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A Simplified Method of Hyperbolic values of n between O and 1.0 , Place these overlays over
Decline Curve Analysis actual production rate-time curves plotted on graph paper
of the same size and then shift them, keeping the axis of
Present dcclinc curve analysis methods encompass both the overlay and actual data parallel. Find the curve that
nlathemaficat mrd graphical approaches. ” ‘“ Most engi- best fits and note n and a, and the octwrl rate q, corres-
neers now usc only the constant pcrcwrt decline (cxponen. ponding to a q/q, of 1.0.
tial) analysis.” The proposed curve-fittiilg technique is illustrated in
The method presented herein proposes thr usc of several Fig. 3. The plotted points are actual production vs time.’
simple hyperbolic curves plotted on transparmrt paper. The curve shown is the fit obtained using an overlay of
Once these basic curves have been prepared, a cttrvc- the n = 0.5, rI, = O.001/day curve from Fig. 1. The posi-
matching technique can bc used to oblain hyperbolic Cx: tion of the axis of the subject plot ncccssary to give this
trapolations with about tht same effort required for a con- curve fit indicates that the decline rate of 1.5 months after
s[mrt percentage decline extrapolation. Jan., 1941, is O.001/day. This corresponds to the (q/q. )
In hyperbolic decline the dcclinu rate varies with thu = 1.0 or f) time of the overlay curve, The actual protluc-
production rate. tion rate corresponding to (his point is about 1.800 bbl of
oil a month (BOPM ). This curve frt was ChOSL’11 so tha[
n
-.[1 “
.
()
a,”-(i)’””’”” ‘“”””
where a is the declirw riitc whun the production rate is q,
(1) Fig, 3 would be readable. In actual practice it is advisable
to fit the data with a curve whose zero point is as CIOSC
as possible tu the last data point to obtain the grca!cst
and a, and q, arc the duclinc rate ami production rate cxtmpolation accuracy. The zero time may actually cor-
when time /=0. The constwrt n is bctwccn O and 1,0 and rwpond to some time buyond the last data point.
is cnaractcristic of a particular hyperbolic dcclinc, This With the following data fixed by the tiurvc match of
n can bc shown to bc equal to the change in (l/d) with Fig. 3 [n = 0.5. a, = O.OO1/day and q, = 1,800 flOPM ).
time, a production rate can be calculated for any future time.
If the time of interest falls within the time limit of the
,1= _,+! I/(/]
(2)
r-””’’””’””””
It also can he shown mathematically that fLlr hyperbolic . . . . .
decline 1
. .
(3)
“=[l+:,rfl]”’”” “ “
Also. the total production JV,. during the hyperbolic de.
:.. . .
cline from a rate q, to a rate q is
(4) . . . . . . . .
I
The proposed curve-matching method offers a simple.
efiicient and effective solution to the curve-fitting prob-
lem. A plot of production rate vs time is prepared on
semilog paper. Using a set of general, preconstructed de-
cline curves, each representing a different combination of
?7and a,, the best fit to the production curve can be found.
.. 4, 0, =.000 c?/Doy
Fig. 1 illl~strates a group of such curves reprewrting an 6, o,=.0006/Doy
n of 0.5 and a variety of initial decline rates. Note that 8, 0,=.0006/ Day
data for such curves can bc calculated from Eq. 3 by using 10, o,=.0010/ Doy
negative times anti defining a, as the dcc[inc rate when
q/q, is 1.0.
---’ --! .-. —
Once the constants n and a, and the producing rate
I
corresponding to a q/q, of 1.0 has been obtained by curve
fitting, the future production rates, reserves and remaining
life can be calculated from Eqs. 3 and 4 or obtained
graphically from a series of curves illustrated by Fig. 2. 1 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -lo 0
The procedure for determining the best fit of the rate- # in Months
time curve is relatively simple. Make transparent overlays Fig. l—Hyperbolic decline jactors for negative times
of a series of figures (such as Fig. 1) representing various and n = 0.5.
2 5
Lo
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Curve2, 0,=.0002/DOy
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,, 4, 0,=.0004/Day – -.+- . [O(j
0.1 ..- “ 6, 0,..00061 O0y ——. ---— 3000 -.T~.
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,, 8, a,..0008/D0y :--.$-”;: :
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— -2- 60 0
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Date in Mon. - Yr.