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Straus Military Reform Project
September 8, 2008
Joint Strike Fighter: The Latest Hotspot in the U.S.Defense Meltdown
While its illusion as an "affordable" multi-role fighter-bomber is alive and well inWashington D.C., the F-35 "Joint Strike Fighter" is already a disaster, and the bad newshas barely begun to roll in. Internationally recognized combat aircraft designer PierreSprey and Straus Military Reform Project Director Winslow Wheeler summarize the manyfailures in a new opinion piece that appears in the Sept. 10, 2008 issue of 
 Janes DefenceWeekly
and is reproduced below.
"Joint Strike Fighter: The Latest Hotspot in the U.S. Defense Meltdown"
 
by Pierre M. Sprey and Winslow T. Wheeler
 Politicians in the US are papering over serious problems in the country's armed forces.Equating exposure of flaws with failure to 'support the troops', Congress, the presidentialcandidates and think-tank pundits repeatedlydub the US armed forces “the best in the world”. Behind this vapid rhetoric, a meltdown –decades in the making – is occurring.The collapse is occurring in all the armed forces, but it is most obvious in the US AirForce (USAF). There, despite a much needed change in leadership, nothing is being doneto reverse he deplorable situation the air force has put itself into. The USAF's annualbudget is now in excess of USD 150 billion: well above what it averaged during the ColdWar. Despite the plentiful dollars, the USAF's inventory of tactical aircraft is smallertoday than it has ever been since the end of the Second World War.At the same time, the shrunken inventory is older, on average, than it has been everbefore. Since George W Bush came to office in 2001, the air force has received a majorbudget 'plus up', supposedly to address its problems. In January 2001 a projection of itsbudgets showed USD 850 billion for 2001 to 2009. It actually received USD 1,059 billion– not counting the additional billions (more than USD 80 billion) it also received to fundits operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.Page 1of 3friendly printed version:Joint Strike Fighter: The Latest Hotspot in the U.S. Defense Meltdown10/9/2008http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=4370&from_page=../program/document...
 
With the 'plus up' of more than USD 200 billion, the air force actually made its inventorytroubles worse: from 2001 to today, tactical aircraft numbers shrank by about 100 aircraftand their average age increased from 15 years to 20, according to the CongressionalBudget Office.Not to worry, the air force and its politicians assert, the solution is in hand; it is called theF-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter. It will do all three tactical missions: air-to-groundbombing, air-to-air combat and specialised close air support for ground troops – and therewill be tailored variants for the air force, navy and marines. Most importantly, it will be'affordable' and, thus, the US can buy it in such large numbers that it will resolve all thoseshrinking and ageing problems.Baloney. When the first official cost and quantity estimate for the F-35 showed up onCapitol Hill in 2001, the Department of Defense (DoD) predicted 2,866 units for USD 226billion. That is a not inconsiderable USD 79 million for each aircraft. The latest officialestimate is for a smaller number of aircraft (2,456) to cost more (USD 299 billion). Thatrepresents a 54 per cent increase in the per-unit cost to USD 122 million, and thedeliveries will be two years late. The Government Accountability Office reported inMarch that the US can expect the costs to increase some more – perhaps by as much asUSD 38 billion – with deliveries likely to be delayed again, perhaps by another year. Thatis just the start of the rest of the bad news. The price increases and schedule delays citedabove are for currently known problems. Unfortunately, the F-35 has barely begun itsflight-test programme, which means more problems are likely to be discovered – perhapseven more serious than the serious engine, flight control, electrical and avionics glitchesfound thus far.Take the F-22 experience; it was in a similarly early stage of flight testing in 1998. Itsprogramme unit cost was then USD 184 million per aircraft but it climbed to abreathtaking USD 355 million by 2008. Considering that the F-35 is even more complex (19 million lines of computer code compared to 4 million, and three separate serviceversions compared to one), the horrifying prospect of the F-35's unit cost doubling is notoutlandish. The last tri-service, tri-mission 'fighter' the US built, the F-111, tripled in costbefore being cut back to barely half the number originally contemplated.The DoD currently plans to spend more than USD 10 billion to produce fewer than 100 F-35s per year at peak production. USAF leaders would like to increase the production rateand add in a few more F-22s. That plan is irresponsibly unaffordable (which contributed tothe recent departure of the Secretary of the Air Force and the Air Force Chief of Staff).The unaffordability will become even more obvious when the unavoidable F-35 costincreases emerge. The inevitable reaction, just as in past programmes, will be a slashing of annual production, the opposite of the increase the air force needs to address its inventoryproblems. The DoD fix is simple: test the F-35 less and buy more copies before the testingis completed. Two test aircraft and hundreds of flight-test hours have been eliminatedfrom the programme, and there is now a plan to produce more than 500 copies before theemasculated testing is finished. This approach will not fix the programme but it will helppaper over the problems and make the F-35 more cancellation proof in the Pentagon andon Capitol Hill.It gets even worse. Even without new problems, the F-35 is a 'dog.' If one accepts everyPage 2of 3friendly printed version:Joint Strike Fighter: The Latest Hotspot in the U.S. Defense Meltdown10/9/2008http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=4370&from_page=../program/document...
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