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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
2 October 2009
Issue No. 188
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
BSL (BSLKZI) MINI Trading Buy
– Poised for recovery
ASX (ASXKZI) MINI Trading Buy
 – Volume and EPS growth
AGK (AGKKZE) MINI Investment Buy
– Value in contract wins
Round Up Corner RBS Monthly Market Review – September 09
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200-42.54701.1-0.9% 
-47 to +14 $4.2 bn(L)
SPI - yesterday-27.04720.0
-44 to +21 28,798(A)
Dow Jones-203.09509.3-2.1% 
-212 to -1 High
S&P 500-27.21029.9-2.6% 
-28 to -2 High
Nasdaq-64.92057.5-3.1% 
-65 to -10 High
FTSE-86.15047.8-1.7% 
-90 to +30 Avg
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot-0.470.3-0.5%+3.5% Gold Spot-7.81000.0-0.8% 
+4.4% 
Nickel (LME)-21.4786.9-2.6% -5.1%  Aluminium (LME)-1.582.7-1.7%+0.8% Copper (LME)-8.2270.7-2.9% 
-3.5%  
Zinc (LME)-2.685.5-2.9%+3.2% Silver-0.316.4-1.7%+8.8% Sugar-0.724.1-2.6% 
-0.5%  
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)-0.70 -0.05
+13.3 c
15.27
-53.1 c 
RIO (UK)-92.50 -0.03
+25.8 c
47.23
-1167.2 c 
BLT (BHP UK)-65.00 -0.04
+16.4 c
30.12
-707.7 c 
BXB (UK)-5.00 -0.01
+4.3 c
7.84
-3.8 c 
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)-3.14 -0.05
+62.9 c
36.12
-108.4 c 
AWC (US)-0.28 -0.04
+6.1 c
1.74
-6.7 c 
TLS (US)-0.21 -0.01
+14.2 c
3.25
-2.6 c 
ANZ (US)-0.83 -0.04
+20.6 c
23.67
-43.3 c 
WBC (US)-4.59 -0.04
+110.9 c
25.47
-43.9 c 
NAB (US)-1.15 -0.04
+25.9 c
29.71
-66.0 c 
LGL (US)-0.61 -0.02
+24.4 c
2.81
-8.2 c 
RMD (US)-1.13 -0.03
+44.1 c
5.06
-7.7 c 
JHX (US)-1.37 -0.04
+32.7 c
7.50
-9.8 c 
PDN (CAN)-0.14 -0.03
+4.1 c
4.38
-13.0 c 
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
The recent run of economic disappointments continued overnight and whilst the Payroll number could snap the losing streak, last nightit was a trip back to Q1/Q2, the Dow off 200pts on heavy turnover. Elsewhere, the S&P had its worst single day in 3 months down 2.6%and the Nasdaq finished 3.1% lower.
Eco
- Personal Income for August +0.2% vs +0.1% expected, Personal Spending +1.3% vs +1.1% PCE Core in line +0.1%.InitialJobless Claims 551K vs 535K, Continuing Claims 6090K vs 6170K expected. ISM Manufacturing for Sep 52.6 vs 54.0, Prices Paid63.5 vs 66.0, Construction Spending +0.8% vs -0.1% expected, Pending Homes Sales +6.4% vs consensus at +1.0%, Total VehicleSales 9.2mln vs 9.5mln expected.
Cyclicals/Growth
- Together with the financials, growth names remain amongst the larger casualties from the recent run of pooreconomic form. Dupont down 4.8%, Boeing 3.8%, Caterpillar down 3.7% and Intel finished 3.4% lower, together accounting for c25%of the days losses.
Techs
- Microsoft down 4% and one of the bigger drags on the Dow. Aside from getting caught up in the cyclical sell off, the stock wasdealt an additional blow after one broker removed the stock from their "conviction buy" list.
FX/Bonds
- On the back of more uninspiring data, serving only to support the growing view stock prices have outpaced prospects foran economic recovery, investors looked to de-risk. Yields down 7, 12 and 9bps across the three maturities, the DXY up half a cent andthe Aussie slipping more than a cent vs the dollar.
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
The FTSE fell 1.7% or 86pts with banks weighing, as analysts said the market was overdue for a correction after a record quarter. TheFTSE Eurofirst 300 was off 1.6%, the DAX fell 2.1% and the CAC dropped 2%.
UK Banks
- The sector was amongst the biggest fallers after Britain's five biggest banks agreed to abide by internationally agreedcurbs on bonuses. Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, RBS and Standard Chartered fell between 1.8% and 4.5%.
Eco
- UK manufacturing data revealed a modest contraction last month after employers cut jobs for a 17th straight month and the paceof pick-up in new orders slowed, adding to negative sentiment on the index as economists had expected a rise.
Aerospace
- BAE Systems lost 4.4% as Britain's Serious Fraud Office said it intended to seek the Attorney General's consent toprosecute the firm for offences relating to overseas corruption.
 
 
Auto
- Fiat was one of the few winners. The Italian carmaker, jumped 7.8% on reports it would be launching the first all-new Chryslermodel by the end of 2011. The sector was lower elsewhere; Renault fell 0.6%, Peugeot dropped 2.2%, VW was 2.7% lower and BMWsank 1.6%. Michelin fell 4.9% after the CFO said the company had not yet seen signs of recovery.
Commodiites Commentary
Miners
- Weaker UK manufacturing combined with some catch up on the weaker Chicago PMI saw miners generally lower. Lonminsank 8.1% on fears of a capital raising with analysts saying it is too expensive for Xstrata which fell 5.5%. BHP dropped 3.8%, Rio wasoff 3.5%, Anglo fell 5.4% but Vedanta climbed 2.4% after 2 brokers upgraded.
Energy
- Crude slipped a little but a lack of news saw the energy plays move lower with the market. BP fell 2.2%, Shell was off 2.7%,BG Group dropped 1.6%, Tullow slipped 0.35% and Cairn ended 2.5% lower. In Europe Total fell 1.7%, Statoil dropped 1.6% andRepsol ended 2% lower.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 27pts or 0.57% to 4720. Open at 4731 with a high of 4768 and a low of 4703. Volume 30,271.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUS
Stevens testifies on the economic stimulus
USTuesdayAUS
RBA Richards speaks on housing
US
S&P/CS composite 20
WednesdayAUS
RBA private sector credit, nominal retail trade, building approvals
US
Consumer confidence, ADP employment report, GDP, Chicago PMI
ThursdayAUS
AIG/PWC manufacturing PMI
US
Personal income, personal spending, core PCE deflator
FridayAUS
TDMI inflmation gauge
US
ISM, construction spending, pending home sales, non-farm payrolls,unemployment rate, average hously earnings
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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