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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
30 September 2009
Issue No. 186
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
ORG (ORGKZC) Trading Buy
– Breakout
ASX (ASXKZI) MINI Trading Buy
 – Volume and EPS growth
AGK (AGKKZE) MINI Investment Buy
– Value in contract wins
Round Up Corner New Trading Warrants
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200+75.7 4753.1 +1.6%
+19 to +91 $4.3 bn(L)
SPI - yesterday+69.0 4757.0 +1.5%
+44 to +91 23,513(L)
Dow Jones-47.29742.2-0.5% 
-50 to +45 Low
S&P 500-2.41060.6-0.2% 
-5 to +7 Low
Nasdaq-6.72124.0-0.3% 
-14 to +11 Low
FTSE-6.05159.7-0.1% 
-29 to +18 Avg
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot-0.266.6-0.3% -8.4%  Gold Spot+1.3 992.4 +0.1%
+3.9% 
Nickel (LME)+17.9 773.6 +2.4%-10.6%  Aluminium (LME)+0.9 82.5 +1.1%-2.6%  Copper (LME)-1.5270.4-0.6% 
-7.8%  
Zinc (LME)+0.2 84.2 +0.3% +0.0%Silver-0.016.2-0.1%+9.7% Sugar+0.8 23.5 +3.6%
-0.3%  
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)-0.01 0.00
+14.0 c
16.05
+24.4 c
RIO (UK)-16.00 -0.01
+26.7 c
48.94
-1072.5 c 
BLT (BHP UK)-10.00 -0.01
+17.3 c
31.67
-631.9 c 
BXB (UK)7.50 0.02
+4.4 c
8.10
-21.9 c 
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)0.20 0.00
+65.9 c
37.84
-15.1 c 
AWC (US)-0.05 -0.01
+6.4 c
1.83
-1.5 c 
TLS (US)0.05 0.00
+14.3 c
3.28
+1.5 c
ANZ (US)0.03 0.00
+21.6 c
24.80
+7.5 c
WBC (US)-0.61 -0.01
+114.5 c
26.30
-13.2 c 
NAB (US)-0.02 0.00
+27.1 c
31.12
-9.9 c 
LGL (US)0.32 0.01
+25.0 c
2.87
+4.6 c
RMD (US)0.39 0.01
+45.0 c
5.17
-0.3 c 
JHX (US)1.19 0.04
+34.1 c
7.83
-5.8 c 
PDN (CAN)-0.08 -0.02
+4.2 c
4.41
-4.6 c 
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded up 70pts or 1.49% to 4758. Open at 4735 with a low of 4732 and a high of 4779. Volume 26,153. Overnight the SPItraded down 12pts to 4745.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUS
Stevens testifies on the economic stimulus
USTuesdayAUS
RBA Richards speaks on housing
US
S&P/CS composite 20
WednesdayAUS
RBA private sector credit, nominal retail trade, building approvals
US
Consumer confidence, ADP employment report, GDP, Chicago PMI
ThursdayAUS
AIG/PWC manufacturing PMI
US
Personal income, personal spending, core PCE deflator
FridayAUS
TDMI inflmation gauge
US
ISM, construction spending, pending home sales, non-farm payrolls,unemployment rate, average hously earnings
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
 
 
Trading Buy:
Origin Energy (ORGKZC) – Breakout
On Friday ORG made a strong move up and broke through resistance at $15.50 and has managed to continue the moveto $16 this week. Given the stock’s recent underperformace, look for the stock to trade up to the next resistance level at$17.00 - $17.50. RBS Research target price is $17.25 with a BUY recommendation, on the blief that the stock presentscompelling value at current levels. Play thorugh ORGKZC.
Source: IRESS 
The chart above shows ORG’s $15.50 breakout on Friday from its ascending triangle pattern. Look for the stock to nowtrade up to $17.00 - $17.50 range where previous resistance was in April/May.With ORG’s result out of the way, there appear to be no negative catalysts on the horizon for ORG. Expect the stock togain momentum over the coming 6 – 12 months as the LNG project moves forward and the stock continues to reflect thevalue in that project. ORG has guided for 15% NPAT growth in FY10 which is very achievable and the company is sittingon ~A$3.75bln cash. RBS Research price target $17.25 with BUY recommendation
RBS MINIs over ORG
Security ExPrc Stop Loss CP ConvFac Delta Description
ORGKZC 1054.9 Long 1 1 MINI LongORGKZP 1968.8 Short 1 1 MINI Short
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