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N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H
Paul L. Kasriel, Chief EconomistPH: 312.444.4145plk1@ntrs.comSeptember 2009
 ©2006 Northern Trust Corporation
northerntrust.com
U.S. Economic and Interest Rate OutlookThe Shoals of Depression Have Been Avoided, but the EconomyStill Faces Strong Headwinds
 
2
Northern Trust Global Economic Research
We have just weathered the longest (19 months?) and deepestrecession in the post-WWII era.
Real Gross Domestic Product
% Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.Chn.2005$0505050505050 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics1612840-41612840-4
 
3
Northern Trust Global Economic Research
In August, the ISM-Mfg. Composite Index popped above 50 for thefirst time since January 2008.
ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite Index
SA, 50+=Increasing
AUGULUN
09
MAYPRAREBANECOVCTEP
Source: Institute for Supply Management /Haver Analytics5652484440363256524844403632
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