RBS - Round Up

This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.

The Round Up

1 October 2009

Issue No. 187

The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.

In today’s issue

Global Market Action

Scoreboard, commentary

Aussie Market Action

SPI Comment, Events & Dividends

ORG (ORGKZC) Trading Buy

– Breakout

ASX (ASXKZI) MINI Trading Buy

– Volume and EPS growth

AGK (AGKKZE) MINI Investment Buy

– Value in contract wins

Round Up Corner Cashed up companies ready to invest

Equities

Move Last % Move Range Volume

ASX 200-9.54743.6-0.2%

-23 to +15 $5.1 bn(A)

SPI - yesterday-10.04747.0-0.2%

-18 to +20 26,561(A)

Dow Jones-29.99712.3-0.3%

-134 to +35 Low

S&P 500-3.51057.1-0.3%

-14 to +3 Avg

Nasdaq-1.62122.4-0.1%

-32 to +14 Avg

FTSE-25.85133.9-0.5%

-67 to +30 High

Commodities

Move Last % Today % Past Month

Oil-WTI spot+3.6 70.3 +5.4% +0.6%Gold Spot+15.4 1007.8 +1.6%

+5.9%

Nickel (LME)+34.7 808.3 +4.5%-6.6% Aluminium (LME)+1.7 84.2 +2.1%-0.6% Copper (LME)+8.4 278.8 +3.1%

-4.9%

Zinc (LME)+4.0 88.1 +4.7% +4.7%Silver+0.5 16.6 +3.0% +11.7%Sugar+0.7 24.1 +2.8%

-1.1%

Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)

Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus

NWS (US)0.01 0.00

+14.0 c

15.85

-23.6 c

RIO (UK)-2.00 0.00

+26.7 c

48.33

-1091.3 c

BLT (BHP UK)-20.00 -0.01

+17.1 c

30.93

-679.8 c

BXB (UK)-9.25 -0.02

+4.3 c

7.84

-24.3 c

American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)

Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus

BHP (US)0.11 0.00

+66.0 c

37.40

-32.6 c

AWC (US)-0.04 -0.01

+6.4 c

1.80

-3.1 c

TLS (US)0.11 0.01

+14.4 c

3.26

-1.3 c

ANZ (US)-0.17 -0.01

+21.4 c

24.29

-10.4 c

WBC (US)0.94 0.01

+115.4 c

26.17

-8.5 c

NAB (US)-0.09 0.00

+27.0 c

30.61

-15.0 c

LGL (US)0.09 0.00

+25.1 c

2.84

+3.9 c

RMD (US)0.21 0.00

+45.2 c

5.12

-6.8 c

JHX (US)-0.08 0.00

+34.0 c

7.71

-14.9 c

PDN (CAN)0.10 0.02

+4.3 c

4.52

+2.4 c

Overnight Commentary

United States Commentary

An initial vote of no confidence in the nights eco data, the Dow shedding 134pts and hitting session lows in the first 30minutes of trade.Upon closer inspection of the numbers, some buying returned albeit in the consumer staple space, financials/cyclicals were the biggestdrag. The S&P down 0.3% and the Nasdaq the relative outperformer down 0.1%.

Eco

- ADP Employment Change for Sept -254K vs -200K, Headline 2Q GDP -0.7% vs -1.2% expected and the revised Q1 number of -1.0%, GDP Price Index flat and in line, Personal Consumption for 2Q -0.9% vs -1.0% expected and Chicago PMI 46.1 vs 52.0expected, the dip back below 50 signalling contraction.

Cyclicals

- Uninspiring economic numbers prompted ongoing selling amongst the Dow's heavyweight cyclicals. Despite favourablemoves from the metals, Alcoa slipped 1.4%, GE down 1.7%, Du Pont and Boeing down 1.2% and 0.9% respectively.

Financials

- Further heat coming out of the sector overnight, JP's the Dow's worst off 2.4%, Regions shed 3.4%(S&P100's worst), BoAdown 1.4% and BoNY finished 1.2% lower.

Techs

- Jabil Circuits the standout on the Nasdaq, up over 9% after mgmt released forecast topping predictions for Q1 earnings, nowexpecting 24cps for the period, well ahead of consensus sitting at 16cps.

Retail

- A mixed bag overnight, Nike up nearly 8% after beating the street with Q1 numbers post yesterdays close. On the flipside,Saks Inc gave back nearly 5% after flagging plans for a raising.

United Kingdom & Europe Commentary

The FTSE was off 0.5% or 26pts as banks, miners and energy stocks all lower after weak Chicago PMI data. Profit taking hit the FTSEafter the best quarter in its 25 year history. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 0.5%, the CAC was also off 0.5% and the DAX sank 0.7%.

UK Banks

- A mixed night for the banks as some rose on the back of increasing confidence after recent capital raisings acrossEuropean banks with RBS, Barclays and Standard Chartered up between 0.2% and 1.8% but HSBC and Lloyds were off 1.4% and1.1% respectively.

Euro Banks

- The IMF said that European banks were only 40% through an estimated $1,600bn of writedowns and many wouldbenefit from additional cash calls. Many banks were positive early but drifted lower. BNP was off 3%, SocGen fell 2.5%, UniCreditdropped 1.8%, Deutsche Bank sank 2.35% and Commerzbank ended 1.4% lower.

Insurers

- The sector enjoyed another good night with continued takeover speculation. L&G climbed another 6.1% with RSAInsurance, Aviva, Standard Life and Prudential up between 0.5% and 3.9%.

Retail

- Marks & Spencer shed 3.4% after a 2Q trading update prompted profit-taking with clothing retailer Next off 3.1%. Sainsbury fell0.5% but Tesco managed a gain of 0.8%. Cross-town rivals Adidas and Puma added 0.7% and 2.2% respectively after brokerupgrades.

Commodiites Commentary

Miners

- Profit taking moved into the sector after it was up 36.5% for the quarter. BHP fell 1.2%, Rio was off 0.1%, Anglo dropped 2.5%but Lonmin climbed 1.6% and Xstrata added 0.2%. Xstrata, which owns 26% of Lonmin is free to make another bid from Thursday.

Energy

- Despite a stronger crude price on stringer US inventory data oil stocks focussed on weaker US consumer confidence data.BP, Shell, BG Group and Tullow Oil were off between 0.7% and 2.3%. In Europe Total fell 0.4%, Statoil dropped 0.7% and Repsol sank1.5%.

SPI Commentary

The SPI traded down 10pts or 0.21% to 4747. Open at 4745 with a high of 4777 and a low of 4739. Volume 26,511. The SPI tradeddown 8pts to 4739 in overnight trade

SPI Intraday SPI Daily

*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS

Upcoming Economic Events for the Week

MondayAUS

Stevens testifies on the economic stimulus

USTuesdayAUS

RBA Richards speaks on housing

US

S&P/CS composite 20

WednesdayAUS

RBA private sector credit, nominal retail trade, building approvals

US