TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

Interested Parties Christina Coloroso, DCCC Director of Targeting and Analytics Sink Maintains Lead over Jolly in FL- ! S"ecial #lection Jan$ary %&, %' (

De)ocrat Ale* Sink leads +e"$,lican lo,,yist David Jolly ,y fo$r "oints -(./ to (0/, 1/ $ndecided2, as of the DCCC3s latest I4+ s$rvey of likely voters in Florida3s $"co)ing s"ecial election for 5S Congress6 Tho$gh Sink sho7s strong crossover s$""ort and advantages a)ong key voting ,locs, 7ith si* 7eeks to go ,efore #lection Day, the ca)"aign cannot take anything for granted in 7hat is likely to ,e a close contest6 According to the s$rvey, Sink is 8$ickly a""roaching a )a9ority of the vote and is ahead of Jolly ,y fo$r "oints -(./ to (0/, 7ith 1/ $ndecided26 Sink "erfor)s es"ecially 7ell 7ith Inde"endent voters, leading Jolly ,y a )argin of %( "oints -00/ to ! /26 She f$rther receives )ore than do$,le the cross over s$""ort fro) voters of the o""osite "olitical "arty than her o""onent6 :hile % / of +e"$,licans "lan to s$""ort Sink, only / of De)ocrats s$""ort Jolly, confir)ing Pinellas Co$nty voters3 ,elief that Sink is the right candidate to advocate for all residents and 7ork across "arty lines to get things done6 ;ota,ly, Sink also )aintains an i)"ressive lead a)ong senior voters< one of the largest vo=ng ,locs in the electorate6 A)ong voters ages >0?, Sink3s lead e*"ands to si* "oints -(./ to (!/26 Sink has "ersonally 7on this district t7ice ,efore6 In her %''1 ca)"aign for Chief Financial @fficer, Sink carried the district 7ith 0(6'/6 In %' ', Sink 7on the district 7ith 0 6 / of the vote, des"ite losing the state7ide g$,ernatorial ca)"aign to +ick Scott6 Aer track record certainly gives her advantage, ,$t s"ecial elections are often )ore conservative in nat$re than ty"ical general elections6 Biven the f$nda)entals of the district, Sink3s overall lead and s$""ort a)ong key voting gro$"s indicate she has an advantage over Jolly heading in to #lection Day6 The dyna)ics of a s"ecial election )ean the ca)"aign )$st contin$e to co))$nicate 7ith voters to ens$re she closes the race victorio$sly6
The data in this memo is from a survey of 527 likely special election voters conducted January 24, 2014 in Floridas 1 th !on"ressional #istrict$ %espondents information came from the voter field and respondents &ere intervie&ed over the phone via an automated survey$ The mar"in of error is appro'imately 4$ ($