Utah Water Supply Outlook, February 2014

Utah Water Supply Outlook Report February, 2014
From Brown Duck Ridge (10,000 ft) looking across Lake Fork, January, 2014
Photo by Kent Sutcliffe, NRCS
Water Supply Outlook Reports

and Federal - State - Private Cooperative Snow Surveys
For more water supply and resource management information, contact: your local Natural Resources Conservation Service Office or: Snow Surveys 245 N Jimmy Doolittle Rd, SLC Utah, 84116. Phone (801)524-5213
Internet Address: http://www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
How forecasts are made

Most of the annual streamflow in the western United States originates as snowfall that has accumulated in the mountains during the winter and early spring. As the snowpack accumulates, hydrologists estimate the runoff that will occur when it melts. Measurements of snow water equivalent at selected manual snowcourses and automated SNOTEL sites, along with precipitation, antecedent streamflow, and indices of the El Nio / Southern Oscillation are used in statistical and simulation models to prepare runoff forecasts. Unless otherwise specified, all forecasts are for flows that would occur naturally without any upstream influences. Forecasts of any kind, of course, are not perfect. Streamflow forecast uncertainty arises from three primary sources: (1) uncertain knowledge of future weather conditions, (2) uncertainty in the forecasting procedure, and (3) errors in the data. The forecast, therefore, must be interpreted not as a single value but rather as a range of values with specific probabilities of occurrence. The middle of the range is expressed by the 50% exceedance probability forecast, for which there is a 50% chance that the actual flow will be above, and a 50% chance that the actual flow will be below, this value. To describe the expected range around this 50% value, four other forecasts are provided, two smaller values (90% and 70% exceedance probability) and two larger values (30%, and 10% exceedance probability). For example, there is a 90% chance that the actual flow will be more than the 90% exceedance probability forecast. The others can be interpreted similarly. The wider the spread among these values, the more uncertain the forecast. As the season progresses, forecasts become more accurate, primarily because a greater portion of the future weather conditions become known; this is reflected by a narrowing of the range around the 50% exceedance probability forecast. Users should take this uncertainty into consideration when making operational decisions by selecting forecasts corresponding to the level of risk they are willing to assume about the amount of water to be expected. If users anticipate receiving a lesser supply of water, or if they wish to increase their chances of having an adequate supply of water for their operations, they may want to base their decisions on the 90% or 70% exceedance probability forecasts, or something in between. On the other hand, if users are concerned about receiving too much water (for example, threat of flooding), they may want to base their decisions on the 30% or 10% exceedance probability forecasts, or something in between. Regardless of the forecast value users choose for operations, they should be prepared to deal with either more or less water. (Users should remember that even if the 90% exceedance probability forecast is used, there is still a 10% chance of receiving less than this amount.) By using the exceedance probability information, users can easily determine the chances of receiving more or less water.
TheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)prohibitsdiscriminationagainstitscustomers.IfyoubelieveyouexperienceddiscriminationwhenobtainingservicesfromUSDA,participatinginaUSDAprogram,or participatinginaprogramthatreceivesfinancialassistancefromUSDA,youmayfileacomplaintwithUSDA.InformationabouthowtofileadiscriminationcomplaintisavailablefromtheOfficeofthe AssistantSecretaryforCivilRights.USDAprohibitsdiscriminationinallitsprogramsandactivitiesonthebasisofrace,color,nationalorigin,age,disability,andwhereapplicable,sex(includinggender identityandexpression),maritalstatus,familialstatus,parentalstatus,religion,sexualorientation,politicalbeliefs,geneticinformation,reprisal,orbecauseallorpartofanindividualsincomeisderived fromanypublicassistanceprogram.(Notallprohibitedbasesapplytoallprograms.)Tofileacomplaintofdiscrimination,complete,sign,andmailaprogramdiscriminationcomplaintform, availableatanyUSDAofficelocationoronlineatwww.ascr.usda.gov,orwriteto: USDA OfficeoftheAssistantSecretaryforCivilRights 1400IndependenceAvenue,SW. Washington,DC202509410 Orcalltollfreeat(866)6329992(voice)toobtainadditionalinformation,theappropriateofficeortorequestdocuments.Individualswhoaredeaf,hardofhearing,orhavespeechdisabilitiesmaycontact USDAthroughtheFederalRelayserviceat(800)8778339or(800)8456136(inSpanish).USDAisanequalopportunityprovider,employer,andlender. Personswithdisabilitieswhorequirealternativemeansfor communicationofprograminformation(e.g., Braille,largeprint,audiotape,etc.)shouldcontactUSDA'sTARGETCenterat(202)7202600(voiceandTDD).
STATE OF UTAH GENERAL OUTLOOK

February 1, 2014 SUMMARY January wasnt much when it comes to snow accumulation. For northern Utah there were essentially 2 storms, one at the beginning, one at the end. In southern Utah there was only one storm at the end of the month and the one previous to that was in early December. Few storms equates to little snow. The Bear and the Weber are slightly higher than January but the rest of the state declined 6% to 37% compared to January 1. The biggest declines were in southeast Utah, the Upper Sevier and southwest Utah, down 25% to 37%. Central Utah, Provo and Uintah Basin declined 6% to 10% relative to January 1. If you want to get out of a hole, the first thing you have to do is quit diggin and it doesnt appear we have put the shovel down. Lower elevation southern sites have actually been melting snow. There are two months remaining in the snow accumulation season and any outcome is still possible but a full recovery to normal is not likely. Water managers should take appropriate actions in preparation for anticipated reduced stream flow. Soil moisture conditions are near normal for most of northern Utah and above normal in the south. Reservoir storage continues to incrementally improve as water managers are storing as much as possible, currently 48% of capacity compared to 57% last year. Surface Water Supply indexes are mostly below average across the state. Overall, the water supply outlook is below average. SNOWPACK February first snow packs as measured by the NRCS SNOTEL system range from 59% of median on the lower Sevier to 108% on the Escalante. Most areas are in the 60% to 80% of median range. PRECIPITATION Mountain precipitation during January was 68% of average which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) 90% of normal. SOIL MOISTURE Soil Moisture is close to what it was last month, characteristic of winter trends. Dry on the Weber, close to normal across the remainder of northern Utah and above average over southern Utah. RESERVOIRS Storage in 46 of Utahs key irrigation reservoirs is at 48% of capacity compared to 57% last year. STREAMFLOW Snowmelt stream flows are forecast to be below to near normal across the state this year. Most flows are forecast to be in the 60% to 80% range. SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX Surface Water Supply indexes range from 6% on the Provo to 87% on the North Slope of the Utinahs.
Previous Year % Capacity
Current % Capacity
Statewide Utah
2/1/2014
Snowpack in Utah is below average at 75% of normal, compared to 92% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 63%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 72% of average. Soil moisture is at 51% compared to 46% last year. Reservoir storage is at 48% of capacity, compared to 57% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 28% to 104% of average.
Snowpack
30 25 20 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 15 10 5 0
Soil Moisture
100%
80% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014
60%
40%
20%
0%
Calculated using soil moisture content at 2, 8, and 20-inch depths.
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
Statewide
80 Percent of Average
Southwestern Utah Upper Sevier
60
Lower Sevier Price Basin
40
Duchesne Basin Provo Basin
20
Weber & Ogden Bear River Basin
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Utah streamflow and reservoir forecast points
Percent normal
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149%
# *
5
Forecast points Cities Rivers Highways
# * # * # * # * # *
> 150% no % avail.
# *
# * # * # * # *
0 15 30 60 90 120 Miles
Utah SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal

Raft River
Feb 01, 2014
68
Logan !
81
Weber Ogden
Bear River
! !
Ogden
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Basin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Median

unavailable * <50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% >=150%
Great Salt Lake
76
^ ! ( _
Northeastern Uintahs
80
Salt Lake City
81
Duchesne River
81
TooeleVernon
81
69
! !
77
! !
Roosevelt
Provo
ProvoUtahJordan
Lower Sevier River
59
San Pitch
Price - San Rafael
71
67
70
! !
Moab
* Data unavailable at time of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year
73
Beaver River
15
74
Provisional Data Subject to Revision
89
Dirty Devil
77
Southwestern Utah
Upper Sevier River
67
St. George
! !
108
Escalante River
Southeastern Utah
10 20
40
60
80
Miles 100
The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/ Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/ Science contact: Jim.Marron@por.usda.gov 503 414 3047
Utah SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal Raft River
Feb 05, 2014
68
Logan !
75
Weber Ogden
Bear River
! !
Ogden
Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation Basin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Average

unavailable * <50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% >=150%
* Data unavailable at time of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year
Great Salt Lake
71
^ ! ( _
Northeaster Uintahs
80
Salt Lake City
75
Duchesne River
90
TooeleVernon
73
69
! !
76
! !
Roosevelt
Provo
Lower Sevier River
ProvoUtahJordan
83
San Pitch
Price - San Rafael
83
79
70
! !
Moab
81
Beaver River
15
Provisional Data Subject to Revision
75
87
Dirty Devil
75
Southwestern Utah
Upper Sevier River
57
St. George
! !
90
Escalante River
Southeastern Utah
10 20
40
60
80
Miles 100
The water year to date precipitation percent of normal represents the accumulated precipitation found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
Prepared by the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/gis/ Based on data from http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/ Science contact: Jim.Marron@por.usda.gov 503 414 3047
Current % Capacity
Bear River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Bear River Basin is below average at 81% of normal, compared to 84% last year. Precipitation in January was below average at 86%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 75% of average. Soil moisture is at 55% compared to 64% last year. Reservoir storage is at 49% of capacity, compared to 57% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 30% to 88% of average. The surface water supply index is 29% for the Bear River, 33% for the Woodruff Narrows, 39% for the Little Bear.
Snowpack
35 30 25 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 20 15 10 5 0
Soil Moisture
100%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
WOODRUFF CREEK
WOODRUFF NARROWS
60
PORCUPINE
40
HYRUM
20
BEAR LAKE
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Data Current as of: 2/5/2014 9:47:10 AM
Bear River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Bear River Bear R nr UT-WY State Line APR-JUL Bear R ab Resv nr Woodruff APR-JUL Big Ck nr Randolph APR-JUL Smiths Fk nr Border APR-JUL Bear R bl Stewart Dam Little Bear at Paradise APR-JUL Logan R nr Logan
2 2
Forecast Period
90% (KAF) 58 28 0.44 40 1.83 1.23 14.3 7.5
70% (KAF) 82 84 1.73 61 11 13.8 44 22
50% (KAF) 94 106 2.5 71 55 24 64 30
% Avg 84% 88% 66% 80% 30% 59% 58% 70%
30% (KAF) 115 161 3.5 90 110 34 84 42
10% (KAF) 139 217 4.8 111 192 49 114 56
30yr Avg (KAF) 112 121 3.8 89 183 41 111 43
APR-JUL
APR-JUL Blacksmith Fk nr Hyrum APR-JUL
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 BEAR LAKE HYRUM RESERVOIR PORCUPINE RESERVOIR WOODRUFF CREEK WOODRUFF NARROWS RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Upper Bear Middle Bear Lower Bear Logan Current (KAF) 655.3 9.7 5.4 1.0 14.4 685.7 5 # of Sites 3 7 3 7 Last Year (KAF) 761.4 9.7 6.2 2.0 7.7 787.1 5 % Median 89% 88% 63% 78% Average (KAF) 584.8 10.2 6.0 2.4 29.0 632.4 5 Last Year % Median 89% 87% 79% 81% Capacity (KAF) 1421.0 15.3 11.3 4.0 57.3 1508.9 5
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Bear Lake

KAF^
Surface Water Supply Index

April-July Forecast below Stewart Dam
KAF
Reservoir + Streamflow
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Years with similar SWSI
*EOM, end of month; # SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; ^KAF, thousand acre-feet.
Bear River
536
55
591
-1.72
29
28, 45, 29, 30
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Woodruff Narrows Reservoir

KAF^

April-July forecast Bear at Stateline
KAF
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Woodruff Narrows
14.4
94.0
108.4
-1.45
33
94, 76, 91, 00
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Hyrum Reservoir

KAF^

April-July forecast Little Bear at Paradise
KAF
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Little Bear
9.7
24.0
33.7
-0.91
39
12, 02, 94, 10
Bear basin
! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (
# *
# *! (

15

84
Tremonton5
Logan
# 5 * # * # * # *
# *
Percent normal

15
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
5 Ogden
5 Evanston

84

80
# *
V U
150
! (
SNOTEL sites Forecast points Rivers Highways
Cities
10
20
30
40 Miles
Raft River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Raft River Basin is much below average at 69% of normal, compared to 103% last year. Precipitation in January was below average at 85%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 65% of average. Soil moisture is at 27% compared to 47% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for Dunn Creek is 48% of average.
Snowpack
50 45 40 35 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Soil Moisture
120% 100% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Percent of Average
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Raft River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Raft River Dunn Ck nr Park Valley APR-JUL 0.03 0.4 1.4 48% 2.1 2.8 2.9 Forecast Period 90% (KAF) Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast 70% 50% 30% % Avg (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF)
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Raft # of Sites 1 % Median Last Year % Median 69% 103%
Raft basin
V U
16
V U
42
V U
30
! ( # *
5
V U
30
Park Valley
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
! ( # *
Cities
0 1.5 3
12 Miles
Current % Capacity
Weber & Ogden River Basins

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Weber & Ogden River Basins is below average at 76% of normal, compared to 83% last year. Precipitation in January was below average at 70%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 71% of average. Soil moisture is at 54% compared to 61% last year. Reservoir storage is at 37% of capacity, compared to 49% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 43% to 85% of average. The surface water supply index is 11% for the Ogden River, 28% for the Weber River.
Snowpack
40 35
Soil Moisture
100%
80% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014 30 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 25 20 15 10 20% 5 0 0%
60%
40%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
SMITH AND MOREHOUSE ROCKPORT ECHO
60
LOST CREEK EAST CANYON CAUSEY
40
20
PINEVIEW WILLARD BAY
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Weber Ogden Rivers Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL Weber R at Gateway
2
Weber Ogden Rivers Smith & Morehouse Resv Inflow
90% (KAF) 17.7 14.7 45 51 44 5.1 17.4 0.36 0.3 0.56 1.12 2.6 0.13
70% (KAF) 23 155 81 77 80 21 78 3.8 3.6 1.86 13.7 16.5 1.79
50% (KAF) 27 250 106 95 105 32 119 7.7 8.2 12 27 46 3.2
% Avg
30% (KAF) 30 345 131 113 130 43 160 11.6 12.8 15.5 41 76 4.5
10% (KAF) 36 485 168 139 166 59 220 17.4 19.5 25 61 119 6.5
30yr Avg (KAF) 33 315 126 117 123 41 179 12.1 15.2 28 56 86 5.8
82% 79% 84% 81% 85% 78% 66% 64% 54% 43% 48% 53% 55%
APR-JUL Weber R nr Coalville2 APR-JUL Weber R nr Oakley

2
APR-JUL Rockport Reservoir Inflow Chalk Ck at Coalville APR-JUL Echo Reservoir Inflow
2 2
APR-JUL
APR-JUL Lost Ck Reservoir Inflow APR-JUL East Canyon Ck nr Jeremy Ranch APR-JUL East Canyon Ck nr Morgan SF Ogden R nr Huntsville
2 2
APR-JUL APR-JUL Pineview Reservoir Inflow Wheeler Ck nr Huntsville APR-JUL

2
APR-JUL
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 CAUSEY RESERVOIR EAST CANYON RESERVOIR ECHO RESERVOIR LOST CREEK RESERVOIR PINEVIEW RESERVOIR ROCKPORT RESERVOIR WILLARD BAY SMITH AND MOREHOUSE RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Upper Weber Lower Weber Ogden Lost Creek Current (KAF) 4.1 21.9 21.9 10.8 34.9 27.6 75.5 4.0 200.7 8 # of Sites 9 7 17 3 Last Year (KAF) 4.0 27.3 19.7 15.4 45.9 28.2 124.8 3.0 268.3 8 % Median 82% 76% 76% 83% Average (KAF) 3.2 34.7 46.3 12.3 51.4 34.5 133.7 3.6 319.7 8 Last Year % Median 85% 92% 83% 75% Capacity (KAF) 7.1 49.5 73.9 22.5 110.1 60.9 215.0 81.0 620.0 8
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Reservoirs

KAF^

April-July Forecast Weber River at Gateway
KAF
Reservoirs + Streamflow
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Weber River
162
250
412
-1.81
28
91, 89, 08, 12
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Pine View & Causey
KAF^

April-July Forecast Pineview Reservoir Inflow
KAF
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Ogden River
39.0
46.0
85.0
-2.39
11
03, 88, 01, 13
Weber-Ogden basin
! ( ( ! (! ! ( ! ( ! (
5
* # # * Ogden # *
# *
! (
! (

80
# *
5 Layton
Percent normal
! ( ! ( ! ( * # ! (
# *
# *
# * # *
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
! ( ! ( ! ( # *

80
! ( # *
# *
! ( ! ( ! (

15
! (
Cities
0 2.5 5
10
15
20 Miles
Current % Capacity
Provo & Jordan River Basins

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Provo & Jordan River Basins is much below average at 69% of normal, compared to 93% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 65%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 70% of average. Soil moisture is at 55% compared to 52% last year. Reservoir storage is at 70% of capacity, compared to 77% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 44% to 81% of average. The surface water supply index is 6% for the Provo River.
Snowpack
40 35
Soil Moisture
100%
30 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 25 20 15 10 5 0
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
UTAH LAKE
80
JORDANELLE
Percent of Average
60
DEER CREEK
40
UPPER STILLWATER
20
STRAWBERRY
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Provo R Utah Lake Jordan R Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast
Provo R Utah Lake Jordan R Salt Ck at Nephi
Forecast Period
90% (KAF)
70% (KAF)
50% (KAF)
% Avg
30% (KAF)
10% (KAF)
30yr Avg (KAF)
APR-JUL Spanish Fk at Castilla2 APR-JUL Provo R at Woodland

2
0.28 2.8 45 41 37 0.23 5.3 0.04 19.9 11.3 0.192 0.32 0.165 0.04 0.79
2.9 12.4 65 62 63 9.6 95 0.67 26 19 1.17 6 1.26 0.16 3.6
6 48 81 78 81 14 165 1.2 30 24 4.4 9.8 3.2 2.2 5.5
63% 70% 81% 72% 70% 44% 62% 68% 79% 67% 69% 69% 58% 55% 71%
11.1 84 99 96 99 22 199 1.73 35 29 4.3 13.6 4.9 3 7.4
17.2 136 128 126 125 32 278 2.5 42 37 6.6 19.2 8.6 5.2 10.1
9.5 69 100 108 116 32 265 1.76 38 36 6.4 14.2 5.5 4 7.7
APR-JUL Provo R at Hailstone2 APR-JUL Provo R bl Deek Ck Dam

2
APR-JUL American Fk ab Upper Powerplant APR-JUL Utah Lake Inflow

2
APR-JUL W Canyon Ck nr Cedar Fort APR-JUL Little Cottonwood Ck nr SLC Big Cottonwood Ck nr SLC2 APR-JUL Mill Ck nr SLC APR-JUL Parleys Ck nr SLC2 APR-JUL Dell Fk nr SLC APR-JUL Emigration Ck nr SLC APR-JUL City Ck nr SLC2 APR-JUL
2
APR-JUL
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 DEER CREEK RESERVOIR STRAWBERRY RESERVOIR UTAH LAKE JORDANELLE RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Upper Provo Jordan Utah Lake Spanish Fork Six Creeks Cottonwoods Current (KAF) 109.9 830.3 619.6 155.4 1715.3 4 # of Sites 6 15 15 5 15 7 Last Year (KAF) 119.7 896.5 698.1 184.9 1899.1 4 % Median 66% 69% 69% 64% 67% 61% Average (KAF) 107.7 658.4 752.5 242.0 1760.6 4 Last Year % Median 96% 93% 93% 92% 86% 83% Capacity (KAF) 149.7 1105.9 870.9 320.0 2446.5 4
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Deer Creek, Jordanelle

KAF^

April - July Forecast Provo River below Deer Creek
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Provo River
*EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; ^KAF, thousand acre-feet.
265
81
346
-3.70
04,03,02,92
# Salt Lake City 5 *
# *
( ! (!
# * ! (
! ( ! ( ! (
Provo-Utah LakeJordan basin

! ( ! ( ! ( # *
5
Heber City

80
# * # *
! (
# * # *
# *
# *
# * ! (
! (
# * ! ( ! (
5Provo
# *

15
! ( ! ( ! ( # *
5 Nephi
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
! ( # *
Cities
0 2.5 5 10 15 20 Miles
Current % Capacity
Tooele & Vernon Creek Basins

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Tooele & Vernon Creek Basins is below average at 81% of normal, compared to 113% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 59%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 74% of average. Soil moisture is at 28% compared to 37% last year. Reservoir storage is at 48% of capacity, compared to 27% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 50% to 68% of average.
Snowpack
40 35
Soil Moisture
100%
80% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014 30 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 25 20 15 10 5 0 0%
60%
40%
20%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Reservoir Storage
VERNON CREEK
Percent of Average
SETTLEMENT CANYON
GRANTSVILLE
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Tooele Valley Vernon Creek Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast
Tooele Valley Vernon Creek Vernon Ck nr Vernon
Forecast Period
90% (KAF)
70% (KAF)
50% (KAF)
% Avg
30% (KAF)
10% (KAF)
30yr Avg (KAF)
APR-JUL S Willow Ck nr Grantsville APR-JUL
0.028 0.12
0.31 1.21
0.7 1.8
50% 58%
1.23 2.7
2.1 3.8
1.39 3.1
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 VERNON CREEK RESERVOIR SETTLEMENT CANYON RESERVOIR GRANTSVILLE RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Tooele NW Utah Current (KAF) 0.2 0.4 1.8 2.3 3 # of Sites 3 2 Last Year (KAF) 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 3 % Median Average (KAF) 0.5 0.7 1.8 2.9 3 Capacity (KAF) 0.6 1.0 3.3 4.9 3
Last Year % Median 81% 113% 85% 120%
Salt Lake City

80
Tooele 5
* ! (#
! (

15
TooeleVernon basin
Percent normal
5 Vernon
! (
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
# *
! (
SNOTEL sites Forecast points Rivers Highways 0 2.5 5 10 15 20 Miles
Cities
Northeastern Uintah Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Northeastern Uintah Basin is below average at 87% of normal, compared to 93% last year. Precipitation in January was below average at 89%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 94% of average. Soil moisture is at 62% compared to 42% last year. Reservoir storage is at 76% of capacity, compared to 79% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 80% to 89% of average. The surface water supply index is 39% for the Blacks Fork, 87% for the Smiths Creek.
Snowpack
25
Soil Moisture
100%
20 Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014
80%
Snow Water Equivalent (in)
15
60%
10
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
140 120 100 Percent of Average 80
Reservoir Storage
MEEKS CABIN
STATELINE
60 40 20 0
FLAMING GORGE
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Northeastern Uintahs Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL EF of Smiths Fork nr Robertson 2 APR-JUL Flaming Gorge Reservoir Inflow
2
Northeastern Uintahs Blacks Fk nr Robertson
90% (KAF) 46 14.8 370 24 22 21 9.3 28
70% (KAF) 62 20 595 41 33 30 13.1 39
50% (KAF) 74 24 780 55 42 38 16 48
% Avg
30% (KAF) 87 28 990 71 52 47 19.2 58
10% (KAF) 109 35 1340 98 69 61 24 74
30yr Avg (KAF) 89 27 980 74 54 50 21 61
83% 89% 80% 74% 78% 76% 76% 79%
APR-JUL Uinta R bl Powerplant Diversion nr Neola APR-JUL Whiterocks R nr Whiterocks APR-JUL Ashley Ck nr Vernal APR-JUL Big Brush Ck ab Red Fleet Reservoir APR-JUL Lake Fork R ab Moon Lake Reservoir APR-JUL
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 FLAMING GORGE RESERVOIR STATELINE RESERVOIR MEEKS CABIN RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Blacks Fk Upper Green Lower Green Ashley Brush Current (KAF) 2849.3 6.8 13.1 2869.1 3 # of Sites 3 2 2 4 Last Year (KAF) 2982.8 4.6 6.7 2994.1 3 % Median 86% 115% 76% 80% Average (KAF) 3049.0 5.4 11.9 3066.3 3 Last Year % Median 86% 114% 98% 108% Capacity (KAF) 3749.0 12.0 32.5 3793.5 3
Northeastern Utah
# * # * ! (
! ( ! (
Manila5
! ( ! (
! ( ! (
! (
# *
V U
44
! (
! (
Percent normal

191
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
Cities
0 2.5 5
10
15
20 Miles
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Meeks Cabin Reservoir

KAF^
Blacks Fork Surface Water Supply Index

April-July forecast Blacks Fork nr Robertson
KAF
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Blacks Fork
6.9
74.0
80.9
-0.91
39
01, 03, 13, 06
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Stateline Reservoir

KAF^
Smiths Fork Surface Water Supply Index

April-July forecast EF Smiths Fork nr Robertson
KAF
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Smiths Fork
6.8
24.0
30.8
3.06
87
10, 01, 11
Current % Capacity
Duchesne River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Duchesne River Basin is below average at 78% of normal, compared to 98% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 64%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 72% of average. Soil moisture is at 33% compared to 33% last year. Reservoir storage is at 74% of capacity, compared to 76% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 36% to 79% of average. The surface water supply index is 49% for the Western Uintahs, 17% for the Eastern Uintahs.
Snowpack
Soil Moisture
100%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
STRAWBERRY
CURRANT CREEK MOON LAKE
60
STARVATION UPPER STILLWATER BIG SAND WASH
40
20
RED FLEET STEINAKER
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Duchesne River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Duchesne River Duchesne R nr Tabiona 2 APR-JUL Strawberry R nr Duchesne
2
Forecast Period
90% (KAF) 47 17.3 3.1 92 72 91 7.7 46 28 38 32 5.4
70% (KAF) 65 36 11.4 151 153 121 10.7 59 39 49 43 9
50% (KAF) 78 52 20 200 225 144 13 69 47 58 51 12
% Avg 72% 46% 36% 61% 58% 74% 70% 78% 77% 78% 77% 60%
30% (KAF) 93 71 31 255 310 169 15.5 79 56 67 60 15.4
10% (KAF) 116 105 52 350 465 210 19.6 96 71 83 74 21
30yr Avg (KAF) 108 112 55 330 385 195 18.6 88 61 74 66 20
APR-JUL Strawberry R nr Soldier Springs Duchesne R at Myton

2 2
APR-JUL APR-JUL Duchesne R nr Randlett

2
APR-JUL Duchesne R ab Knight Diversion 2 APR-JUL WF Duchesne R at VAT Diversion APR-JUL Rock Ck nr Mountain Home 2 APR-JUL Yellowstone R nr Altonah APR-JUL Upper Stillwater Reservoir Inflow APR-JUL Lake Fk R Bl Moon Lk nr Mountain Home Currant Ck Reservoir Inflow
2 2
APR-JUL APR-JUL
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 STEINAKER RESERVOIR RED FLEET RESERVOIR BIG SAND WASH RESERVOIR UPPER STILLWATER RESERVOIR STARVATION RESERVOIR MOON LAKE RESERVOIR CURRANT CREEK RESERVOIR STRAWBERRY RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Strawberry Lakefork Yellowstone Uintah Whiterocks Current (KAF) 10.6 10.7 22.3 9.3 146.1 23.1 14.8 830.3 1067.2 8 # of Sites 5 6 2 Last Year (KAF) 11.5 13.2 14.4 8.9 130.7 9.4 14.9 896.5 1099.4 8 % Median Average (KAF) 21.7 17.9 18.5 8.6 138.8 24.4 14.9 658.4 903.2 8 Capacity (KAF) 33.4 25.7 25.7 32.5 165.3 35.8 15.5 1105.9 1439.8 8
Last Year % Median 68% 100% 80% 90% 89% 123%
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Red Fleet & Steinaker
KAF^

April-July Forecast Big Brush & Ashley Creek
KAF
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Eastern Uintah
#
21.3
54.0
75.3
-2.74
17
94, 04, 94, 03
February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Starvation & Upper Stillwater
KAF^

April-July Forecast Rock Creek & Duchesne River
KAF
KAF
SWSI
Percentile
%
Western Uintah
155
147
302
-0.09
49
76, 08, 87, 73
Duchesne basin
! ( ! (

191
! ( ! (
! ( ( # *!
! (
# * ! (

40
# *
! (
* ! ( ! (# # ( * ! # * # *
# *
# *
Vernal 5
# *
! (
# * # * * # *#
5
Duchesne
Roosevelt

40
# * ! (
# *
# *
! ( Percent normal

191
" ) < 50% " 50 - 69% ! ( " ) ) " ) * " ) 70 - 89% # " ) 90 - 109% " ) 110 - 129% " ) 130 - 149% 5 " ) > 150% " ) no % avail.
SNOTEL sites Forecast points Rivers Highways Cities
10
20
30
40 Miles
Current % Capacity
Lower Sevier River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Lower Sevier River Basin is much below average at 59% of normal, compared to 100% last year. Precipitation in January was below average at 71%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 82% of average. Soil moisture is at 28% compared to 32% last year. Reservoir storage is at 49% of capacity, compared to 61% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 28% to 73% of average. The surface water supply index is 46% for the Lower Sevier.
Snowpack
35 30 25 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 20 15 10 5 0
Soil Moisture
120% 100% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
60
SEVIER BRIDGE
40
20
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Lower Sevier River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL Oak Ck nr Oak City APR-JUL 0.24 0.49 0.7 43% 0.95 1.4 1.62 90% (KAF) 0.35 70% (KAF) 0.9 50% (KAF) 1.5 30% (KAF) 2.3 10% (KAF) 4 30yr Avg (KAF) 5.4
Lower Sevier River Chicken Ck nr Levan
% Avg
28%
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 SEVIER BRIDGE RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Lower Sevier Current (KAF) 116.1 116.1 1 # of Sites 1 Last Year (KAF) 144.2 144.2 1 % Median Average (KAF) 155.7 155.7 1 Capacity (KAF) 236.0 236.0 1
Last Year % Median 59% 100%
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Sevier Bridge Reservoir

KAF^

April-July Forecast Inflow to Sevier Bridge Reservoir
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Lower Sevier
116.1
72
188
-0.30
46
08,01,96,07
Lower Sevier basin

15
5 Nephi
# *
! (
5 Delta
# *! (
Fillmore
! (

15
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
! ( # *
Cities
0 2.5 5 10 15 20 Miles
Current % Capacity
Upper Sevier River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Upper Sevier River Basin is below average at 74% of normal, compared to 104% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 37%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 74% of average. Soil moisture is at 57% compared to 45% last year. Reservoir storage is at 69% of capacity, compared to 54% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 38% to 104% of average. The surface water supply index is 36% for the Upper Sevier.
Snowpack
Soil Moisture
100%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
PANGUITCH LAKE
60
OTTER CREEK
40
20
PIUTE
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Upper Sevier River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL EF Sevier R nr Kingston APR-JUL Sevier R nr Kingston APR-JUL Sevier R bl Piute Dam APR-JUL Clear Ck ab Diversions nr Sevier APR-JUL Salina Ck nr Emery APR-JUL 0.24 0.45 3 38% 5.5 9.2 7.9 0.82 8 13 62% 17.8 25 21 -9.1 23 45 83% 67 99 54 0.66 8.7 23 70% 37 58 33 5.6 18.9 24 104% 37 50 23 90% (KAF) 9.4 70% (KAF) 24 50% (KAF) 34 30% (KAF) 44 10% (KAF) 58 30yr Avg (KAF) 48
Upper Sevier River Sevier R at Hatch
% Avg
71%
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 PIUTE RESERVOIR OTTER CREEK RESERVOIR PANGUITCH LAKE Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Upper Sevier Middle Sevier E Fk Sevier Current (KAF) 52.7 39.7 8.2 100.6 3 # of Sites 13 8 4 Last Year (KAF) 44.5 27.4 6.8 78.7 3 % Median Average (KAF) 49.2 35.0 12.7 96.9 3 Capacity (KAF) 71.8 52.5 22.3 146.6 3
Last Year % Median 74% 104% 67% 99% 86% 108%
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Piute & Otter Creek Reservoir

KAF^

April-July Forecast Inflow to Piute Reservoir
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Upper Sevier
92.3
45
137
-1.17
36
68,93,59,09
Upper Sevier basin

Fillmore 5
! ( ! (
5 Richfield
# *
! ( ! ( ! (

70
# * ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (
Beaver 5
# * # *# *
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.

15
! ( ! ( ! (
! (
! ( ! ( ! ( ! (
# *
! (
Cities
10
20
30
40 Miles
Current % Capacity
San Pitch River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the San Pitch River Basin is below average at 70% of normal, compared to 94% last year. Precipitation in January was below average at 70%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 82% of average. Soil moisture is at 63% compared to 49% last year. Reservoir storage is at 2% of capacity, compared to 2% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for Manti Creek is 78% of average. The surface water supply index is 11% for the San Pitch.
Snowpack
40 35
Soil Moisture
100%
80% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014 30 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 25 20 15 10 5 0 0%
60%
40%
20%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
140 120 100 Percent of Average 80 60 40 20 0
Reservoir Storage
GUNNISON RESERVOIR
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
San Pitch River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL Sevier R nr Gunnison APR-JUL 19.2 51 72 73% 93 125 99 90% (KAF) 7.3 70% (KAF) 10.6 50% (KAF) 13 30% (KAF) 16.2 10% (KAF) 21 30yr Avg (KAF) 16.7
San Pitch River Manti Ck bl Dugway Ck nr Manti
% Avg
78%
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 GUNNISON RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Upper San Pitch Lower San Pitch Current (KAF) 0.5 0.5 1 # of Sites 2 5 Last Year (KAF) 0.5 0.5 1 % Median Average (KAF) 11.4 11.4 1 Capacity (KAF) 20.3 20.3 1
Last Year % Median 64% 88% 74% 97%
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Gunnison Reservoir

KAF^
San Pitch Surface Water Supply Index

April-July forecast Manti Creek
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
San Pitch
0.5
13.0
13.5
-3.27
11
90,02,03,04
San Pitch basin

! ( ! (
Mt. Pleasant 5
! (

89
Ephraim 5
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
! (
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
( ! (!
# *
! (
# *
Gunnison
! (
! (
! (
Cities
2.5
10
15
20 Miles
Current % Capacity
Price & San Rafael Basins

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Price & San Rafael Basins is much below average at 67% of normal, compared to 91% last year. Precipitation in January was below average at 74%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 77% of average. Soil moisture is at 59% compared to 37% last year. Reservoir storage is at 40% of capacity, compared to 48% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 52% to 88% of average. The surface water supply index is 12% for the Price River, 30% for Joe's Valley, 47% for Ferron Creek.
Snowpack
35 30
Soil Moisture
100%
25 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 20 15 10 5 0
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
120 100
Reservoir Storage
SCOFIELD
MILLER FLAT
Percent of Average
80
CLEVELAND LAKE
60 40 20
JOES VALLEY HUNTINGTON NORTH MILLSITE
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Price San Rafael Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL Price R nr Scofield Reservoir2 APR-JUL White R bl Tabbyune Creek APR-JUL Green R at Green River, UT Electric Lake Inflow APR-JUL Huntington Ck nr Huntington Joes Valley Reservoir Inflow APR-JUL Ferron Ck (Upper Station) nr Ferron APR-JUL 18.4 24 28 74% 32 40 38 24 33 40 71% 48 61 56
2 2
Price San Rafael Fish Ck ab Reservoir nr Scofield
90% (KAF) 11.9 12.4 3.3 1540 4.3 14.7
70% (KAF) 17.5 20 5.9 2140 6.9 22
50% (KAF) 22 27 8 2610 9 27
% Avg
30% (KAF) 27 34 10.4 3120 11.4 33
10% (KAF) 35 47 14.6 3960 15.5 43
30yr Avg (KAF) 30 41 15.5 2960 13.3 40
73% 66% 52% 88% 68% 68%
APR-JUL
APR-JUL
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 JOES VALLEY RESERVOIR MILLSITE HUNTINGTON NORTH RESERVOIR CLEVELAND LAKE MILLER FLAT RESERVOIR SCOFIELD RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Price San Rafael Current (KAF) 30.0 11.3 3.0 3.0 2.5 14.5 64.2 6 # of Sites 6 6 Last Year (KAF) 34.6 7.0 3.0 2.5 1.7 27.8 76.7 6 % Median Average (KAF) 39.9 10.1 2.7 3.0 2.4 29.9 88.1 6 Capacity (KAF) 61.6 16.7 4.2 5.4 5.2 65.8 158.9 6
Last Year % Median 67% 91% 67% 91%
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Joe's Valley

KAF^

April-July Forecast Inflow to Joe's Valley
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Joe's Valley
#
30.0
40.0
70.0
-1.70
30
92, 94, 13, 04
Joe's Valley - Surface Water Supply Index February

160 140
Streamflow
Reservoir
120
100
Thousand Acre-ft
80
60
40
20
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Scofield Reservoir

KAF^

April-July Forecast @ Scofield
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Price River
#
14.5
27.0
41.5
-3.15
12
90, 77, 91, 02
Price River - Surface Water Supply Index February

180 160
Streamflow
Reservoir
140
120
Thousand Acre-ft
100
80
60
40
20
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Millsite Reservoir

KAF^

April-July Forecast Ferron creek
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Ferron Creek
#
11.3
28.0
39.3
-0.29
47
03, 12, 78, 01
Ferron Creek - Surface Water Supply Index Streamflow February

120
Reservoir
100
80
Thousand Acre-ft
60
40
20
Price-San Rafael ! ( basin

! (
# *
# *
! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! (! (
5 Price
! (! (
# *
Castle Dale
# * # *
5 # *Green River
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.

70
SNOTEL sites
( Forecast points!
Rivers Highways
Cities
10
20
30
40 Miles
Current % Capacity
Southeastern Utah Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Southeastern Utah Basin is below average at 77% of normal, compared to 103% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 24%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 75% of average. Soil moisture is at 59% compared to 22% last year. Reservoir storage is at 48% of capacity, compared to 13% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 28% to 102% of average. The surface water supply index is 39% for Moab.
Snowpack
Soil Moisture
100%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
140 120 100 Percent of Average 80
Reservoir Storage
KEN'S LAKE
60 40 20 0
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Southeastern Utah Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL South Ck ab Lloyds Reservoir nr Monticello MAR-JUL Colorado R nr Cisco 2 APR-JUL San Juan R near Bluff
2
Southeastern Utah Mill Ck at Sheley Tunnel nr Moab
90% (KAF) 1.54 0.055 2800 550
70% (KAF) 2.5 0.168 3680 760
50% (KAF) 3.2 0.3 4350 920
% Avg
30% (KAF) 4 0.49 5070 1100
10% (KAF) 5.5 0.88 6240 1390
30yr Avg (KAF) 4.3 1.09 4280 1100
74% 28% 102% 84%
APR-JUL
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 KEN'S LAKE Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Lasal Mtns Lower San Juan Lower Green Current (KAF) 1.1 1.1 1 # of Sites 1 1 2 Last Year (KAF) 0.3 0.3 1 % Median Average (KAF) 1.1 1.1 1 Capacity (KAF) 2.3 2.3 1
Last Year % Median 75% 113% 74% 101% 76% 98%
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Ken's Lake Reservoir

KAF^

April-July Forecast Mill Creek at Sheley
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Moab
#
1.1
3.2
4.3
-0.89
39
00, 13, 06, 08
Moab - Surface Water Supply Index February

14 12
Streamflow
Reservoir
10
Thousand Acre-ft
Southeastern Utah
Vernal
5 Price
! (
Green River 5

70
# *
Moab
! # *! ( (
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
5 Monticello ! (* ! (#
* #
Cities
0 5 10
20
30
40 Miles
Dirty Devil Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Dirty Devil Basin is near average at 90% of normal, compared to 97% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 64%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 86% of average. Soil moisture is at 29% compared to 18% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 70% to 75% of average.
Snowpack
25
Soil Moisture
100%
80%
15
60%
10
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Percent of Average
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Dirty Devil Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Dirty Devil Muddy Ck nr Emery APR-JUL Seven Mile Ck nr Fish Lake APR-JUL 2.9 4.4 5.5 75% 6.8 8.8 7.3 7.6 11.2 14 70% 17.1 22 19.9 Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF)
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Muddy Fremont # of Sites 3 3 % Median Last Year % Median 75% 96% 91% 97%
! ( * #
Dirty Devil basin

70
! ( # * ! (
Hanksville Torrey
! ( ! ( Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

! ( # *
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
Cities
10
20
30
40 Miles
Escalante River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Escalante River Basin is near average at 108% of normal, compared to 99% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 19%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 91% of average. Soil moisture is at 37% compared to 20% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for Pine Creek is 83% of average.
Snowpack
25
Soil Moisture
100%
80%
15
60%
10
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
240 220 200 180 Percent of Average 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Escalante River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Escalante River Pine Ck nr Escalante APR-JUL 0.75 1.42 2 83% 2.7 3.8 2.4 Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF)
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Escalante Paria # of Sites 3 2 % Median Last Year % Median 108% 99% 132% 122%
Escalante basin
! (
! (
V U
12
! (
5 Boulder
! (
# *
Escalante

89
# *
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
! ( # *
Cities
0 2.75 5.5 11 16.5 22 Miles
Current % Capacity
Beaver River Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Beaver River Basin is below average at 72% of normal, compared to 102% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 28%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 79% of average. Soil moisture is at 38% compared to 35% last year. Reservoir storage is at 46% of capacity, compared to 45% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for the Beaver River is 77% of average. The surface water supply index is 43% for the Beaver River.
Snowpack
30 25
Soil Moisture
80%
60% 20 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 15 10 5 0 0% Max Avg Min WY 2014

Saturation, volume %
40%
20%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
140 120 100 Percent of Average 80 60 40 20 0
Reservoir Storage
MINERSVILLE RESERVOIR
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Beaver River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Beaver River Beaver R nr Beaver APR-JUL 5.2 14.1 20 77% 26 35 26 Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF)
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 MINERSVILLE RESERVOIR Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Beaver Current (KAF) 10.6 10.6 1 # of Sites 2 Last Year (KAF) 10.6 10.6 1 % Median Average (KAF) 13.4 13.4 1 Capacity (KAF) 23.3 23.3 1
Last Year % Median 72% 102%
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Minersville Reservoir

KAF^

April-July forecast Beaver River at Beaver
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Beaver
10.6
20.0
30.6
-0.62
43
65,62,12,10
Beaver basin

15

70
Milford
Beaver 5
# *
! (
! (
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
! ( # *
0 1.5 3
12 Miles
Cities
Current % Capacity
Southwestern Utah Basin

2/1/2014
Snowpack in the Southwestern Utah Basin is much below average at 68% of normal, compared to 110% last year. Precipitation in January was much below average at 24%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Jan) to 58% of average. Soil moisture is at 49% compared to 48% last year. Reservoir storage is at 40% of capacity, compared to 50% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 38% to 94% of average. The surface water supply index is 34% for the Virgin River.
Snowpack
35 30
Soil Moisture
100%
25 Snow Water Equivalent (in) 20 15 10 5 0
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005-Current
WY 2014
Avg
Precipitation
100
Reservoir Storage
QUAIL CREEK
SAND HOLLOW GUNLOCK KOLOB
60
40
UPPER ENTERPRISE
20
LOWER ENTERPRISE LAKE POWELL
Monthly
Year-to-Date
Current % Capacity
Southwestern Utah Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Forecast Period APR-JUL Virgin R nr Hurricane APR-JUL Virgin R at Virgin APR-JUL Santa Clara R nr Pine Valley APR-JUL Coal Ck nr Cedar City APR-JUL 1.5 7.8 12 65% 16.2 22 18.6 0.56 1.49 2.4 48% 3.5 5.5 5 10.7 21 30 52% 41 59 58 3.7 13.7 24 38% 38 63 63 90% (KAF) 3870 70% (KAF) 5460 50% (KAF) 6700 30% (KAF) 8060 10% (KAF) 10300 30yr Avg (KAF) 7160
Southwestern Utah Lake Powell Inflow

2
% Avg
94%
1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of January, 2014 LAKE POWELL LOWER ENTERPRISE UPPER ENTERPRISE KOLOB RESERVOIR GUNLOCK SAND HOLLOW RESERVOIR QUAIL CREEK Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis February 1, 2014 Upper Virgin Lower Virgin Cedar City Parowan Current (KAF) 9843.0 0.8 1.0 1.7 9.7 34.0 26.4 9916.6 7 # of Sites 8 2 4 Last Year (KAF) 12190.0 0.6 2.2 5.3 6.4 36.0 23.1 12263.6 7 % Median Average (KAF) 17338.0 0.6 3.1 4.0 6.5 39.3 26.0 17417.5 7 Capacity (KAF) 24322.0 2.6 10.0 5.6 10.4 50.0 40.0 24440.6 7
Last Year % Median 71% 112% 45% 124% 67% 109%
February 1, 2014 January EOM* Quail Creek and Gunlock Reservoirs

KAF^

April-July forecast Virgin and Santa Clara Rivers
KAF
Basin or Region
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Virgin River
36.1
32
69
-1.29
34
12,87,96,08
Southwestern Utah

15
Cedar City
! (
5# *
! ( ! ( ! (! (
! (
! ( ! ( ! ( # *
! (
! (
! (! (
# *
St. George 5
# *
Hurricane
Percent normal
" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )
< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% no % avail.
! ( # *
10 15 20 Miles
Cities
0 2.5 5
2/1/2014 Basin or Region Jan EOM* Reservoirs

KAF^

April-July Stream Forecast
KAF
KAF
SWSI#
Percentile
%
Years with similar SWSI 28, 45, 29, 30 94, 76, 91, 00 12, 02, 94, 10 03, 88, 01, 13 91, 89, 08, 12 04,03,02,92 76, 08, 87, 73 94, 04, 94, 03 01, 03, 13, 06 10, 01, 11 90, 77, 91, 02 92, 94, 13, 04 03, 12, 78, 01 00, 13, 06, 08 68,93,59,09 90,02,03,04 08,01,96,07 65,62,12,10 12,87,96,08
*EOM, end of month; # SWSI, surface water supply index; ^KAF, thousand acre-feet.
Bear River Woodruff Narrows Little Bear Ogden River Weber River Provo West Uintah Basin East Uintah Basin Blacks Fork Smiths Fork Price River Joe's Valley Ferron Creek Moab Upper Sevier River San Pitch Lower Sevier River Beaver River Virgin River
536 14.4 9.7 39.0 162 265 155 21.3 6.9 6.8 14.5 30.0 11.3 1.1 92 0.5 116 10.6 36.1
55 94.0 24.0 46.0 250 81 147 54.0 74.0 24.0 27.0 40.0 28.0 3.2 45 13 72 20.0 32
591 108.4 33.7 85.0 412 346 302 75.3 80.9 30.8 41.5 70.0 39.3 4.3 137 14 188 30.6 69
-1.72 -1.45 -0.91 -2.39 -1.81 -3.70 -0.09 -2.74 -0.91 3.06 -3.15 -1.70 -0.29 -0.89 -1.17 -3.27 -0.30 -0.62 -1.29
29 33 39 11 28 6 49 17 39 87 12 30 47 39 36 11 46 43 34
What is a Surface Water Supply Index?
The Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) is a predictive indicator of total surface water availability within a watershed for the spring and summer water use seasons. The index is calculated by combining pre-runoff reservoir storage (carryover) with forecasts of spring and summer streamflow which are based on current snowpack and other hydrologic variables. SWSI values are scaled from +4.1 (abundant supply) to -4.1 (extremely dry) with a value of zero (0) indicating median water supply as compared to historical analysis. SWSI's are calculated in this fashion to be consistent with other hydroclimatic indicators such as the Palmer Drought Index and the Precipitation index. Utah Snow Surveys has also chosen to display the SWSI value as well as a PERCENT CHANCE OF NON-EXCEEDANCE. While this is a cumbersome name, it has the simplest application. It can be best thought of as a scale of 1 to 99 with 1 being the drought of record (driest possible conditions) and 99 being the flood of record (wettest possible conditions) and a value of 50 representing average conditions. This rating scale is a percentile rating as well, for example a SWSI of 75% means that this years water supply is greater than 75% of all historical events and that only 25% of the time has it been exceeded. Conversely a SWSI of 10% means that 90% of historical events have been greater than this one and that only 10% have had less total water supply. This scale is comparable between basins: a SWSI of 50% means the same relative ranking on watershed A as it does on watershed B, which may not be strictly true of the +4 to -4 scale. For more information on the SWSI go to: www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/ on the water supply page. The entire period of historical record for reservoir storage and streamflow is available.
Issued by Jason Weller Chief Natural Resources Conservation Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Prepared by Snow Survey Staff Randall Julander, Supervisor Troy Brosten, Assistant Supervisor Beau Uriona, Hydrologist Jordan Clayton, Hydrologist Jeffrey OConnell, Hydrologist Bob Nault, Electronics Technician Kent Sutcliffe, Soil Scientist
Released by David Brown State Conservationist Natural Resources Conservation Service Salt Lake City, Utah
YOU MAY OBTAIN THIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS CURENT SNOW, PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE AND SOIL MOISTURE, RESERVOIR, SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX, AND OTHER DATA BY VISITING OUR WEB SITE @: http://www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
Snow Survey, NRCS, USDA 245 North Jimmy Doolittle Road Salt Lake City, UT 84116
(801) 524-5213
Utah Climate and Water Report

Natural Resources Conservation Service Salt Lake City, UT

Utah Water Supply Outlook, February 2014

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Utah Water Supply Outlook, February 2014

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Utah Water Supply Outlook Report February, 2014

Water Supply Outlook Reports

How forecasts are made

STATE OF UTAH GENERAL OUTLOOK

Previous Year % Capacity

80% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014

Southwestern Utah Upper Sevier

Lower Sevier Price Basin

Duchesne Basin Provo Basin

Weber & Ogden Bear River Basin

Previous Year % Capacity

Utah streamflow and reservoir forecast points

< 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149%

Forecast points Cities Rivers Highways

> 150% no % avail.

Utah SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal

Feb 01, 2014

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Basin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Median

Great Salt Lake

Salt Lake City

Lower Sevier River

Price - San Rafael

Provisional Data Subject to Revision

Upper Sevier River

Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation Basin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Average

Great Salt Lake

Salt Lake City

Lower Sevier River

Price - San Rafael

Provisional Data Subject to Revision

Upper Sevier River

Previous Year % Capacity

Bear River Basin

80% Saturation, volume % Max Avg Min WY 2014

Previous Year % Capacity

Data Current as of: 2/5/2014 9:47:10 AM

Bear River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

90% (KAF) 58 28 0.44 40 1.83 1.23 14.3 7.5

70% (KAF) 82 84 1.73 61 11 13.8 44 22

50% (KAF) 94 106 2.5 71 55 24 64 30

% Avg 84% 88% 66% 80% 30% 59% 58% 70%

30% (KAF) 115 161 3.5 90 110 34 84 42

10% (KAF) 139 217 4.8 111 192 49 114 56

30yr Avg (KAF) 112 121 3.8 89 183 41 111 43

APR-JUL Blacksmith Fk nr Hyrum APR-JUL

February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Bear Lake

Surface Water Supply Index

Years with similar SWSI

28, 45, 29, 30

February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Woodruff Narrows Reservoir

Surface Water Supply Index

Years with similar SWSI

94, 76, 91, 00

February 1, 2014 Basin or Region January EOM* Hyrum Reservoir

Surface Water Supply Index

Years with similar SWSI

12, 02, 94, 10

" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

SNOTEL sites Forecast points Rivers Highways

Raft River Basin

Data Current as of: 2/5/2014 9:47:08 AM

Raft River Streamflow Forecasts - February 1, 2014

" ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " )

SNOTEL sites Forecast points Rivers Highways