each concept.
• Compare profitability of alternative
concept.
56
Limitation of Conjoint
• Attribute list is not complete.
• Aesthetics, smell, taste, etc difficult to capture.
• Measurement, sampling errors are present.
• Does not include the effect of an innovative
attribute or level.
• How much does a consumer really value an
attribute?
– May vary from time to time and situation to situation.
• Cannot be used when the product category is so
radically new that customers don’t even know
how they may use the product.
• Cannot be used in image driven, holistic products
(e.g. perfumes, paintings)
• Full profile conjoint does not take into effect the
interaction effect between attributes.
• Gilligan Island Syndrome 57
Primary uses of conjoint
• Product line planning
• New product evaluation (concept
testing)
• Competitive analysis
• Pricing
• Benefit segmentation
58
New developments in
conjoint
• Full profile conjoint
• Regression based conjoint
• Trade – off tables
• Paired comparison
• Self explicated conjoint
• Hybrid methods
• Choice based conjoint
• Adaptive conjoint
• HB Conjoint
59
Brand equity
• Preference for the attribute “Brand”
60
Some suggested products for your
projects
• Hostel mess food. • Electric irons
• Hostels • Computers
• Students activity • i-phone
clubs • Students canteen
• Mobile phones
• Mobile services
• 2 wheelers
• Cars
• MP3 players
61
Case 2: Clark material
handling
62
Segmentation
63
Segmentation
• What is the relevant basis for
segmentation in product
management?
• Benefit Segments
64
Benefit Segments-
Computers*
• The Germans – “We want the best”
• The Indians – “We want the best
today and tomorrow”
• The Taiwanese – “We want it cheap
with a name”
• The Americans – “We want service
too”
66
How many segments?
• Dendogram
– How many
cluster?
• 27? 4? 2? 1?
67
How many clusters?
• B= between segment
variation
• W= within segment
variation
• K= no. of segments
• N= sample size
• tr= trace of the matrix
• Tr[B]= variation summed 68
• What are the benefit segments that
you have got for bicycle pump?
• What are the advantages of benefit
segmentation?
• How is it relevant to product
management?
69
Product planning in different
Shorter inter-purchase cycle
Lower prices, “softer” attributes
70
Product planning in different product
categories
Shorter inter-purchase cycle
Lower prices, “softer” attributes
71
Multidimensional Scaling:
Perceptual mapping
72
MDS Map (Mental map)
Outside
Going to church Oriented
Doing voluntary
service
Going to a beauty
parlor
Home 73
Oriented
Typical MDS questionnaire
74
• Brands may also form a part of the
attributes.
• SPSS or SAS may be used.
75
Exercise
• Eg. Toothpastes
– Germ killing
– Fresh breath
– Calcium
– Strong teeth
– White teeth
– Colgate
– Close up
– Pepsodent
76
77
How does rotation of axis help in
MDS
78
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
79
• Product Design
• Product Innovation
80
Idea generation
Is the idea worth considering?
Idea screening
Is the idea compatible with
the company’s objectives
strategies, and resources?
D R O P
Concept development and
testing
Which of the alternative
products would customers
be willing to try?
Marketing strategy
development
STP, 4 Ps
Business Analysis
Will this product meet
our profit goal?
81
Product development
Is the product technically
and commercially sound?
D R O P
Market testing Send the idea
Have sales met the back for product
expectations? Development?
82
Generating new ideas
• The largest single hurdle to new
product development is the paucity
of Ideas!!!
83
Idea Generation
Techniques
•Attribute listing
•Forced relationships
•Morphological analysis
•New contexts
•Mind mapping
84
Attribute listing
• List features of a product and
improve each and every feature one-
by-one.
– Improving patient experience.
85
1-
0- min
min
86
2- 6-
Some solutions
87
Forced Relationships
• While on the move a person needs
to:
– Stay connected
– Listen to music
– Stay organized
– Know where (s)he is
– Capture interesting instances
– Etc…
88
Morphological analysis
• Identify need
• Designing a storage cabinet for
Children
– Ikea
89
90
91
92
93
Reverse assumption
analysis
• Consumers have very strong
assumptions
– High price means high quality
– High power means low safety
– High power also means low fuel
efficiency
– Something user friendly is for amateurs
only.
– Anything that tastes good must be oily/
cheesy (not healthy)
• Subway
94
New contexts
• Washing machines
95
• Toilet papers
– Mexico
Mind Mapping
96
Creativity imperatives
• Small is the new big
– God is in the details.
• Empathy
– Person out vis-à-vis Organization in
• Finding yourself in the margins
– Seeing things afresh
– Having a beginners mind.
• Pick battles big enough to matter, small enough
to win.
97
Categories of New Products
• Cost reductions
• Repositionings
• Improvements to products
• Additions to product lines
• New product lines
• New-to-the-world
98
A framework and terminology for
•
Scope
Team size
Budget
Duration,
etc
BREAK-
More
THROUGH
Completely new
Product and
Processes
required Ri
Creativity sk
Process change
PLATFORM
Systems solution to
a product challenge.
Cross-
functional DERIVATIVE
Develop- Incremental
ment change
to existing product
Re required
tu One or two
rn functional
s MAINTAI
NENCE
Sustaining
Less
Routine
processes
100
101
Readings for the next class
• Case: Kirkham instruments
• 01 Conjoint note
• 02 Perceptual maps
• 03 christensen
• 03 enlightened experimentation
• 03 new product commercialization
mistakes
• 03 new product development
imperitive 102
Forecasting Penetration
103
Forecasting for existing
products
– Trend analysis
– Moving averages
– Exponential smoothing techniques
– Time series analysis
– Advanced econometric models
• ARMA, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, etc.
• All the above techniques need past
data to predict!!!
104
How do you forecast for a new-
to-the-world product?
• “The world has a potential market of
five computers”
– Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM
105
Why do we need to predict
penetration of new-to-the-
• Total market potential
– Capacity of the plant
• Rate of adoption
– Investment decisions
• Arvind mills
• Kellogs, India
106
107
Forecasting new-to-the-
world products
108
How do you forecast for a new-
to-the-world product?
• Diffusion Models
• Bass Diffusion Model
– Predict penetration based on the sales
of a similar product.
109
•m = market potential = maximum number of
consumers who will eventually adopt
•p = parameter denoting innovative tendency to
adopt.
•q = parameter denoting imitative tendency to
adopt
•Y
t-1 = cumulative sales at t-1
Ft-1 = fraction who have adopted at the end of
• 110
111
112
113
Estimation
114
• Calculate
values of m, p,
q for different
products
meant for
different
customer
segments.
115
116
Example: Satellite radio
• Calculate market size (m)
– Through an elaborate market research
involving 80 questions, 6000
respondents.
– 30 million
117
Calculating p and q by
analogy
Decide
Step
Calculate criteria
Establish
Step2:
1: Identify
finalobtain to
scoresp establish
some
weighted and
onpbasis similarity
products/
q for of
and of to
thesimilarity
products
markets/the new
from
segments
the product
new
previous
product
similar to
after
the
q to existing research
products
New-to-the-world
thorough
studies and give weights.
product
118
•m = market potential = maximum number of
consumers who will eventually adopt
•p = parameter denoting innovative tendency to
adopt.
•q = parameter denoting imitative tendency to
adopt
•Y
t-1 = cumulative sales at t-1
Ft-1 = fraction who have adopted at the end of
• 119
120
• To be able to do the exercise, you need to read:
• “Forecasting the adoption of a new product” example on page
6 to 8
• The exercise on e-books can be done on the same lines as the
above example.
• Market potential (m)
• = 111.3 M households X 67.8%internet penetration X
28% consumers who read recreational material on e-book
device
• =21M
121
122
123
124
125
Nestle Contadina
BASES Model
126
Johnson wax
127
Test marketing using
ASSESSOR
• Objectives:
– To test the potential of the new product
(acceptability, market share)
– To test the effectiveness of proposed
marketing strategy (advertising, positioning,
trial rate, repeat purchase rate, etc.)
• Key decision to take:
– Should the product be launched?
– Should the attribute(s) of the product be
changed?
– Does the marketing program require any
change?
128
ASSESSOR: 5 Tests
1. Initial Questionnaire – evoked set
2. Preference questionnaire – Conjoint
• Ad was shown
6. Ad recall
7. Laboratory purchasing
8. Brand ratings
129
1. Results: Market structure
– What were the factors that emerged?
– How were these factors arrived at?
– How was enhance positioned?
– How was agree positioned?
– Was cannibalization likely?
130
131
2. Results: Advertising
Recall
• What is recall?
• How is it measured?
• What attributes was Enhance
associated with?
132
3. Results:
Trial
• What was Enhance’s trial
rate?
• Was it sufficient?
133
4. Results: Repeat purchase
estimation
• Did Enhance live up to expectation?
• How did it compare with Agree?
• How do you increase repeat
purchase?
134
5. Results: Product
acceptance
• What was wrong with Enhance ads
135
6. Results: Market share
prediction
• Trial and Repeat model
• Preference Model
• Why were two models used for
market share estimation?
– Convergent Validity
136
Trial and Repeat Model
M=Market share
T=ultimate cumulative trial rate (penetration)
S= Ultimate repeat purchase rate among buyers who ever
made a trial purchase of the brand (retention)
137
Calculating T CU
FKD
T=FKD+CU-(FKD x
CU)
F= trial rate in ACCESSOR test-
ultimate trial rate that would
happen if all consumers were
aware of the Ad.
K=long run probability that a
consumer will become aware
of the Enhance
D=Proportion of stores that will
carry Enhance
C=proportion of the target
market that receives the
samples.
U=proportion of those receiving
138
Calculating S
139
Calculating S
140
Calculating S
S=retention rate
SB= switchback rate
R=repeat purchase rate
141
142
Calculating market share
using Preference model
• Conjoint to calculate preference
• Probability of choosing a brand given
the preference for the brand and
preference for competing brands
• Market share= proportion of
consumers for whom brand j is in the
evoked set * average probability of
purchase of brand j
143
144
7. Results: Cannibalization
• Using Conjoint.
– No significant cannibalization effect.
145
Key question!!!
• Should Enhance be launched in the present for
in the present way?
• Given the fact:
– Enhance MDS’ results were not exciting.
– Brand association results.
– Market share predictions were also not very
exciting.
• What should be done?
– Change:
• Attributes
• Ads
• Positioning strategy
• Something else (Brand, etc)
– Drop the product
146
• Was ASSESSOR helpful in taking an
appropriate:
– Product decision?
– Strategic decision?
147
Integrating competence,
customer needs and
competition with Product
148
Quality Function
Deployment
• Method to transform user demands
into design quality,
• To deploy the functions forming
quality,
• To deploy methods for achieving the
design quality into subsystems and
component parts, and ultimately to
specific elements of the
manufacturing process
149
Roof: This is the Customer
Correlation matrix. It Competitive
shows how the HOWs Assessment. It
Customer Provides customers’
conflict with one
requirements: "voice
another This section views on existing
of customer." It products. This matrix
focuses on
represents thedesign
improvement. uses questionnaires
"what's" of the It to elicit information
focuses on negative
system.
relationships in the
This section
design lists how Relationship Matrix:
Targets: It It occupies the middle
the company
summarizes thewill meet
the customer portion of the HOQ
conclusions of the diagram which is the
requirements
planning matrix.
•Top-level solution- largest portion. It uses
•Technical priorities the prioritization
independent
(relative metrics
importance of
•Product/service matrix. It shows how
each technical well customer
requirements
requirement)
•Product/service requirements are
•Competitive addressed by product
features or(relative
benchmarks
capabilities features
position of the existing
product)
•Targets (engineering
target values to be
met by the new
150
product design)
151
Car Door
152
All features are not equally
important
153
Customers evaluate
competition
154
Delivering/ Matching
Features
155
How engineering
decisions/ Features impact
156
Measurement is
important
157
Features could be
correlated
158
Establish costs and
Targets
159
Competition
160
Levels of competition
• What is our market?
• What is the market of Coke?
– Cola?
– Soft-drinks?
– Thirst-quenching drinks?
• What is the market of Harley Davidson?
– Bikes?
– Swimming pools?
• What was the market of:
– Floppy diskettes?
– CD?
– DVDs?
– Flash drives?
161
1st Level of competition
• Product form competition
– Companies offering a similar product or
service to the target market, utilizing a
similar technology, and exhibiting
similar degrees of vertical integration.
– Same features/ values, appealing to one
segment of the market.
– Diet Coke, and Diet Pepsi
162
2nd Level of competition
• Product category competition
– All the companies in the same product
or service category
– Similar features/ values, some
differentiated features appealing to
different segments of the market.
– Diet Coke, Diet Pepsi; regular Coke,
Pepsi, Thums-up.
163
3rd Level of competition
• Generic Competition
– All the products satisfying a particular
need
– Diet Coke, Diet Pepsi; regular Coke,
Pepsi, Thums-up; Nimbu pani, juices,
concentrates, other beverages.
164
4th Level of competition
• Budget Competition
– Competing for the customer’s purse.
– Diet Coke, Diet Pepsi; regular Coke,
Pepsi, Thums-up; Nimbu pani, juices,
concentrates, other beverages; Ice-
cream, Fast food, etc.
165
Newcomers to a market
1. They already sell to your customers,
but expand their participation to
include new customer functions
– Intel starts making hard disks
– Toothpaste manufacturer enters
mouthwash segment.
2. They already satisfy customer
functions that you satisfy, but
expand into your market.
– Intel makes chips for CNC machines
3. They already operate in upstream/
downstream businesses.
– Intel starts manufacturing PCs or HP
starts manufacturing its own chip
4. Enter an unrelated business
166
Enacting barriers for entry
• ‘Unique’ attribute or feature.
• Excellent quality perceptions for your
product.
• Patents and trademarks.
• Innovation driven product
management.
167
Differentiate the product
on emotional level:
Branding
168
• Basis of differentiation:
– Rational
– Emotional
Building Preference
Em
otio
nal
Ra
tion
al
Bundle Preference
of due to
Attributes Attributes
Preference
Brand due to
Brand
Washing machines
• Voltas
• LG
• Samsung
• “Two cars come off the same
assembly line, in the same American
pant. A Japanese nameplate goes on
one [Mitsubishi Eclipse], an American
nameplate goes on the other
[Plymouth Laser or Eagle Talon], and
people prefer the Japanese version.”
• Voltas Ltd. manufactures not just its
own refrigerators in its factory, but
has also signed OEM contracts with
LG and Samsung to make
refrigerators in their Hyderabad
plant. Therefore the same plant is
manufacturing 3 different brands of
refrigerators, but consumers have
different preferences for the 3 brands
Source: Business Standard, “Voltas Inks two –
year OEM fridge deal with Samsung”, October 14, 2003
Is there a difference between
the tastes of:
• Coke
• Pepsi
• Thums – Up?
• Results of the blind taste test.
How does branding help?
• Awareness
• Associations
• Loyalty
• Perceived quality
• Brand Personality – self concept
congruence
When to brand?
• To create awareness
• Impulse/ low involvement products
• When scope for rational differentiation is limited.
• Entry barriers for competitors.
• Inelastic consumer response to price increases.
• Larger margins
• Greater trade cooperation and support
• Possible licensing opportunities
• Additional brand extension opportunities
• Greater customer loyalty
• Less vulnerability to competitor actions
Portfolio analysis
BCG Matrix
Question Marks
? STARS
Market Growth
Rate
0
0.1x 1x 10x
Relative Market Share
GE Matrix
High Attractiveness
Strong Competitive Position
• Provide maximum
investment
• Diversify
• Consolidate your
position to focus your
resources
• Accept moderate near-
term profits to build
share
High Attractiveness
Average Competitive Position
• Defend strengths
• Shift resources to attractive
segments
• Examine ways to revitalize the
industry
• Time your exit by monitoring for
harvest or divestment timing
Medium Attractiveness
Weak Competitive Position
• Harvest or divest
Size of the market
Market Share
Brand Line
HLL
Breadth
D
ep
th
New variants,
divestment.
“prefer my brand”
200