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2009Confidential and Proprietary – Do not disclose outside government-
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Ridership estimates based on a full complement of services after an initial ramp-up period are12.1 millions (in the year 2025).Many national and State-level goals will be achieved. HSR is among the most energy efficientmodes of transportation. Equivalent greenhouse gas and other vehicle emissions will be reduced.Preliminary estimates show that HSR will generate 24% of the emissions compared to thosesame trips made by car or by air. At the same time, currently forecasted roadway and airportcongestion will be mitigated, making the implementation of HSR accrue benefits to those modes.Also, these trips will be safer. Up to 17 fatalities and 1332 injuries will be avoided for 2030, asan example.Stations will catalyze the redevelopment of host communities. Opportunities for economicdevelopment, in terms of over 68,000 jobs in construction and over 145,000 jobs in operationsand maintenance will draw workers from all socio-economic segments.
The length of the alignment, combined with the populations of the cities served as well as thelimited airport and roadway capacity along the corridor, are strong indicators of a successful highspeed rail service. Operations planning will be optimized in several ways to cater to theresidential, business and visitor market segments, in ways to increase ridership and revenue. Theprovision of a wide array of amenities and class/price options, along with reliable, on timeservice will create market attractiveness and confidence.
Project management approach
The success of implementing High Speed Rail in Texas area rests upon the integrated design,operations, financing, and environmental assessment disciplines experienced in high speed railprojects. This is proven through SNCF participation in many successful projects in many parts of the World. In the United States, governmental agency involvement is important for structuringthe required up front capital investment, and to partner in the environmental clearance andapproval processes. While the particular form of the most suitable organization is subject todetailed technical, financial and legal studies, it is conceived that a Special Purpose Companywould operate the HSR service and finance a part of the initial capital costs.
The business case
Capital costs have been estimated at $13.8 billion in $2009. Included within this amount are $1.4billion for rolling stock and $0.8 billion for right-of-way and acquisition. The remainder is inguideway and civil construction ($8.3 billion), systems and maintenance facilities ($2.7 billion)and stations ($0.6 billion). Estimates of revenue, annual operating and maintenance costs aresuch that as ridership matures and service is fully established, revenue will exceed O&M costsand will also cover a portion of the capital costs to the extent that public funding will be requiredfor only 62 % of the initial capital investment.In present value discounted at 4%, the benefits of the HST 220 concept would represent in $2009170 % of the public funds required, and would cover public funding in less than 15 years.
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