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The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions:What Post-2008 U.S., Europe and ChinaCan Learn from Japan 1990-2005
Richard C. KooChief EconomistNomura Research InstituteTokyoOctober 2008
 
1
Exhibit 1. US Housing Price Futures Moving Closerto the Japanese Experience
406080100120140160180200220240260929394959697989900010203040506070809101112US: 10 Cities Composite Home Price Index
(US: Jan. 2000=100, Japan: Dec. 1985=100)Sources: Bloomberg, Real Estate Economic Institute, Japan, S&P "S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices", as of Oct. 23, 2008.Composite Index Futures(as of Oct. 23, 2008)
Japan: Tokyo Area Condo Price(per m
2
, 5 months moving average)77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97Japan: Osaka Area Condo Price(per m
2
, 5 months moving average)Futures
Composite Index Futures(as of Sep. 19, 2007)
USJapan
 
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Exhibit 2. Japanese Banking Crisis and US Subprime CrisisResulting in Similar Bank Losses
02004006008001000120014001600U.S. savings and loan crisis(1986-1995)Japan banking crisis (1990-1999)Asia banking crisis (1998-1999)U.S. subprime crisis (2007-present)0510152025303540Other financials (left scale)Bank losses (left scale)Percent of GDP (right scale)(Losses in billions of U.S. dollars)
Source: IMF,
Global Financial Stability Report (October 2008)
, p.16
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