CONFIDENTIAL To: Cain for Congress From: Jill Normington Date: January 20, 2014
The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the Second Congressional District of Maine. Interviews were conducted January 13-15, 2014. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
A Note on Methods: As always, we made a conscience effort to create an unbiased turnout model. Turnout decisions are always a blend of science and art and in each case we erred on creating a model favorable to Senator Troy Jackson. This poll models a turnout scenario with the following geographic distribution: Penobscot County 20.1%, Rest of Bangor media market 28.1%, Androscoggin County 18%, Rest of Portland media market 22.3% and Aroostook County 11.5% (in the 2002 Democratic Primary Aroostook County accounted for 11.3%). The survey contains just 54% women while the typical Democratic primary in Maine-02 tends to be closer to 56% women.
Emily Cain is in a very strong position to win the Democratic Primary
in Maine’s Second Congressional District this June. Cain begins the race with an advantage over all other contenders and the fundamentals of the race favor her candidacy.
Cain has a broad base of support and
leads 32% to 17% over Troy Jackson.
She leads among voters in all age groups and sports a 24-point advantage among women.
Cain even leads among voters in union households
by a 14-point margin, despite Jackson’s high profile AFL-CIO endorsement. Among voters who already know both Emily Cain and Troy Jackson, Cain leads 57% to 23%.
Cain appeals to voters across the entire district
. Cain leads by at least 10 points in every region except Aroostook County. Jackson dominates Aroostook County leading 71%-14% there. In comparison, Michaud received only 66.3% of the vote there in 2002. Jackson is by no means shortchanged there either in support or contribution to the overall electorate in Presque Isle and he still trails Cain by a double-digit margin overall. The explanation is simple. Cain does nearly as well in Penobscot County as Jackson does in Aroostook (she leads 57%-10% in Penobscot) and Penobscot has more votes.
Some conventional wisdom about this ideological nature of this district is plain wrong
Democratic primary voters in ME-02 prefer a Democrat who is liberal on social issues to a Democrat who is conservative on social issues by more than a 2-to-1 margin, support requiring background checks on all gun purchases, support the Affordable Care Act and are pro-choice. Moreover,
even in a general election ME-02 is majority pro-choice and has been for the last 12 years