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stem from the increased access of their industries—those that are less competi-
producers to larger, international mar- tive and adaptable—will be forced out of
kets. For a national economy that access business. Meanwhile, reliance on foreign
means an opportunity to benefit from suppliers may be considered unaccept-
the international division of labor, on able when it comes to industries with a
the one hand, and the need to face significant role in national security. For
stronger competition in world markets, example, many governments are deter- Should all
on the other. Domestic producers pro- mined to ensure the so-called food secu- countries be
duce more efficiently due to their inter- rity of their countries, in case food
national specialization and the pressure imports are cut off during a war.
equally open to
that comes from foreign competition, foreign trade?
and consumers enjoy a wider variety of In addition, governments of developing
domestic and imported goods at lower countries often argue that recently estab-
prices. lished industries require temporary pro-
tection until they become more
In addition, an actively trading country competitive and less vulnerable to for-
benefits from the new technologies that eign competition. Thus governments
“spill over” to it from its trading part- often prohibit or reduce selected imports
ners, such as through the knowledge by introducing quotas, or make imports
embedded in imported production more expensive and less competitive by
equipment. These technological imposing tariffs. Such protectionist poli-
spillovers are particularly important for cies can be economically dangerous
developing countries because they give because they allow domestic producers
them a chance to catch up more quickly to continue producing less efficiently
with the developed countries in terms and eventually lead to economic stagna-
of productivity. Former centrally tion. Wherever possible, increasing the
planned economies, which missed out economic efficiency and international
on many of the benefits of global trade competitiveness of key industries should
because of their politically imposed iso- be considered as an alternative to protec-
lation from market economies, today tionist policies.
aspire to tap into these benefits by rein-
tegrating with the global trading system. A country that attempts to produce
almost everything it needs domestically
But active participation in international deprives itself of the enormous economic
trade also entails risks, particularly those benefits of international specialization.
associated with the strong competition But narrow international specialization,
in international markets. For example, a which makes a country dependent on
country runs the risk that some of its exports of one or a few goods, can also be
67
BEYOND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Figure 12.1 Average annual growth rates of GNP and exports of goods and
services, 1965–96
Percent
10
8.8%
8 7.4%
6.2%
5.8% 5.9%
6
5.2%
4.6%
4
3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7%
2.1%
2
0
World High-income East Asia Latin America South Asia Sub-Saharan
countries and the and the Africa
Pacific Caribbean
GNP Exports
68
12 GLOBALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Note: The ratio of trade to purchasing power parity–adjusted GDP is considered the best available tool for comparing integration with the world economy across countries. But
the use of this tool is complicated by the different shares of the service sector in the economies of different countries. For example, developed countries appear to be less
integrated because a larger share of their output consists of services, a large portion of which are by their nature nontradable.
cent in developing countries (Map 12.1 the same time, developing countries
and Data Table 3). have increased trade among themselves.
Still, developed countries remain their
main trading partners, the best markets
Geography and Composition of for their exports, and the main source of
Global Trade their imports.
Over the past 10 years patterns of inter- Most developing countries’ terms of
national trade have been changing in trade deteriorated in the 1980s and
favor of trade between developed and 1990s because prices of primary
developing countries. Developed coun- goods—which used to make up the
tries still trade mostly among themselves, largest share of developing country
but the share of their exports going to exports—have fallen relative to prices of
developing countries grew from 20 per- manufactured goods. For example,
cent in 1985 to 22 percent in 1995. At between 1980 and 1995 real prices of
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BEYOND ECONOMIC GROWTH
oil dropped almost fourfold, prices of tries (Figure 12.2). The most dynamic
cocoa almost threefold, and prices of categories of their manufactured exports
coffee about twofold. There is still are labor-intensive, low-knowledge
debate about whether this relative products (clothes, carpets, some manu-
decline in commodity prices is perma- ally assembled products) that allow
nent or transitory, but developing coun- these countries to create more jobs and
How is the role of tries that depend on these exports have make better use of their abundant labor
already suffered heavy economic losses resources.
developing
that have slowed their economic growth
countries in global and development. By contrast, developing countries’
trade changing? imports from developed countries are
In response to these changes in their mostly capital- and knowledge-intensive
terms of trade, many developing coun- manufactured goods—primarily
tries are increasing the share of manu- machinery and transport equipment—in
factured goods in their exports, which developed countries retain their
including exports to developed coun- comparative advantage.1
Figure 12.2 Developing countries’ trade with OECD countries, 1985 and 1996
1985 1996
16% 12%
22%
5% 26%
57%
57%
3%
2%
1985 1996
4%
5% 2%
11% 8%
3% 3%
1%
80% 83%
Food Ores and fuel Agricultural raw materials Miscellaneous Manufactured goods
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12 GLOBALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE
countries. Some former Soviet Union sure of low-cost, labor-intensive imports from
countries are narrowly specialized in the developing countries pushes down the wages of
production and export of a small number unskilled workers in developed countries (thus
of commodities, such as cotton in increasing the wage gap between skilled and
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and food unskilled workers, as in the United Kingdom
products in Moldova. For others, such as and United States) and pushes up unemploy-
Russia and Belarus, the biggest problems ment, especially among low-skill workers (as in
are the quality and international compet- Western Europe). But empirical studies suggest
itiveness of their manufactured goods. that although trade with developing countries
affects the structure of industry and demand for
industrial labor in developed countries, the main
Note reasons for the wage and unemployment prob-
lems are internal and stem from labor-saving
1. A popular debate in many developed coun- technological progress and postindustrial eco-
tries asks whether the growing competitive pres- nomic restructuring (see Chapters 7 and 9).
72