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Statistika Ekonomi II
Trend Cyclical
Time-Series
Seasonal Random
Time
Komponen Cyclical
Sales
Time
Komponen Seasonal
Summer
Winter
Spring Fall
Time (Monthly or Quarterly)
Komponen Random or Irregular
kecelakaan
25
20
15
Sales
10
0
0 5 10 15 20
© 2003
25
Prentice-Hall,
30
Inc. 35
Chap 12-9
Time
E.g. Quarterly Retail Sales with
Seasonal Components Removed
Quarterly without Seasonal Com ponents
25
20
15
Sales
Y(t)
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 © 2003 Prentice-Hall,
30 Inc.
35
Chap 12-10
Tim e
Perkalian Model Time-Series
First average: Y1 Y2 Y3
MA(3)
3
Second average: Y2 Y3 Y4
MA(3)
3
94 95 96 97 98 99