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Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Time', by Carroll QuigleyTRAGEDY AND HOPE Chapters I-IVby Dr. Carroll QuigleyISBN 0913022-14-4CONTENTSI. INTRODUCTION: WESTERN CIVILIZATION IN ITS WORLD SETTINGII. WESTERN CIVILIZATION TO 1914III. THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE TO 1917IV. THE BUFFER FRINGEV. THE FIRST WORLD WARVI. THE VERSAILLES SYSTEM AND RETURN TO NORMALCY 1919-1929VII. FINANCE, COMMERCIAL POLICY AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY 1897-1947VIII. INTERNATIONAL SOCIALISM AND THE SOVIET CHALLENGEIX. GERMANY FROM KAISER TO HITLER 1913-1945X. BRITAIN: THE BACKGROUND TO APPEASEMENT 1900-1939XI. CHANGING ECONOMIC PATTERNSXII. THE POLICY OF APPEASEMENT 1931-1936XIII. THE DISRUPTION OF EUROPEXIV. WORLD WAR II: THE TIDE OF AGGRESSION 1939-1941XV. WORLD WAR II: THE EBB OF AGGRESSION 1941-1945XVI. THE NEW AGEXVII. NUCLEAR RIVALRY AND COLD WAR, AMERICAN NUCLEAR SUPERIORITY 1950-1957XVIII. NUCLEAR RIVALRY AND COLD WAR, RACE FOR THE H-BOMB 1950-1957XIX. THE NEW ERAXX. TRAGEDY AND HOPE: THE FUTURE IN PERSPECTIVECONTENTSI. INTRODUCTION: WESTERN CIVILIZATION IN ITS WORLD SETTINGII. WESTERN CIVILIZATION TO 1914III. THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE TO 1917IV. THE BUFFER FRINGEBack coverTRAGEDY AND HOPE is a lively, informed and always readable viewof our not quite One World of today, seen in historical perspective.Quigley has already shown his command of the kind of historicalperspective seen in the a world like that of Toynbee and Spengler; butunlike them he does not so much concern himself with projections froma distant past to a distant future as he does with what must interestus all much more closely - our own future and that of our immediatedescendants. He uses the insights, but in full awareness of thelimitations of our modern social sciences, and especially those ofeconomics, sociology, and psychology. Not all readers will agree withwhat he sees ahead of us in the near future, nor with what he thinkswe should do about it. But all will find this provocative andsometimes provoking book a stimulus to profitable reflection.David BrintonInside coverTRAGEDY AND HOPE shows the years 1895-1950 as a period oftransition from the world dominated by Europe in the nineteenthcentury to the world of three blocs in the twentieth century. Withclarity, perspective and cumulative impact, Professor Quigley examinesthe nature of that transition through two world wars and a worldwideeconomic depression. As an interpretative historian, he tries to show
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each event in the full complexity of its historical context. Theresult is a unique work, notable in several ways. It gives a pictureof the world in terms of the influence of different cultures andoutlooks upon each other; it shows, more completely than in anysimilar work, the influence of science and technology on human life;and it explains, with unprecedented clarity, how the intricatefinancial and commercial patterns of the West prior to 1914 influencedthe development of today's world.Carroll Quigley, professor of history at the Foreign ServiceSchool of Georgetown University, formerly taught at Princeton and atHarvard. He has done research in the archives of France, Italy andEngland, and is the author of the widely praised "Evolution ofCivilizations." A member of the editorial board of the monthly CurrentHistory, he is a frequent lecturer and consultant for public and semi-public agencies. He is a member of the American Association for theAdvancement of Science, the American Anthropological Association, andthe American Economic Association, as well as various historicalassociations. He has been lecturer on Russian history at theIndustrial College of the Armed Forces since 1951 and on Africa at theBrookings Institution since 1961, and has lectured at many other otherplaces including the U.S. Naval Weapons Laboratory, the ForeignService Institute of the State Department, and the Naval College atNorfolk, Virginia. In 1958, he was a consultant to the CongressionalSelect Committee which set up the present national space agency. Hewas collaborator in history to the Smithsonian Institution after 1957,in connection with the establishment of its new Museum of History andTechnology. In the summer of 1964 he went to the Navy Post-GraduateSchool, Monterey, California, as a consultant to project Seabed, whichtried to visualize what American weapons systems would be like intwelve years.CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION: WESTERN CIVILIZATION IN ITS WORLD SETTINGPage 3Each civilization is born in some inexplicable fashion and, aftera slow start, enters a period of vigorous expansion, increasing itssize and power, both internally and at the expense of its neighbors,until gradually a crisis of organization appears... It becomesstabilized and eventually stagnant. After a Golden Age of peace andprosperity, internal crises again arise. At this point, there appearsfor the first time, a moral and physical weakness.Page 5The passage from the Age of Expansion to the Age of Conflict isthe most complex, most interesting and most critical of all periods ofthe life cycle of a civilization. It is marked by four chiefcharacteristics: it is a period:a) of declining rate of expansion;b) of growing tensions and class conflicts;c) of increasingly frequent and violent imperialist wars;d) of growing irrationality.Page 8When we consider the untold numbers of other societies, simplerthan civilizations, which Western Civilization has destroyed or is nowdestroying, the full frightening power of Western Civilization becomesobvious.This shift from an Age of Conflict to an Age of Expansion ismarked by a resumption of the investment of capital and theaccumulation of capital on a large scale.In the new Western civilization, a small number of men, equippedand trained to fight, received dues and services from the overwhelming
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majority of men who were expected to till the soil. From thisinequitable but effective defensive system emerged an inequitabledistribution of political power and, in turn, an inequitabledistribution of the social economic income. This, in time, resulted inan accumulation of capital, which, by giving rise to demand for luxurygoods of remote origin, began to shift the whole economic emphasis ofthe society from its earlier organization in self-sufficient agrarianunits to commercial interchange, economic specialization, and, abourgeois class.Page 9At the end of the first period of expansion of WesternCivilization covering the years 970-1270, the organization of societywas becoming a petrified collection of vested interests and enteredthe Age of Conflict from 1270-1420.In the new Age of Expansion, frequently called the period ofcommercial capitalism from 1440 to 1680, the real impetus to economicexpansion came from efforts to obtain profits by the interchange ofgoods, especially semi-luxury or luxury goods, over long distances. Intime, profits were sought by imposing restrictions on the productionor interchange of goods rather than by encouraging these activities.Page 10The social organization of this third Age of Expansion from 1770-1929 following upon the second Age of Conflict of 1690-1815 might becalled "industrial capitalism." In the last of the nineteenth century,it began to become a structure of vested interests to which we mightgive the name "monopoly capitalism."We shall undoubtedly get a Universal Empire in which the UnitedStates will rule most of the Western Civilization. This will befollowed, as in other civilizations, by a period of decay andultimately, as the civilizations grows weaker, by invasions and thetotal destruction of Western culture.EUROPE'S SHIFT TO THE TWENTIETH CENTURYPage 24The belief in the innate goodness of man had its roots in theeighteenth century when it appeared to many that man was born good andfree but was everywhere distorted, corrupted, and enslaved by badinstitutions and conventions. As Rousseau said, "Man is born free yeteverywhere he is in chains."Obviously, if man is is innately good and needs but to be freedfrom social restrictions, he is capable of tremendous achievements inthis world of time, and does not need to postpone his hopes ofpersonal salvation into eternity.Page 25To the nineteenth century mind, evil, or sin, was a negativeconception. It merely indicated a lack or, at most, a distortion ofgood. Any idea of sin or evil as a malignant force opposed to good,and capable of existing by its own nature, was completely lacking inthe typical nineteenth century mind. The only evil was frustration andthe only sin, repression.Just as the negative idea of the nature of evil flowed from thebelief that human nature was good, so the idea of liberalism flowedfrom the belief that society was bad. For, if society was bad,thestate,which was the organized coercive power of society, was doublybad, and if man was good, he should be freed, above all, from thecoercive power of the state."No government in business" was commonly called "laissez faire"and would have left society with little power beyond that required toprevent the strong from physically oppressing the weak.This strange, and unexamined, belief held that there reallyexisted, in the long run, a "community of interests" between the
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