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n enomz lndhl ebt n qthppz }jkqlh j`hn3 pfnpqhbqlh `b wfnp pfhz dhljhuh j} jo pfhjt dh}p jophth}p/ Pfnp khno}pfhz qnz npphopjbo pb fbw bpfht} kjgfp thnmp je pfhz mfbb}h pb `b boh pfjogbt nobpfht/ Pfb}h “bpfht}‛ nth nozboh dhljhuh` pb dh n qtb}qhmpjuh }xq+qbtpht bt bqqbohop/ Lbbijog np fbw pfhjt jophth}p} jopht}hmp bt mbllj`h j}dn}jm pb n}}h}}jog qbphopjnl bxpmbkh} be `hmj}jbo knijog/ Pb ghp n gbb`gtjq bo wfnp qhbqlh nth ljihlz pb `b th~xjth} t}p nqqtbvjknpjog wfnp pfhz dhljhuh ndbxp pfh }jpxnpjbo no` wfnp pfhz wnop pb ghp bxp be jp/ Dz h}pj+knpjog mnthexllz qhbqlh‚} wnop} no` dhljhe}, nozboh mno knih n thljndlhebthmn}p be wfnp hnmf no` huhtz boh be pfhk wjll `b/ No` je zbx mno qth+`jmp wfnp wjll fnqqho, pfho zbx mno nl}b qth`jmp wfnp wjll fnqqho je zbxnlpht wfnp qhbqlh dhljhuh ndbxp n }jpxnpjbo/ Pfj} j}, jo }fbtp, fbw wh mnox}h pfh }nkh lbgjm dbpf ebt qth`jmpjbo no` ebt hogjohhtjog pfh expxth/J‚ll qtbuj`h n kbth `hpnjlh` hvnkjonpjbo be gnkh pfhbtz jo pfh ohvp pwbmfnqpht}, dxp t}p, n} qtbkj}h`, lhp kh jllx}ptnph wfnp J‚k pnlijog ndbxpwjpf pfh hvnkqlh be fbw dh}p pb dxz n ohw mnt/N ohw mnt qxtmfn}h j} n mb}plz dntgnjojog hvqhtjhomh ebt kb}p be x} dh+mnx}h kb}p be x} nth dn` np jp/ N ljpplh }ptnphgjm thn}bojog mno gb n lbog wnz pb jkqtbuh pfh hvqhtjhomh/ Je zbx ebllbw pfh j`hn} fhth, zbx wjll obp bolz fnuh n fnqqjht pjkh dxzjog n mnt, zbx‚ll nl}b qnz n lbp lh}} kbohz/Ohw mnt} nth kb}plz dbxgfp jo boh be pwb wnz}/ Kb}p be x} gb pb n `hnl+ht}fjq, ph}p+`tjuh n uhfjmlh, knzdh enll jo lbuh wjpf jp, no` hogngh jo n kb}pxoqlhn}nop ohgbpjnpjbo buht pfh qtjmh/ N }knllht oxkdht be x} fnph pfnp
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The Predictioneer's Game by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (excerpt)
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de…
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