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The Wisdom of Crowds

The Wisdom of Crowds

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Published by David
The latest addition to the psychology journal articles collection was inspired by the exploits of the acclaimed psychological illusionist Derren Brown, who created a real stir last week when he "predicted" the outcome of Britain's National Lottery.

See following link for full details, including a video of the "lottery prediction" live.

http://www.all-about-psychology.com/derren-brown.html

Derren Brown put forward the "Wisdom of Crowds" as a possible explantion of how he was able to "predict" the lottery numbers. In explaining the Wisdom of Crowds, he drew explicitly on a fascinating statistical discovery made by Francis Galton.

As much as I would love to think that Derren had been able to predict the lottery by employing the wisdom of crowds, this explantion was in my humble opinion simply elegant misdirection. Nevertheless, Francis Galton's original article is an intriguing one and thanks to Derren Brown it can now be appreciated and considered once again.
The latest addition to the psychology journal articles collection was inspired by the exploits of the acclaimed psychological illusionist Derren Brown, who created a real stir last week when he "predicted" the outcome of Britain's National Lottery.

See following link for full details, including a video of the "lottery prediction" live.

http://www.all-about-psychology.com/derren-brown.html

Derren Brown put forward the "Wisdom of Crowds" as a possible explantion of how he was able to "predict" the lottery numbers. In explaining the Wisdom of Crowds, he drew explicitly on a fascinating statistical discovery made by Francis Galton.

As much as I would love to think that Derren had been able to predict the lottery by employing the wisdom of crowds, this explantion was in my humble opinion simply elegant misdirection. Nevertheless, Francis Galton's original article is an intriguing one and thanks to Derren Brown it can now be appreciated and considered once again.

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: David on Sep 15, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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03/05/2013

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www.all-about-psychology.com
 
Presents
Vox Populi (The Wisdom of Crowds)
ByFrancis Galton (1907)First Published in Nature, No. 1949, Vol. 75, 450-451
 
In these democratic days, any investigation into the trustworthiness andpeculiarities of popular judgments is of interest. The material about to bediscussed refers to a small matter, but is much to the point.A weight-judging competition was carried on at the annual show of theWest of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition recently held atPlymouth, A fat ox having been selected, competitors bought stampedand numbered cards, for 6d. each, on which to inscribe their respectivenames, addresses, and estimates of what the ox would weigh after it hadbeen slaughtered and " dressed." Those who guessed most successfullyreceived prizes. About 8oo tickets were issued, which were kindly lent mefor examination after they had fulfilled their immediate purpose. Theseafforded excellent material.The judgments were unbiased by passion and uninfluenced by oratoryand the like. The sixpenny fee deterred practical joking, and the hope of aprize and the joy of competition prompted each competitor to do his best.The competitors included butchers and farmers, some of whom werehighly expert in judging the weight of cattle; others were probably guidedby such information as they might pick up, and by their own fancies.The average competitor was probably as well fitted for making a justestimate of the dressed weight of the ox, as an average voter is of  judging the merits of most political issues on which he votes, and thevariety among the voters to judge justly was probably much the same ineither case. After weeding thirteen cards out of the collection, as beingdefective or illegible, there remained 787 for discussion. I arrayed them inorder of the magnitudes of the estimates, and converted the cwt.,quarters, and lbs, in which they were made, into lbs., under which formthey will be treated.
 
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