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World Economic outlook
obe 2009
Sustaining the Recovery
International Monetary Fund
World Economic and Financial Surveys
 
©2009 International Monetary Fund Production: IMF Multimedia Services DivisionCover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge SalazarComposition: Julio Prego
Cataloging-in-Publication Data World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
 World economic outlook : a survey by the sta o the International Monetary Fund. — Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980– v. ; 28 cm. — (1981–1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund,0251-6365). — (1986– : World economic and inancial surveys, 0256-6877)Semiannual.Has occasional updates, 1984–1. Economic history, 1971–1990 — Periodicals. 2. Economic history, 1990–— Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper(International Monetary Fund). III. Series: World economic and inancialsurveys.HC10.W7979 84-640155 338.5’443’09048—dc19 AACR2 MARC-SISBN 978-1-58906-807-0 Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publication Services700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A.Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@im.org www.imbookstore.org
 
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Eecie Smmar iCaper 1. Glbal Prspecs ad Plicies 1
The Global Recession Is Ending 1Deleveraging and Slow Job Growth Ahead 3Improving, but Still Dicult, Financial Conditions 3Sluggish Real Sector Dynamics 6Continued, but Diminishing, Support rom Policy 18 A Subdued Recovery and Vulnerability to Mild Defation 29Beyond 2010: How Will the Global Economy Rebalance? 31Risks to a Sustained Recovery 34Policy Challenges: Reconciling Short- and Medium-Term Objectives 42 Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects 50Reerences 63
Caper 2. Cr ad Regial Perspecies 67
The U.S. Economy Is Stabilizing as the Crisis Subsides 67 Asia: From Rebound to Recovery? 71Europe: A Sluggish Recovery Lies Ahead 73Commonwealth o Independent States: A Dicult Recovery or Some and DamageContainment or Others 80Other Advanced Economies: On the Path to Recovery 82Latin America and the Caribbean: Policy Frameworks Have Promoted Resilience 83Middle East: Strengthening Growth Prospects 86 Arica: Regaining Momentum 89
Caper 3. Lesss r Mear Plic rm Asse Price Flcais 93
 Asset Price Busts in the Modern Era 94Macroeconomic Patterns ahead o the Current Crisis 102The Role o Monetary Policy 104Should Policymakers React to Asset Market Fluctuations? 107Policy Conclusions 115 Appendix 3.1 Econometric Methods 117
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