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Fact: These three are good!

Four weeks into the college season, it’s clear who the potential party crashers are

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Houston, Boise State and TCU. Now, all three have plenty of football ahead of them, but after marquee wins by each program, it’stime to dream, right? Right?!? The NFL weekend has some intriguing,perhaps unexpectedly so, matchups as well. Enjoy the newsletter and asChris Level always says...Keep hope alive!

Baltimore (3-0) vs. New England (2-1)

Ravens - 21 vs. Patriots - 20

October 4, 2009 - CBS 12 PM CST

t2009 Ranking156.7 ypg

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5thRun Offense108.0 ypg

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17th 273.7 ypg

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5thPass Offense287.0 ypg

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3rd34.3 ppg

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2ndScoring Offense20.0 ppg

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17th 51.0 ypg

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1stRun Defense88.3 ypg

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10th 231.7 ypg

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17thPass Defense174.0 ypg

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6th 17.7 ppg

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11thScoring Defense16.7 ppg

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7th +3

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6thTO Margin+1

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12th

When the Ravens have the ball...

The offensive onslaught from the Ravens continued last weekend with theRavens amassing 479 total yards and 28 first downs against the hapless Browns last weekend thanks to a balancedattack that included 142 rushing yards and 337 passing yards. While the Ravens have gone up against patsies in KCand Cleveland, it is obvious from watching them that they have taken a big step forward offensively. Joe Flacco hasbeen outstanding with a QB Rating of 100 while averaging 280 passing per game. The Ravens know they can run theball with some success against the Pats, but don't assume they will getultra

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conservative here because they aren't afraid to let Flacco do histhing anymore.

When the Patriots have the ball...

The Patriots have figured out what I have been preaching since the beginning of the year

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they needto re

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establish the running game and forget the 2007 version of TomBrady. The Patriots offense has tried to carry on like it is business asusual, but Brady hasn't looked sharp and is averaging just 6.13 yards perattempt with a QB Rating of just 79.9. With Wes Welker out, teamshave done a nice job of taking Moss away and defenses don't appear tobe as afraid to blitz the Patriots as they were in the past. The Patriots got back to their roots and re

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established their running game by playing much of the game with Brady under center and in 2

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TE sets.

The big question is

can they run the ball at the Ravens?

Conclusion:

I hate to say it, but the Patriots almost have to consider spreading the field out against the Ravenseven though that strategy hasn't been all that successful this year. If Welker returns, he could give the Patriots offensea big boost, but

the Ravens are simply the more well

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rounded team right now on both sides of the ball. Are theRavens ready to take that next step in this spot?

Vegas Line: Patriots -2 / 44.5

2009 ATS Record

3

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0

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0

2009 Over/Under

2

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1

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0

Last 5 Games

9/27 W, Cleveland 34

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3 9/20 W, @ San Diego 31

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26 9/13 W, Kansas City 38

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241/18 L, @ Pittsburgh 14

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231/10 W, @ Tennessee 13

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10

2009 ATS Record

1

-

2

-

0

2009 Over/Under

1

-

2

-

0

Last 5 Games

9/27 W, Atlanta 26

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10 9/20 L, @NY Jets 9

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16 9/14 W, Buffalo 25

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2412/28 W, @ Buffalo 13

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012/21 W, Arizona 47

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7

Last Meeting: New England - 27 vs. Baltimore - 24 (12/3/2007)

Fantasy Report

Willis McGahee

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Ravens RB

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Noneed to panic in this spot just becauseof the Patriots name value.

McGaheeis running great and still gets the goalline

totes.

Tom Brady

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Patriots QB

- If you have agood option as a second QB, you canlook in that direction, but I think Bradyshould be a decent play this week.

Oakland (1-2) vs. Houston (1-2)

Texans - 27 vs. Raiders - 21

October 4, 2009 - CBS 12 PM CST

t2009 Ranking103.3 ypg

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20thRun Offense70.7 ypg

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30th 119.7 ypg

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32ndPass Offense262.7 ypg

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9th 12.0 ppg

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30thScoring Offense21.7 ppg

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11th 155.0 ypg

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28thRun Defense204.7 ypg

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32nd211.0 ypg

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14thPass Defense231.7 ypg

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18th 19.0 ppg

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15thScoring Defense28.7 ppg

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29th

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1

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16thTO MarginEven

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15th

When the Raiders have the ball...

Jamarcus Russell has been just as bad as the Raiders hoped he wouldn't be this year and they have to be getting to the point where they are considering what their contingency plans are regarding the QB position for not just the future, but also for this year. The Raiders employ a zone game for much of theirrushing attack and McFadden is a good fit in that regard, but teams just don't respect the Raiders passing attackenough to keep both their safeties out of the box. I look for the Raiders to put McFadden in more "Wildcat"situations since the Texans haven't proven that they can maintain line assignments and

defensive responsibilities ondefense. The Texans might be less aggressive with their schemes this week in order to limit the big play potential of McFadden.

When the Texans have the ball...

The Raiders didn't chase Andre Johnson down all over the field with CB Nnamdi Asomugha last year and they kept him on just one side last week against the Broncos as well. It will be interesting to seeif they put him in Dre's pocket and let him stick him all overthe field. Even if Johnson is taken out of the game, Schaubhas proven that he is more than willing to take advantage of his many targets. The Raiders have an athletic trio of LBsand their defensive front is better with Richard Seymourthere, but they still are having a tough time stopping the run.

The Texans running game should continue to show improvement after Chris Myers, Kasey Studdard and MikeBrisiel had their best game of the year last week.

Conclusion:

I would love to sit her and tell you that the Texans are finally going to step it up on defense and put ona show, but I just can't do that until I see the defense actually show me something for 60 minutes. The Raiders havesome speed at the skill positions and chances are they will bust a big TD at some point, but the Texans have too muchon offense and the pass rush will finally show up in this spot.

Vegas Line: Texans -9.5 / 41.5

2009 ATS Record

1

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2

-

0

2009 Over/Under

1

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2

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