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Global Equity Research

Global Equity Research

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 ANY
 
 AUTHORS NAMED ON THIS REPORT ARE RESEARCH ANALYSTS UNLESS OTHERWISEINDICATED.PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 135 gl
 
Global
The Business of Ageing
Older workers, older consumers: big implications for companies
 John Llewellyn
(44) 20 7102 2272
 John.Llewellyn@nomura.com
NI Plc, London
Camille Chaix-Viros
(44) 20 7102 9616
Camille.Chaix@nomura.com
NI Plc, London
ECONOMICS
Global EconomicsNovember 25, 2008Nomura International plc, London
http://www.nomura.com
Global Equity Research
Analyst Certification
We, John Llewellyn and CamilleChaix-Viros, hereby certify (1) thatthe views expressed in this reportaccurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in thisreport and (2) no part of ourcompensation was, is or will bedirectly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this report.
 
November 25, 20082 Nomura Equity Research The Business of Ageing
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements............................................................................................3
 
Executive Summary.............................................................................................4
 
Preamble: The Ageing of Populations – Problem or Opportunity..................................6
 
Key Elements of the Ageing of Populations..............................................................8
 
Picture book: Age Pyramids...............................................................................12
 
Redefining ‘Old’..............................................................................................27
 
Population Ageing and the Economy...................................................................34
 
The Challenge of an Older Workforce.................................................................49
 
Population Ageing and Financial Markets.............................................................57
 
Picture Book: Demographics and Asset Prices........................................................62
 
Challenges and Opportunities for Companies.......................................................72
 
Autos.............................................................................................................74
 
Banks............................................................................................................76
 
Consumer.......................................................................................................79
 
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals.........................................................................83
 
Insurance......................................................................................................102
 
Leisure.........................................................................................................105
 
Media.........................................................................................................112
 
Real Estate....................................................................................................115
 
Food Retail...................................................................................................118
 
General Retail...............................................................................................123
 
Technology...................................................................................................126
 
Key terms.....................................................................................................128
 
References....................................................................................................130
 
 
November 25, 2008Nomura Equity Research The Business of Ageing 3
 Acknowledgements
Particular appreciation is due to my collaborators, Camille Chaix-Viros and Francis Breedon. Camille worked indefatigably,following every research lead tenaciously, while providing a strong logic, both to the structure of the publication and to itsargumentation. Francis, with his gift for focusing on the important, his powerful command of economic theory, and his skill atextracting information from data, generated significant insights and also contributed importantly to the basic presentation. Jeremy Isaacs first suggested the topic. Paul Sheard offered encouragement and support throughout. Ian Smith helped usconsiderably at the outset of the study, drawing on his encyclopaedic knowledge of the healthcare industry to draw up asynopsis of the principal ageing and health issues that helped us plan a major part of the entire study. Jeremy Apfel helped us todraw out and highlight principal messages. Andrew Gowers, in his inimitable style, provided impetus. Peter Sherratt and PiersLe Marchant tendered focused observations at a key point. Andrew Hyde offered robust help and incisive thoughts. AndTheodore Roosevelt IV telephoned us from airports all around the world with helpful comments, criticisms, and suggestions.Paul Norris and Hua He encouraged us and helped secure the contributions of the equity analysts that constitute the second partof the publication. Ethan Harris gave us extensive comments on the first chapters; and Rob Subbaraman, Mingchun Sun, SonalVarma, Young Sun Kwon, Yoon Ha Janet Choi, and Kenichi Kawasaki contributed many of the Asian examples that so enrichthose chapters.Specific mention should also be made of the numerous useful discussions, over innumerable cups of coffee, with Ian Scott, whoalso contributed, with Francis Breedon, and Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, to the analysis of the potential effects of ageing populations onfinancial markets. Many other useful discussions held at various stages should also be mentioned, including particularly thosewith Michele Bareggi, Varun Chandra, Etienne Comon, Martin Davison, Albert Desclee, Scott Ferguson, Michael Florig, SunilGandhi, Sadik Hamami, Giles Harrison, Christoph Ladanyi, John McCarthy, Ed Marley-Shaw, Vasant Naik, Chris Patrick, Joshua Ponniah, Alan Rubenstein, Huarong Tang, Murray Wood, Natasha Wright, and Mohammed Yangui. Jorgen Elmeskov, Director of the Policy Studies Branch in OECD’s Department of Economics, read through and commented onan entire draft of the front part of the study. His comments, characteristically, were powerful, deep, and pertinent. We are mostobliged. John Martin, Director of the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, and his colleagues MartineDurand and Mark Pearson generously gave of their time to discuss a number of issues, and pointed us to a range ofpublications and data sources that proved most helpful.Professor John Van Reenen, Director of the London School of Economics Centre for Economic Performance took us, over aproductive lunch, through a range of the most challenging and important theoretical and empirical issues. Over another, equallyproductive, lunch, Dr Paola Subacchi, Research Director for International Economics at Chatham House, gave us a range ofcomments that focused on a number of the key policy and structural issues. And Dr. David McCarthy, of the Tanaka BusinessSchool at Imperial College, generously discussed a range of issues with us.Professor Stephen Smith of the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial College helped to put us straight on a range of medical andsocial issues about which we were particularly uncertain. Lord Turnbull not only discussed the general ageing issue with us butalso kindly shared with us his own excellent work on the topic. Marion Palmer helpfully came at the matter from the scientist’sangle to comment on a number of the chapters. Howard Phillips, Chief Executive of McCarthy & Stone plc, spent several hourswith us discussing the housing needs of the older generations, and the ways that the sector will likely evolve.Finally, Melanie Saint-Cyr, Joan Male, and Ruth Llewellyn each went through the final version with a keen eye and a sharppencil, for which we are most grateful.Inevitably, however, errors will remain, of logic, fact, and detail. For those, we, as authors, remain solely responsible.

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