"Obama Leaves His Space: Washington Intends To Put On Hold Construction of Anti-

Missile Defense System in Poland and the Czech Republic"

Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online
by Andrey Terekhov

Moscow
18 Sep 09
pp1,7

On the threshold of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to New York, the
United States has announced its readiness to postpone plans for the deployment of
anti-missile defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic. Washington has
not rejected the idea entirely, but is signalling that for the time being it may
restrict itself to building an anti-missile defense in the Mediterranean region.
Russian experts assess this as a positive step enabling Moscow to place its hopes
in the beginning of meaningful dialogue with Washington. Such dialogue might lead
to agreement between the sides on the deployment of a joint anti-missile defense
system and enable them to resolve other strategic issues.

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and General James Cartwright, vice chairman
of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, held a press conference yesterday devoted to
anti-missile defense. Several hours prior to the press conference, information
agencies reported that an American delegation was conducting negotiations in
Poland and the Czech Republic. Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer stated that US
President Barack Obama had phoned him on Wednesday to inform him that deployment
of the radar system in the Czech Republic was being postponed. A similar signal
was received in Warsaw. George Bush's project proposed the stationing of 10
interceptor missiles in Poland and a powerful radar in the Czech Republic which,
the Bush Administration asserted, should protect the United States and American
allies in Europe from the Iranian missile threat.

According to the American Wall Street Journal, proceeding from the latest
assessments of Iran's missile capabilities, Washington has decided that a greater
threat to America's allies in Europe at present comes from Iranian short- and
medium-range missiles. For this reason, the Obama Administration will switch its
focus to deployment of a regional anti-missile defense system for the continent.
Officials in Moscow believe that US plans were aimed at undermining the
capabilities of Russian nuclear deterrence forces.

Israel, Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria as an Alternative to Poland

In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Viktor Yesin, former chief of the

General Staff of Strategic Rocket Forces, remarked that he viewed the decision of
the Obama Administration with cautious optimism. He indicated that the situation
was developing in a way that is positive for Russia. "But I would not assert that
the project in Poland and the Czech Republic is completely terminated. It has
been postponed. In this regard, Obama has set the task of developing alternative
scenarios, which affords the hope that the Americans will definitively reject
future deployment of the radar system in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor
missiles in Poland," the colonel general stated. Only after it becomes clear that
the alternative scenarios will be acceptable to Russia will we be able to say that
Russian diplomatic efforts have been successful.

According to Viktor Yesin, the American plans for deployment of a regional anti-
missile defense system incorporate a deal for the sale to Turkey of American
Patriot PAC-3 systems costing $7.8 billion. "The Americans believe that the
danger presently issuing from Iran's missile forces can be neutralized through a
regional anti-missile defense system. This envisages the deployment of Patriot
systems in Israel (which has already been accomplished) and also in Turkey. It
cannot be ruled out that the new THAAD [Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense
System] anti-missile defense system is deployed in Bulgaria and Romania. This is
a more sophisticated air defense system," the expert stated. "The sea component
of the regional system will consist of ships outfitted with the Aegis system and
improved (second modification) Standard-3 complexes." This will permit the
establishment of an effective anti-missile defense system in regions of the Black
Sea and Mediterranean Sea, capable of countering Iranian short- and medium-range
missiles. The speed-related parameters of these anti-missile defense assets do
not enable them to intercept Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Long-range missiles may appear in the Islamic Republic no sooner than four or five
years from now, Viktor Yesin predicts. This is precisely the time frame available
to Moscow and Washington to reach agreement and implement a mutually advantageous
air defense project that would ensure protection from future Iranian
intercontinental missiles. The important thing, according to the specialist, is
to establish a joint center for data exchange and missile threat warning. This
center would enable us to track the development of missile technologies in the
world and afford realistic assessments of the threats. Unless this initial step
is undertaken, it will not be possible for Moscow and Washington to create a joint
air defense system.

Expecting a "Grand Deal"

Professor Aleksey Bogaturov, vice chancellor of MGIMO [Moscow State Institute for
International Relations], also cautioned against reaching hasty conclusions before
Moscow received the applicable American documents and examined them thoroughly.
After all, they might very well contain new American positions that are
unacceptable to Russia.

One way or another, Washington's decision not to station air defense elements in
Eastern Europe can hardly be seen as evidence that the current US Administration
has a better understanding of Russia's concerns. Every meaningful decision made
by the White House over the past 20 years, experts in US affairs assert, has been
motivated mainly by internal considerations.

The Republican administration of George Bush was an advocate of the concept of

excessive security. The Democrats cast doubt on the advisability of achieving
this super-security at the cost of heightened tension in relations with other
states and large financial expenditures. Professor Bogaturov believes that the
Obama decision should be examined in the context of the internal political
"revisionism" of the occupant of the White House, which has been a feature of
every new American administration. "Obama is showing that he is a revolutionary
who has not only new ideas, but also the audacity to carry them out. He is not
afraid of the critics," stated Aleksey Bogaturov in conversation with Nezavisimaya
Gazeta.

Nonetheless, the expert believes that this move by Obama, if it comes to pass,
must undoubtedly be evaluated as a positive one. After all, it would open the way
for a serious conversation between Moscow and Washington which the two sides have
not had in a long time. This is a stimulus for Russian diplomats to activate the
negotiations process with the Americans. But at the same time, our negotiators
should be looking attentively at what linkage the Americans will attach to their
decision on anti-missile defense. Aleksey Bogaturov conjectured that Moscow can
expect a serious, candid discussion with the Americans on Iran. "The game is
worth the candle. Such substantive dialogue is necessary," the expert noted.

Analysts believe that this step undertaken by Washington may well be viewed within
the framework of a "grand deal" hypothesis with Moscow, i.e., a package resolution
of the basic problems that are burdening Russian-American relations. In addition
to the Iranian nuclear program, the list includes the question of a future arms
control regime. Citing a military-diplomatic source in Moscow, the Interfax-AVN
[Military News Agency] reported yesterday that "Washington's rejection of plans to
deploy strategic anti-missile defense facilities in Europe will facilitate
preparation of a new Russian-American agreement on the reduction of strategic
offensive arms (START)." The source noted: "In essence, the anti-missile defense
question remains at present practically the only serious disagreement in
negotiations on a new START Treaty, insofar as Russia views the stationing of
elements of an American anti-missile defense in Europe as a threat to its national
security."

Specialists believe that in the event of a "grand deal," the Americans would
certainly present Moscow maximal demands, complete satisfaction of which would not
conform to Russia's national interests. Depending on the conditions, the sides
could examine issues either in a package or individually within the framework of
meaningful dialogue. It may well be that the latter option affords better chances
of achieving a compromise resolution.

A New European Approach by the White House

In the meantime, the decision of the Obama Administration to postpone plans for
the deployment of anti-missile defense bases in Poland and the Czech Republic is
prompting questions with respect to Washington's policy towards Eastern Europe. A
great deal of material has appeared in the press concerning the "special
relationship" of the Bush Administration with countries of the former Eastern
bloc. These relations were indeed singular in nature, if we recall how the
Republicans skillfully took advantage of aspirations of the Poles and Czechs to be
needed by the one remaining superpower. In 2003, when the pillars of the Old
World -- France and Germany -- suddenly opposed the Bush decision to invade Saddam
Huseyn's Iraq, a fitting opportunity emerged for the Eastern Europeans. What
could more tightly secure the new bonds between Washington and the New Europe than
dispatching East European soldiers to Iraq and emplacing US strategic bases in
Poland and the Czech Republic?

Having established normal relations with his French and German colleagues, Obama
may stop segregating Europe into Old and New and may advance the idea of
consolidation of his European partners within the framework of the European Union
and NATO. It is another matter that in the opinion of experts, excessive
solidarity of the Europeans may complicate dialogue between Moscow and the
European Union.

Western specialists are not inclined to exaggerate the military-political

consequences of Washington's potential action on anti-missile defense. Doctor Ian
Anthony, director of the Program for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation of Weapons
of Mass Destruction at the Stockholm Institute for the Study of World Problems,
stated to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that what is at work here is an attempt by Obama to
change the dynamics of a zero-sum game. "The Obama Administration inherited a
situation where the impulse generated in the 1990s to create a joint security
structure in Europe disappeared. The situation is mindful of a zero-sum game
where the central European countries and Russia have begun to think about one
another as rivals," Doctor Anthony stated. "They interpret certain events as
'gains' and others as 'losses.' The anti-missile defense question is being
examined in this light."

The expert emphasized that the United States has not abrogated supplemental
agreements with the Poles and Czechs aimed at convincing them of American
readiness to afford additional protection. Washington's decision answers specific
concerns relating to anti-missile defense, but it is inadequate to regulate a more
profound problem -- restoration of a positive dynamic of cooperation in the
security sphere and the European arena, the expert summarizes.