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Higher long-term interest rates are seldom considered a positive for the economy or the stock market. They can be beneficial, however, if they steepen the yield curve. Chart 1 illustrates a long-standing, fairly consistent and leading relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the pace of real economic growth. The dotted line in this chart represents the
In the contemporary period, of the three times the yield curve has steepened (in 2008, in late-2010, and most recently again it bottomed in mid-2012), each subsequently resulted, about a year later, in faster annual real GDP growth. Similarly, the flattening in the curve in both early-2010 and again in 2011 was followed by a significant slowdown in real GDP growth. As shown by the chart, while not a perfect relationship, most major shifts in real economic growth during the last 30 years have been preceded by changes in the slope of the yield curve.
Recently, after flattening since early-2011, the Treasury yield curve has steepened again since mid-2012 and rose significantly between May and September of last year. Right on schedule, the pace of real economic growth began improving by mid-2013 about one year after the yield curve bottomed. Encouragingly, as shown in Chart 1, the surge in the slope of the yield curve beginning last spring suggests even faster economic growth in 2014. While the Fed has begun to curtail its accommodative stance, laissez-faire monetary policy seems to be augmenting economic stimulus.
shows the change in the yield curve during the previous 12 months (i.e., whether the yield curve steepened or flattened compared to where it was a year earlier) and the solid line is the annual percent change in the S&P 500 Index during the next 12 months. Although not a perfect relationship, throughout the post-war era, how the yield curve has changed in the last year has been an important indicator for how the stock market fares in the coming year. The level of the yield curve does not appear to be as important as the change in the slope of the yield curve. When the dotted line is rising, the slope of the yield curve is steepening and this tends to be followed by positive performance from the stock market. In the past year, the yield curve has steepened by about 1% from year-ago levels suggesting a positive undertow for both economic growth and the stock market during 2014.
Chart 2 illustrates yield curve movements have also had a leading relationship with the stock market. The dotted line
Chart 2: Yield curve movements and the stock market Left scale (Solid)Annual percent change in S&P 500 Stock Price Index in the next 12 months Right scale (Dotted)Change in U.S. yield curve in previous 12 months
Summary
Most believe the monetary environment is turning negative for both the economy and the stock market. However, although the Federal Reserve is now tapering its QE program and bond vigilantes have begun to raise long-term yields, these represent only two aspects of monetary power. Other facets of monetary policy, some of which have been restrictive during much of this recovery, are finally starting to become more supportive. Short-term interest rates are still near zero and remain uncommonly stimulative, for the first time in this recovery money supply velocity may be starting to rise and perhaps most importantly for 2014, the Treasury yield curve has steepened significantly in the past year. The Fed may be taking its punch bowl away just as laissez-faire policy officials are mixing a new batch. Indeed, while many may consider it absurd, is it possible monetary policy, in its entirety, is actually more accommodative today despite Fed tapering than at any time since the Fed worked to end the recession in 2009? The yield curve (shown in Chart 3) is a great example of a major monetary force controlled mostly by bond vigilantes which, until recently, has mostly been restrictive in this recovery. Between early-2010 and late-2012, the yield curve often flattened. The resulting contractionary force probably contributed (if not dominated) the frequent recovery swoons and stock market corrections which occurred during this period. Indeed, in line with the flattening yield curve movements shown in Chart 3, the stock market suffered almost a 16% correction in 2010, almost a 20% correction in 2011, and almost a 10% correction in 2012. While these economic
swoons and stock market corrections may be due to changes in the Feds QE program as many believe, they may also be more related to severe yield curve flattenings invoked by bond vigilantes. In this manner, what is more important for the economy and the stock market today? The fact the Fed has begun to slow its QE program or the fact the yield curve has steepened by more and for longer than at any time since this recovery began in the summer of 2009? Overall, we believe monetary policy remains far more accommodative today (based on a holistic view of its many facets) than most appreciate. Combined with other positive forces supporting the economy (e.g., less restrictive fiscal tightening compared to 2013, stronger balance sheets, strong pent-up demands, high homebuyer affordability, an energy independence dividend, a record-low real U.S. dollar exchange rate, considerable corporate dry spending powder, global economic synchronization, and the highest consumer confidence in five years), we expect real GDP growth of about 3.5% in 2014. Despite a mild selloff at the start of this year, better-than-expected economic growth should eventually push the stock market to new highs. We would not be surprised if the S&P 500 reaches close to 2000 sometime this year. However, we also suspect, good news on the economy may eventually become bad news for the stock market. The first overheated fears of this recovery may ultimately result in a correction which perhaps returns the S&P 500 back to levels close to where it started 2014. That is, although this year might prove the best economic performance of the recovery, it may also produce a volatile and frustratingly flat stock market.
Chart 3: U.S. Treasury yield curve 10-year Treasury bond yield less 3-month Treasury bill yield
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