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Big Bets & Black Swans

Big Bets & Black Swans

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President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He’s facing a number of critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs.

The president’s advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order.

This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories:
Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world.


Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on.


Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration’s higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences.


Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare.


Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.
President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He’s facing a number of critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs.

The president’s advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order.

This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories:
Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world.


Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on.


Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration’s higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences.


Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare.


Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.

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Published by: Brookings Institution on Feb 07, 2014
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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BIG BESBLACK SWANS
JANUARY 2014
A PRESIDENTIAL BRIEFING BOOK
Policy Recommendations or President Obama in 2014
BIGBETS
DOUBLEDOWNS
HOLDS
 BLACK SWANS
BLACK SWANS
 
NIGHT-MARES
 
BIG BESBLACK SWANS
JANUARY 2014
A PRESIDENTIAL BRIEFING BOOK
Policy Recommendations or President Obama in 2014
Edited by ed Piccone, Steven Pier and homas WrightProject Design by Gail Chale 
BIGBETS
DOUBLEDOWNS
HOLDS
 BLACK SWANS
BLACK SWANS
 
NIGHT-MARES
 
BIG BES AND BLACK SWANS: A Presidential Brieing Book iii
INRODUCION
As President Obama prepares his 2014 State o the Union address, the United States aces a number o critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. His advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. President Obama then must decide which priorities to pur-sue and how best to exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order. Again this year, the Foreign Policy scholars at Brookings are offering President Obama and his Cabinet a set o policy analyses and recommendations rom an outside perspective. aking advantage o the di- versity and depth o our scholars’ expertise, the Brookings Foreign Policy Program seeks to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives. “Big Bets & Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book” is a series o memos designed to present Pres-ident Obama with a suggested “to do” list, addressing the most significant oreign policy challenges in the year to come. It builds on our widely read Brookings Foreign Policy briefing book released in Janu-ary 2013. Tis year, the memos are divided into five categories: Big Bets, Double Downs, Black Swans, Nightmares and Holds. Te Big Bets are issues where Foreign Policy scholars believe the president should consider invest ing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transormational impact on America and the world. Double Downs are derived rom the Big Bets o 2013, recommenda-tions that the president redouble his efforts on last year’s suggested policy initiatives. Te Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration rom higher purposes, events so dramatically negative that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid them or to mitigate their consequences. Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome or U.S. interests and the global order, and or which the ad-ministration should prepare. Finally, Holds are updated recommendations to stay the course on policy approaches put orward in 2013.President Obama has just three years lef in office to define his legacy in world affairs. Now is the time or him to ocus on some Big Bets and avoid or mitigate Black Swans to shape the uture o U.S. and global security and prosperity.
ACKNOWLEDGMENS
Te Foreign Policy Program is very grateul to David Rubenstein and Ben Jacobs or their continued generous support o this project. Brookings scholars maintain the highest standards o quality and in-dependence in their research, analysis and prescriptions. Tis publication is solely a reflection o their individual views.
BIGBETS
DOUBLEDOWNS
HOLDS
 BLACK SWANS
BLACK SWANS
 
NIGHT-MARES

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