2 Center for American Progress | Testimony on “U.S. Crude Oil Exports: Opportunities and Challenges”
Tis experience suggess ha lifing he naionwide crude oil expor ban could similarly raise gasoline prices. Barclays Plc. predics ha lifing he expor ban could increase oal spending on moor vehicle uel by $10 billion per year.
Sandy Fielden, direcor o energy analyics a RBN Energy, old Bloomberg ha i here are more oil expors, “Te mos obvious hing ha’s going o happen is ha crude prices will go up and so will gasoline.”
I he ban is lifed, oil companies could sell some o heir oil a he higher world marke price, which EIA projecs will average $9 per barrel more in 2014 or some domesic oil.
EIA predics ha in 2014 he Unied Saes will consume 5 million barrels per day, or mbd, o oil and liquids more han we produce. Tis gap beween demand and supply will coninue a leas hrough 2040, ulimaely growing by 13 percen. Domesic oil sold overseas mus be replaced by more expensive impored oil. Tis higher price could be reﬂeced in higher gasoline prices.Te Unied Saes impors more oil rom he Organizaion o Peroleum Exporing Counries, or OPEC, han rom any oher single source. OPEC oil is very vulnerable o supply disrup-ions.
EIA ound ha:
Disruptions may occur fequently … or a variety o reasons, including conﬂicts [and] natural disas-ters. … Total outages among the Organization o the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) … producers recently rose to historically high levels.
A commission o reired senior U.S. miliary oﬃcers recenly noed ha, “No mater how close he counry comes o oil sel-suﬃciency, volailiy in he global oil marke will remain a serious concern.”
Oil produced in he Unied Saes is signiﬁcanly less vulnerable o supply disrupions and hereore provides more energy securiy.Tere is litle beneﬁ o Americans rom lifing he ban, paricularly since oil companies are already making huge proﬁs even wih i. Te ﬁve larges oil companiesBP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon
WTI crude oil
Crude oil futures prices
In dollars per barrel
Source: Energy Information Administration, "Petroleum & Other Liquids: Spot Prices," available at http:// www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm (last accessed January 2014).
Jan. 2011Jan. 2012Jan. 2013Jan. 2014
Brent crude oil
U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels supply, consumption, and net imports
In millions of barrels per day
Source: Energy Information Administration, AEO2014 Early Release Overview (U.S. Department of Energy, 2014), available at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_production.cfm?src=Petroleum-b2.
ConsumptionDomestic supplyNet imports25201510