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A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union

A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union

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The paper assesses the potential for a monetary union in Asia by evaluating the progress of business cycle synchronization among 10 major East Asian countries.
The paper assesses the potential for a monetary union in Asia by evaluating the progress of business cycle synchronization among 10 major East Asian countries.

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Published by: Asian Development Bank on Jan 17, 2014
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A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union
Hyeon-seung Huh, David Kim, Won Joong Kim, and Cyn-Young Park No. 385 | January 2014
 ADB Economics  Working Paper Series
 
 
ADB Economics Working Paper Series
A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union
Hyeon-seung Huh, David Kim, Won Joong Kim, and Cyn-Young Park No. 385 January 2014
Hyeon-seung Huh is Professor at the School of Economics of Yonsei University, Republic of Korea; David Kim is Senior Lecturer at the School of Economics of the University of Sydney, Australia; Won Joong Kim is Associate Professor at the Department of Economics of Konkuk University, Republic of Korea; and Cyn-Young Park is Assistant Chief Economist, Economics and Research Department at the Asian Development Bank.  The authors thank Thomas Willet and James Morley for helpful comments. This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Government of the Republic of Korea (NRF-2012S1A5A2A01016560).
 
 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org © 2014 by Asian Development Bank January 2014 ISSN 1655-5252 Publication Stock No. WPS146258 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.  ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Note: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars.
The ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken by the  Asian Development Bank (ADB) staff, consultants, or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development problems, particularly those facing the Asia and Pacific region; as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The series aims to enhance the knowledge on Asia’s development and policy challenges; strengthen analytical rigor and quality of ADB’s country partnership strategies, and its subregional and country operations; and improve the quality and availability of statistical data and development indicators for monitoring development effectiveness. The ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a quick-disseminating, informal publication whose titles could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals or chapters in books. The series is maintained by the Economics and Research Department.
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