Tip Mellman Iran Survey Jan 24 2014

Final Frequencies (n=800)
NATIONAL SURVEY
The Mellman Group, Inc.

January 24, 2014
Hello. My name is _[FIRST NAME ONLY]_. I'm calling long distance from MRS. We are conducting a
public opinion survey and I would like to ask you some questions. We are not selling anything, and I will not ask
you for a contribution or donation. Could I please speak with [ASK FOR NAME ON LIST. IF NOT
AVAILABLE, SCHEDULE TIME FOR A CALLBACK. YOU MAY ONLY SPEAK WITH ANOTHER
HOUSEHOLD MEMBER IF THEIR NAME IS ON LIST.] First, are you registered to vote at this address?
[RECORD, BUT DO NOT ASK, GENDER:]
Male.......................................................................................... 48
Female ...................................................................................... 52
TOT
TOT
very
fav
smwt
fav
smwt
unfav
very
unfav
dont
know
never
heard
30
21
15
2
34
4
21
27
19
3
34
7
13
15
9
6
11
26
34
21
7
11
5
47
2
13
27
36
14
14
0
3
23
42
1
2
IP
[ROTATE BY QUESTION Q.1-Q.6]

FAV
UNFAV
1. __Barack Obama ................................................................
51
47
2. __John Kerry ................................................................
48
37
3. __Benjamin Netanyahu ................................34
16
4. __Hassan Rouhani ................................................................
5
17
5. __Israel ................................................................
68
16
6. __Iran................................................................
12
73
IP
Overall, do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable
impression of
? [READ NAME FROM LIST BELOW] If you haven't heard of the person,
place,{6}, or if you don't know enough about that person or place to have an impression,{5}, just say so and
we will move on.
IP
IP
The United States often conducts diplomatic relations with countries around the world. Now I am going to
read you a list of countries. After I read the name of each country, I would like you to tell me how much
you trust that country to live up to and abide by diplomatic agreements the U.S. negotiates with them. Do
you trust [READ NAME FROM LIST] a great deal, some, not too much or not at all to live up to and
abide by diplomatic agreements the United States makes with them?
TOT
TRUST
TOT
DONT
TRUST
[RANDOMIZE BY QUESTION Q.7-Q.14]

7. __Russia ................................................................ 44
54
8. __Iran................................................................................................
15
83
9. __Israel ................................................................ 79
18
10. __China................................................................ 42
56
11. __Mexico................................................................ 69
29
12. __North Korea ................................................................
7
90
13. __Great Britain ................................................................
94
5
14. __South Korea ................................................................
67
29
Great
deal
Some
Not
much
Not at
all
DK
VOL
4
2
37
6
15
1
68
25
40
13
42
36
54
6
26
42
26
23
10
28
16
14
2
13
28
60
8
28
13
77
3
16
2
2
3
2
2
3
1
4
National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)
Which of the following countries do you think poses the biggest threat to the security of the United
States? [ROTATE AND READ LIST]
North Korea ................................................................28
Iran ................................................................................................
23
Russia ................................................................................................
5
Pakistan ................................................................................................
6
Iraq ................................................................................................
6
China ................................................................................................
18
Syria ................................................................................................
6
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 8
16.
What kind of job has President Obama and his administration done when it comes to dealing with
Iran? Have President Obama and his administration done an excellent, good, only fair or poor job
when it comes to dealing with Iran?
6
Excellent ................................................................................................
Good................................................................................................
24
Only Fair ................................................................................................
29
Poor ................................................................................................
37
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 4
30
TOTAL POSITIVE ................................................................
TOTAL NEGATIVE ................................................................
66
17.
As you may know, the United States and most other countries in the world have imposed economic
sanctions on Iran to pressure it to end its efforts to develop nuclear weapons Do you favor or oppose
the economic sanctions that the U.S. has placed on Iran? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that
way strongly or not so strongly?
68
Favor, strongly ................................................................
Favor, not so strongly ................................................................
16
Oppose, not so strongly................................................................
5
Oppose, strongly ................................................................
6
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 6
83
TOTAL FAVOR ................................................................
TOTAL OPPOSE................................................................
11
18.
In your opinion, should the United States now [ROTATE] __strengthen economic sanctions on
Iran, __reduce economic sanctions on Iran, or should sanctions remain at the same level they are
now?
Strengthen ................................................................ 39
Reduce................................................................................................
14
Remain the same ................................................................
38
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 9
IP
IP
IP
IP
15.
19. In the long run, which is more dangerous for the United States:
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__STATEMENT A: Allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
OR
__STATEMENT B: Targeted military strikes against Irans nuclear facilities to try and stop them
from developing nuclear weapons
[IF STATEMENT A/B, ASK:] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?
Statement A, strongly............................................... 47
Statement A, not so strongly .................................... 7
Statement B, not so strongly .................................... 11
Statement B, strongly............................................... 26
DK/Refused [VOL] ................................................. 9
TOTAL STATEMENT A...................................... 54
TOTAL STATEMENT B...................................... 37
IP
IP
20. Which of the following should be the most important goal of the U.S. in dealing with Irans [eeRAHN] nuclear program?
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__STATEMENT A: To prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it requires military
strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
OR
__STATEMENT B: To avoid military strikes on Iran, even if it means allowing Iran to acquire
nuclear weapons.
IP
IP
DK [VOL]................................................................ 10
21. In trying to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, should the United States
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__Allow Iran to keep its nuclear infrastructure and stockpiles of enriched uranium in place and lift
economic sanctions against Iran so long as Iran agrees to not build nuclear weapons, limits future
uranium enrichment and submits to international inspections of its nuclear facilities.
OR
__Insist that Iran dismantles its nuclear infrastructure and give up the ability to build a nuclear
weapon before any economic sanctions are lifted.
IP
[IF ALLOW WITH INSPECTIONS/DISMANTLE NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE, ASK:]

Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?
Allow Iran to keep nuclear infrastructure & rely on inspections, strongly............................. 24
Allow Iran to keep nuclear infrastructure & rely on inspections, not so strongly .................. 8
Dismantle nuclear infrastructure, not so strongly ................................................................... 14
Dismantle nuclear infrastructure, strongly.............................................................................. 49
DK [VOL] .............................................................................................................................. 6
ALLOW IRAN TO KEEP NUKE INFRASTRUCTURE/RELY ON INSPECTIONS . 32
DISMANTLE NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................. 62
How much, if anything, have you heard about an interim agreement between the United States and
Iran that places some temporary restraints on the pace of Irans nuclear program in exchange for
some relief from economic sanctions on Iran? Have you heard a great deal, some, not too much or
nothing at all about this agreement?
A great deal ................................................................ 15
Some ................................................................................................
32
Not too much................................................................29
Nothing at all................................................................23
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 1
TOTAL HEARD ................................................................
47
TOTAL HADNT HEARD ................................................................
52
23.
As you may know, the United States and five other world powers recently reached an interim
agreement with Iran that would reduce some economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for a
commitment by Iran to temporarily limit some parts of its nuclear program, while a final agreement
is being negotiated. Do you favor or oppose this agreement? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel
that way strongly or not so strongly?
Favor, strongly ................................................................
34
21
10
Oppose, strongly ................................................................
27
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 8
TOTAL FAVOR ................................................................
55
TOTAL OPPOSE................................................................
37
IP
IP
IP
22.
24.
How likely do you think it is that Iran will live up to and abide by this interim agreement? Is it very
likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely that Iran will live up to and abide by
this agreement?
Very likely ................................................................ 6
25
Somewhat likely................................................................
Somewhat unlikely................................................................
21
Very unlikely ................................................................
45
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 3
TOTAL LIKELY ................................................................
31
TOTAL UNLIKELY ................................................................
66
IP
IP
[SPLIT SAMPLE J]
25. Which of the following statements about the interim agreement with Iran comes closer to your point
of view:
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__STATEMENT A: The United States made the right decision by reducing sanctions and financial
pressure in exchange for an agreement by Iran to put some temporary limits on its nuclear program,
while a final agreement is being negotiated.
OR
__STATEMENT B: The United States should have required Iran to completely abandon its nuclear
program before agreeing to reduce sanctions.
IP
IP
DK [VOL]................................................................ 4
[SPLIT SAMPLE K]
26. Which of the following statements about the interim agreement with Iran comes closer to your point
of view:
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__STATEMENT A: The United States made the right decision by reducing sanctions and financial
pressure in exchange for an agreement by Iran to put some temporary limits on its nuclear program,
while a final agreement is being negotiated.
OR
__STATEMENT B: The United States should have pushed for more concessions from Iran before
agreeing to reduce sanctions.
DK [VOL]................................................................ 5
[RESUME ASKING EVERYBODY]

27. As of right now, the Obama Administration has shared the agreement with Iran only with some
Members of Congress. Do you favor or oppose releasing the text of the entire deal to the public?
[IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?
Favor, strongly ................................................................
57
10
10
Oppose, strongly ................................................................
16
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 6
TOTAL FAVOR ................................................................
68
TOTAL OPPOSE................................................................
26
How much have you heard about legislation in Congress that could trigger new sanctions on Iran?
Have you heard a great deal, some, not too much or nothing at all about this legislation?
A great deal ................................................................ 9
Some ................................................................................................
22
Not too much................................................................31
Nothing at all................................................................37
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 2
TOTAL HEARD ................................................................
30
TOTAL HADNT HEARD ................................................................
68
IP
IP
28.
IP
IP
29. Just so we are on the same page, there is legislation in the Senate sponsored by 59 Senators from both
parties that would trigger new sanctions on Iran if they cheat on the terms of the current interim
agreement, fail to negotiate a final deal to eliminate their ability to make nuclear weapons, or if they
are found to be involved in a terrorist act against the United States during nuclear talks. Do you favor
or oppose this legislation? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so
strongly?
Favor, strongly ................................................................
64
14
5
Oppose, strongly ................................................................
10
DK [VOL] ................................................................ 7
TOTAL FAVOR ................................................................
78
TOTAL OPPOSE................................................................
15
Now I am going to read you a list of things that could happen if Iran is able to develop a nuclear weapon.
After I read each, please tell me if that concerns you a great deal, some, not too much or not at all?
30. __Iran could give nuclear weapons to terrorist groups trying to
attack the United States and our allies..............................................
31. __Iran is developing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles that could
enable them to launch a nuclear attack on the United States by
2015 ..................................................................................................
32. __A nuclear-armed Iran could launch nuclear weapons against
Israel, our closest ally in the region..................................................
33. __Allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons could embolden
other countries to develop nuclear weapons, triggering an arms
race in one of the most dangerous parts of the world.......................
Great
deal
Some
Not
much
Not at
all
DK
VOL
78
15
73
14
70
20
71
18
34.
35.
36.
37.
__ Iran could use nuclear weapons to attack American troops in

the Middle-East ................................................................................
__ Iran could become a regional superpower that is even harder
to deter than it is now .......................................................................
__ Americas influence around the world would be undermined ....
__Iran would have the capability to menace oil suppliers,
causing the price of oil and gasoline to increase, threatening the
global economy ................................................................................
75
15
66
58
21
21
8
11
4
8
1
1
64
21
38. Now I am going to read you statement by supporters and opponents of increasing economic pressure
against Iran:
IP
IP
IP
IP
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__Supporters of the bipartisan bill say it strengthens diplomacy and increases our chances of peacefully
stopping Iran. In fact, it is Congressional sanctions that finally pushed Iran into negotiations, and it is
pressure that will keep them there and convince them to compromise. Given Irans history of lying
about its nuclear program and violating agreements, Iran cannot be trusted. Their threats to walk away
from talks are not new and not credible they need a deal more than we do. Unfortunately, the
interim agreement has too many loopholes, relieves financial pressure prematurely, and undercuts the
leverage we need to end the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. Passing legislation laying out sanctions
should Iran cheat, or refuse a final agreement, balances the interim deal, supports our diplomacy and
will help get a good final deal.
OR
__Opponents of the legislation say the interim agreement negotiated between the United States and
Iran, and the current diplomatic process to reach a final agreement, is the best way to ensure that Iran
will not develop nuclear weapons in the future, and those pushing for more sanctions on Iran are putting
the country on a path to war. Part of the agreement states that no new sanctions are to be imposed
while the permanent agreement is being negotiated. Therefore, new sanctions now will cause this deal
to fall apart and Iran will continue developing nuclear weapons. Moreover, the United States risks
losing support from our allies who made these sanctions successful. We can always restore and
strengthen sanctions against Iran if things change, but we should give this agreement a chance to work
first.
Now that youve heard arguments on both sides of the issue, do you favor or oppose this legislation
triggering new sanctions against Iran? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so
strongly?
49
Favor, strongly ................................................................
Favor, not so strongly................................................................
14
11
Oppose, strongly ................................................................
17
DK [VOL]................................................................ 9
TOTAL FAVOR ................................................................
63
TOTAL OPPOSE................................................................
28
[SPLIT SAMPLE J]
39. Which of the following statements about Iran comes closer to your point of view:
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__STATEMENT A: Iran is using these negotiations to stall as it continues to develop its ability to
make nuclear weapons.
OR
__STATEMENT B: Iran is negotiating in good faith and will eventually give up their ability to
IP
DK [VOL]................................................................ 7
IP
IP
[SPLIT SAMPLE K]
40. Which of the following statements about Iran comes closer to your point of view:
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__STATEMENT A: Iran is using these negotiations to stall as it continues to develop its ability to
OR
__STATEMENT B: Iran is negotiating in good faith and may eventually give up their ability to
make nuclear weapons
IP
DK [VOL]................................................................ 9
[RESUME ASKING EVERYONE]

Now I am going to read you a list of actions that some people have suggested Iran should be required to
take while it is negotiating with the United States on its nuclear program. After I read each, please tell me
whether you would favor or oppose requiring Iran to take that action before the U.S. signs a final
agreement with Iran on lifting sanctions [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE] Do you feel that way strongly or not so
strongly?
TOT
TOT
Str
Favor
NSS
Favor
NSS
Opp
Str
Opp
DK
VOL
88
83
74
12
87
77
76
12
73
10
IP
IP
IP

FAV
OPP
41. __ Iran should be required to cease all acts of
terrorism against the United States................................94
3
42. __ Iran should be required to freeze all efforts to
develop long-range ballistic missiles while
negotiations are taking place ............................................................
91
6
43. __ Iran should be required to recognize the right
of Israel to exist ................................................................
86
9
44. __ Iran should be required to allow international
inspections of all Iranian nuclear facilities................................
95
3
45. __ Iran should be required to cease all efforts to
enrich uranium while negotiations are taking
place................................................................................................
85
11
46. __ Iran should be required to place all nuclear
materials currently possessed by Iran under the
control of international monitors ................................ 88
8
47. __ Iran should be required to destroy all
centrifuges that can be used to enrich uranium to
the point it can be used in nuclear weapons ................................
83
12
IP
48. Which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view:
[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
__ STATEMENT A: For over 15 years, Congress has been the prime mover of sanctions on Iran
and should approve a final deal before sanctions are lifted, because it will help ensure we get the best
possible deal and do not leave Iran with the ability to make nuclear weapons in the future.
OR
__STATEMENT B: President Obama should have the power to make an agreement with Iran,
without going back to Congress to repeal sanctions, because meddling by Congress could endanger
negotiations between the United States and Iran, nullifying the current deal and enabling Iran to restart its weapons program.
DK/Refused [VOL] ................................................. 6
THANK YOU. THE FEW REMAINING QUESTIONS ARE FOR STATISTICAL PURPOSES ONLY.
10
49. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or

something else? [IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong
(Republican/Democrat) or a not so strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT ASK:]
Would you say that you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats?
strong Republican..........................................................
19 31
not so strong Republican ...............................................
5
independent leans Republican .......................................
6
Independent ................................................................28
independent leans Democratic.......................................
6
not so strong Democrat..................................................
6
strong Democrat ............................................................
23 35
[VOL] dk/na/other.........................................................
6
IP
IP
50. Do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or very
conservative? [IF MODERATE, ASK:] Do you tend to lean toward the liberal or conservative side?
very liberal................................................................ 11 31
somewhat liberal............................................................
15
5
moderate leans liberal....................................................
moderate ........................................................................
25
moderate leans conservative..........................................
5
somewhat conservative..................................................
18
19 41
very conservative...........................................................
[VOL] DK/ref ...............................................................
3
IP
IP
51. What is your age? [CODE ACTUAL AGE. REFUSED=99] ______

18-29..............................................................................
12
30-39..............................................................................
14
40-49..............................................................................
17
50-59..............................................................................
25
60+............................................................................. 32
Dk/refused [VOL] .........................................................0
52. What was the last level of schooling you completed?

3
less than high school graduate.......................................
high school graduate......................................................
19
some college ................................................................25
college graduate.............................................................
35
post-graduate ................................................................
17
1
ref...................................................................................
53.
Are you Latino, Hispanic, or of Spanish descent?

yes..................................................................................
8
92
no ...................................................................................
DK/ref [VOL] .......................................................... 1
54.
11
Are you black, white, Asian, Native American or some other race?
11
black ..............................................................................
white ..............................................................................
80
Asian..............................................................................
1
Native American............................................................
0
other...............................................................................
5
DK/unsure [VOL] .................................................... 0
Refused [VOL]......................................................... 2
IP
55. If you were asked to use one of these given names for the economic class you belong to, which would
you say you belong inupper class, upper middle-class, middle class, working class, or lower class?
upper class ................................................................ 2
upper middle-class.........................................................
15
middle-class................................................................53
working class ................................................................
24
lower class ................................................................ 4
[VOL] dont know ........................................................
2
[VOL] other................................................................ 0
How often do you attend religious servicesmore than weekly, weekly, a few times a month, seldom,
or never?
more than weekly ..........................................................
10
30
weekly............................................................................
few times a month .........................................................
14
seldom............................................................................
23
never ..............................................................................
13
8
dk/refused ......................................................................
IP
57.
IP
IP
56. Are you Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, Mormon, or something else? [IF SOMETHING ELSE] Are
you Christian or non-Christian?
Protestant .......................................................................
29
Catholic..........................................................................
22
Jewish ............................................................................3
Mormon .........................................................................2
[IF SOMETHING ELSE]
23
Christian ........................................................................
Non-Christian ................................................................
10
[VOL] DK/refused ........................................................
12
58. And last, what is your zip code? ______

Thank you for answering these questions.

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Final Frequencies (n=800)

The Mellman Group, Inc.

[ROTATE BY QUESTION Q.1-Q.6]

[RANDOMIZE BY QUESTION Q.7-Q.14]

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

[IF ALLOW WITH INSPECTIONS/DISMANTLE NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE, ASK:]

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

[RESUME ASKING EVERYBODY]

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

__ Iran could use nuclear weapons to attack American troops in

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

[RESUME ASKING EVERYONE]

[RANDOMIZE BY QUESTION Q.40-Q.46]

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

49. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or

51. What is your age? [CODE ACTUAL AGE. REFUSED=99] ______

52. What was the last level of schooling you completed?

Are you Latino, Hispanic, or of Spanish descent?

National Survey The Mellman Group, Inc. (January 21-23, 2014)

58. And last, what is your zip code? ______

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