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Artzrouni Komlos Model of the World-System Economic and Demographic Development:a Re-Interpretation

Artzrouni Komlos Model of the World-System Economic and Demographic Development:a Re-Interpretation

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Published by Leonid Grinin
We analyze a Malthusian simulation model proposed by Artzrouni and Komlos to describe the World-System economic and demographic development from the Neolithic Revolution through the Industrial Revolution. The model points out the conditions of the "escape" from the Malthusian trap. The slow accumulation of capital and the buildup of the population of the capital-producing sector eventually enable the population to overcome the constraints of the hostile economic environment that were prevalent up the Industrial Revolution. The dynamics of accumulation of capital and the growth of human population generated by this model can be re-interpreted against the background of the production revolutions’ theory that includes the Agrarian, Industrial, and Information-Scientific Revolutions.
We analyze a Malthusian simulation model proposed by Artzrouni and Komlos to describe the World-System economic and demographic development from the Neolithic Revolution through the Industrial Revolution. The model points out the conditions of the "escape" from the Malthusian trap. The slow accumulation of capital and the buildup of the population of the capital-producing sector eventually enable the population to overcome the constraints of the hostile economic environment that were prevalent up the Industrial Revolution. The dynamics of accumulation of capital and the growth of human population generated by this model can be re-interpreted against the background of the production revolutions’ theory that includes the Agrarian, Industrial, and Information-Scientific Revolutions.

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Published by: Leonid Grinin on Sep 14, 2009
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05/11/2014

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In Dmitriev M. G., Petrov A. P., Tretyakov N. P. (eds.), Proceedings of the 2
nd
International conference “Mathematical Model-ing of Social and Economic Dynamics (MMSED-2007). 20-22 June 2007, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: RUDN. Pp. 52–54.
ARTZROUNI - KOMLOS MATHEMATICAL MODELOF THE WORLD-SYSTEM ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHICDEVELOPMENT: A RE-INTERPRETATION
L. E. Grinin
Volgograd Center for Social Research
We analyze a Malthusian simulation model proposed by Artzrouni and Komlos to de-scribe the World-System economic and demographic development from the Neolithic Revolu-tion through the Industrial Revolution. The model points out the conditions of the "escape"from the Malthusian trap. The slow accumulation of capital and the buildup of the populationof the capital-producing sector eventually enable the population to overcome the constraints of the hostile economic environment that were prevalent up the Industrial Revolution. The dy-namics of accumulation of capital and the growth of human population generated by this modelcan be re-interpreted against the background of the production revolutions’ theory that includesthe Agrarian, Industrial, and Information-Scientific Revolutions.
In a Malthusian simulation model proposed by M. Artzrouni and J. Kom-los [1] there is described mathematically the World-System economic and demo-graphic development from the Agrarian (the Neolithic) to the Industrial Revolu-tion (from
c.
8000 BCE to 1900 CE). The model takes into account the ‘incessantcontest’ between the population growth and the means of subsistence that charac-terized that period. In their model Artzrouni and Komlos divide economy intotwo sectors: 1) a subsistence sector; 2) a sector producing all other goods, includ-
 
In Dmitriev M. G., Petrov A. P., Tretyakov N. P. (eds.), Proceedings of the 2
nd
International conference “Mathematical Model-ing of Social and Economic Dynamics (MMSED-2007). 20-22 June 2007, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: RUDN. Pp. 52–54.
ing capital, or the capital-producing sector. The model describes the proportions between these two sectors and conditions of the ‘escape’ from the Malthusiantrap. In this model the ‘escape’ from the Malthusian trap depends on a sufficientaccumulation of capital and a buildup of the population in the capital-producingsector. According to the authors such conditions of the ‘escape’ from the Malthus-ian trap were created as a result of the Industrial Revolution that could be con-sidered as the outcome of an accumulation process by which the aggregate capitalstock increased steadily.Below I present the system of Artzrouni and Komlos’ equations. The out- puts
Q
 A
(t)
and
Q
(t)
of the subsistence sector and the capital-producing sector at period
are described by equations of the Cobb - Douglass type:
Q
(t 
) = C
1
K(t)
α
1
P
l
(t)
α
2
,(1)
Q
(t 
) = C
1
K(t)
α
1
P
l
(t)
α
2
,(2)where 1) K(t), the aggregate capital stock at period t, is accumulated through thefollowing processK(t+1) = K(t) +
λ
(t) Q
l
(t),(3)where
λ
(t) is the savings rate prevailing at period t;2) P
l
(t) and P
A
(t) are the populations of the two sectors at time t and may bethought of as the urban and rural populations; P(t)
=
P
l
(t)
+
P
A
(t)
 
is the total population;3) C
1
,
C
2
,
α
 
1
,
α
 
2
,
β
1
,
β
2
are positive constants with
α
1
 
+
α
2
 
=
β
1
 
+
β
2
= 1;P(t + 1) = (1 + r(t + 1)) P(t),(4)where r(t + 1) is the decennial growth rate at period t + 1.
 
In Dmitriev M. G., Petrov A. P., Tretyakov N. P. (eds.), Proceedings of the 2
nd
International conference “Mathematical Model-ing of Social and Economic Dynamics (MMSED-2007). 20-22 June 2007, Moscow, Russia. Moscow: RUDN. Pp. 52–54.
Artzrouni and Komlos next define the per capita output of the subsistencesector asS(t) = Q
A
(t)/P(t) = C
2
K(t)
ß
1
P
A
(t)
ß
2
/P(t),(5)
r(t+
1
 ) = r(t) – e(t)
,(6)where e
(t)
is a nonnegative random variable generated by a Monte Carlo typesimulation. In sum, Artzrouni and Komlos have
S(t) ≥ S 
*
 
=>
r(t+
1
 ) = r 
*
,(7a)
S(t) < S 
*
=>
r(t +
1
 ) =r(t) – e (t)
,(7b)when the population is in a Malthusian crisis, Artzrouni and Komlos haveP
A
(t) = P
A
(t 1),(8)P
I
(t) = P
I
(t 1) + (P(t) P(t 1)).(9)Then Artzrouni and Komlos define the quantityU(t) = 1/1 + 4e
-
400(S*-S(t))
.
(10)If the above procedure resulted in a strictly positive perturbation e(t),Artzrouni and Komlos suggest drawing a random number v(t) from a truncated(the positive side) normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1. Artzrouni andKomlos then postulate that e(t) is proportional to v(t) U(t). In addition e(t) in-creases with y(t), the number of periods (decades) the population has been in acrisis; e(t) is given bye (t) = 0.1
*
v (t) U(t) (1
+
e
0.15(y(t)-5)
).(11)For the savings rate
λ
(t) Artzrouni and Komlos choose a function of theform
λ
(t) = 0.01 + 1.778
*
10
-26
 
e
0.05756t
,(12)

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