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Maley Hazaras Kabul Opinion February 2014

Maley Hazaras Kabul Opinion February 2014



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Published by Brynn O'Brien
Expert opinion by Prof William Maley on "the safety of return to Kabul for members of the Hazara minority in Afghanistan."
Expert opinion by Prof William Maley on "the safety of return to Kabul for members of the Hazara minority in Afghanistan."

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Published by: Brynn O'Brien on Feb 03, 2014
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On Return to Kabul of Members of the Hazara Minority in Afghanistan3 February 2014
Professor William Maley1. I have been asked to provide an expert opinion on the safety of return to Kabul for members of the Hazara minority in Afhanistan. I am Professor and !ire"tor of the Asia#Pa"ifi" $ollee of !iploma"y at the Australian %ational &niversity. I have published extensively on Afhan politi"s for over t'o de"ades( and am author of
 Rescuing Afghanistan
 )*ondon+ Hurst , $o.( -/0 and
The Afghanistan Wars
)*ondon and %e' ork+ Palrave Ma"millan( --( -20. I have also 'ritten a study of
The Foreign Policy of the Taliban
 )%e' ork+ $oun"il on 3orein 4elations( -05 "o#authored
 Regime Change in Afghanistan: Foreign Intervention and the  Politics of Legitimacy
 )6oulder+ Westvie' Press( 12210 and
 Political Order in PostCommunist Afghanistan
 )6oulder+ *ynne 4ienner( 122-05 edited
 Fundamentalism  Reborn! Afghanistan and the Taliban
 )%e' ork+ %e' ork &niversity Press( 1227( -105 and "o#edited
The "oviet Withdra#al from Afghanistan
 )$ambride+ $ambride &niversity Press( 12720. I authored the entry on Hazaras in 8ohn *. 9sposito )ed.0(
 The O$ford %ncyclo&edia of the Islamic World
 )%e' ork+ :xford &niversity Press( -20 ;ol.II( pp.<7=#<7/. I also 'rote the annual overvie' of events in Afhanistan in -11 for the >ournal
 Asian "urvey
+ see William Maley( ?Afhanistan in -11+ Positionin for an &n"ertain 3uture@(
 Asian "urvey
( vol.=-( no.1( 8anuary#3ebruary -1-( pp.77#22. I visited Kabul most re"ently in :"tober -1<( and in April -1< "arried out intervie's in 'estern distri"ts of the "ity )notably in the !asht#e 6ar"hi distri"t( s"ene of violent atta"ks on 1< Auust -10 in 'hi"h members of the Hazara ethni" roup are "on"entrated.-. 3irst( it is essential to appre"iate that the situation in Afhanistan is extremely fluid( and assessments of the situation made even a year ao do not ne"essarily provide an a""urate pi"ture of the situation at the beinnin of -1. Bhe failure of the Karzai administration to sin a se"urity areement 'ith the &nited Ctates has led to a reat deal of apprehension about the future of the "ountry( and there is a rave risk that Afhanistan 'ill fall vi"tim to 'hat so"ial s"ientists "all a ?"as"ade@( 'here even people 'ho despise the Baliban de"ide to shift support to them be"ause they think they are oin to "ome out on top any'ay. Bhis is a 'ell#re"onised phenomenon )see $ass 4. Cunstein(
 La#s of Fear: 'eyond the Precautionary Princi&le
)$ambride+ $ambride &niversity Press( -=0 pp.2#270 and it 'ould likely "reate espe"ially rave risks for people of Hazara ethni"ity sin"e taretin Hazaras "ould be a devi"e by 'hi"h other roups miht seek to establish their "redentials in the eyes of the Baliban.<. In my vie'( it is a serious mistake to "on"lude that Kabul is safe for Hazaras. Bhis 'as trai"ally demonstrated on / !e"ember -11( 'hen a sui"ide bomber atta"ked Chiite Afhans( most of them Hazaras( at a pla"e of "ommemoration in do'nto'n Kabul durin the
 festival that marks the anniversary of the 6attle of Karbala in /7 A!. Almost simultaneously( a bomb in Mazar#e Charif also killed Afhan Chia. Bhe Kabul bomb killed at least == people( and the Mazar bomb four more )see Hashmat 6aktash and Alex 4odriues( ?B'o Afhanistan bombins aimed at Chiites kill at least =2 people@(
 Los Angeles Times
( D !e"ember -110. Bhe Afhan
photorapher Massoud Hossaini 'as a'arded the -1- Pulitzer Prize for his photoraph of the aftermath of the Kabul atro"ity+ see E'''.pulitzer.orF'orksF-1-#6reakin#%e's#PhotoraphyG. 4esponsibility 'as "laimed by the Pakistani Cunni extremist roup
 Lash(are )hangvi
( 'hi"h has a lon history of se"tarian violen"e aainst Chia )see Muhammad asim aman( ?Ce"tarianism in Pakistan+ Bhe 4adi"alization of Chi@i and Cunni Identities@(
 *odern  Asian "tudies+
vol.<-( no.<( 1227( pp./72#D1/0. Bhe key point to note is that no one 'ith any kno'lede of Afhanistan "ould seriously doubt that Hazara Chia 'ere spe"ifi"ally tareted on this o""asion. In the liht of the !e"ember -11 bombin(
any ,country information- suggesting that .a/ara "hia are not at ris( of &ersecution for reasons recognised by the 0120 Convention is outdated and irrelevant 
. 3urthermore( to depi"t this atta"k as an isolated in"ident misses the underlyin history of antaonism to'ards Hazaras that is pertinent to assessin 'hat the future holds. It is the kind of reasonin that 'ould have defined the 12<7
 experien"e as an isolated in"ident.
Safety of return to Kabul
. Bhe issue of an internal fliht or relo"ation alternative )I3AFI4A0 'as addressed by &%H$4 in the
45.CR %ligibility 6uidelines for assessing the International  Protection 5eeds of Asylumsee(ers from Afghanistan
)Jeneva+ H$4F9JFA3JF1<F1( / Auust -1<0. Bhese stated )at p.D0+ Bo assess the reasonableness of a proposed I3AFI4A outside areas "ontrolled by AJ9s or affe"ted by a"tive "onfli"t( parti"ular attention must be iven to+ )i0 the availability of traditional support me"hanisms( provided by members of the appli"ant@s extended family or members of his or her ethni" roup5 )ii0 a""ess to shelter in the proposed area of relo"ation5 )iii0 the availability of basi" infrastru"ture and a""ess to essential servi"es in the proposed area of relo"ation( su"h as sanitation( health "are and edu"ation5 )iv0 the presen"e of livelihoods opportunities( in"ludina""ess to land for Afhans oriinatin from rural areas5 and )v0 the s"ale of internal displa"ement in the proposed area of relo"ation. Bhe -1<
45.CR %ligibility
 offered the follo'in "omments )at p.D=0 on relo"ation to urban areas+Where the proposed area of relo"ation is an urban area 'here the appli"ant has no a""ess to pre# identified a""ommodation and livelihood options( and 'here he or she "annot reasonably be expe"ted to be able to fall ba"k on meaninful support net'orks( the appli"ant 'ould likely find him# or herself in a situation "omparable to that of other urban I!Ps. Bo assess the reasonableness of su"h an out"ome( ad>udi"ators need to take into a""ount the s"ale of internal displa"ement in the area of prospe"tive relo"ation( and the livin "onditions of I!Ps in that lo"ation. 4elevant "onsiderations in this reard in"lude the fa"t that I!Ps are "onsidered to be amonthe most vulnerable roups in Afhanistan( many of 'hom are beyond the rea"h of humanitarian oranizations5 as 'ell as available information to the effe"t that urban I!Ps are more vulnerable than the non#displa"ed urban poor( as they are parti"ularly affe"ted by unemployment5 limited a""ess to adeuate housin5 limited a""ess

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