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Thayer South China Sea: Who Will Flinch First?

Thayer South China Sea: Who Will Flinch First?

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Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer
An analysis of China's use of "legal warfare" to intimidate its rivals in the South China Sea.
An analysis of China's use of "legal warfare" to intimidate its rivals in the South China Sea.

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Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Feb 19, 2014
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05/03/2014

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Background Brief South China Sea: Who Will Flinch First? Carlyle A. Thayer January 25, 2014
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󰁗󰁥 󰁡󰁲󰁥 󰁰󰁲󰁥󰁰󰁡󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁡 󰁲󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰁯󰁮 󰁨󰁯󰁷 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡'󰁳 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹 󰁴󰁯󰁷󰁡󰁲󰁤󰁳 󰁴󰁲󰁨󰁥 󰁓󰁯󰁵󰁴󰁨 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁓󰁥󰁡 󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁰󰁡󰁲󰁥󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁡 󰁧󰁡󰁭󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁣󰁨󰁩󰁣󰁫󰁥󰁮󰀭󰀭󰁤󰁡󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁲󰁩󰁶󰁡󰁬󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁦󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁨 󰁦󰁩󰁲󰁳󰁴. 󰁉󰁴'󰁳 󰁡󰁮 󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁬󰁯󰁧󰁹 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁨󰁡󰁳 󰁢󰁥󰁥󰁮 󰁷󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁬󰁹 󰁵󰁳󰁥󰁤. 󰁗󰁥 󰁲󰁥󰁱󰁵󰁥󰁳󰁴 󰁹󰁯󰁵󰁲 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁯󰁦 󰁴󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁬󰁯󰁧󰁹 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁨󰁯󰁷 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁕󰁓 󰁣󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤/󰁳󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁮󰁤 󰁴󰁯 󰁴󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹. 1.) 󰁓󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁡󰁬 󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳 󰁩󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁬󰁡󰁳󰁴 󰁦󰁥󰁷 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁨󰁳 (󰁕󰁓󰁓
󰁃󰁯󰁷󰁰󰁥󰁮󰁳
, 󰁤󰁥󰁣󰁬󰁡󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁯󰁦 A󰁩󰁲 󰁄󰁥󰁦󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁉󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁩󰁦󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁚󰁯󰁮󰁥 󰁛A󰁄󰁉󰁚󰁝, 󰁈󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁮 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁥'󰁳 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁯󰁦 󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁲󰁯󰁬 󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁲 󰁓󰁯󰁵󰁴󰁨 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁓󰁥󰁡 󰁦󰁩󰁳󰁨󰁥󰁲󰁩󰁥󰁳) 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁳󰁨󰁯󰁷󰁮 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁭󰁡󰁫󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁯󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁶󰁥 󰁭󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁳 󰁴󰁯󰁷󰁡󰁲󰁤 󰁩󰁴󰁳 󰁮󰁥󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁢󰁯󰁲󰁳. 󰁗󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁩󰁳 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁵󰁮󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁬󰁹󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹 󰁨󰁥󰁲󰁥? 󰁉󰁳 󰁩󰁴 󰁷󰁯󰁲󰁫󰁩󰁮󰁧?
 
A󰁎󰁓󰁗󰁅󰁒: 󰁔󰁨󰁥 󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁳󰁴 󰁥󰁸󰁡󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁯󰁦 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳󰁥 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁮󰁥󰁳󰁳 󰁡󰁲󰁥 󰁰󰁡󰁲󰁴 󰁯󰁦 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡'󰁳 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹 󰁯󰁦 "󰁬󰁥󰁧󰁡󰁬 󰁷󰁡󰁲󰁦󰁡󰁲󰁥". 󰁔󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁴󰁥󰁲󰁭 󰁩󰁳 󰁵󰁳󰁥󰁤 󰁢󰁹 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳󰁥 󰁤󰁥󰁦󰁥󰁮󰁳󰁥 󰁰󰁬󰁡󰁮󰁮󰁥󰁲󰁳. 󰁉󰁴 󰁲󰁥󰁦󰁥󰁲󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁥󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳󰁥 󰁤󰁯󰁭󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁩󰁣 󰁬󰁥󰁧󰁩󰁳󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁡󰁳 󰁡 󰁪󰁵󰁳󰁴󰁩󰁦󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁦󰁯󰁲 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁩󰁴󰁳 󰁳󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁩󰁧󰁮󰁴󰁹 󰁣󰁬󰁡󰁩󰁭󰁳. 󰁉󰁴 󰁩󰁳 󰁡󰁮 󰁡󰁴󰁴󰁥󰁭󰁰󰁴 󰁴󰁯 󰁤󰁥󰁦󰁬󰁥󰁣󰁴 󰁣󰁲󰁩󰁴󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁳󰁭 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁩󰁳 󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁡󰁧󰁧󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁹. 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁭󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁬󰁹 󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁮󰁤󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁥󰁩󰁧󰁮 󰁣󰁲󰁩󰁴󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁳󰁭 󰁢󰁹 󰁡󰁲󰁧󰁵󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁩󰁴󰁳 󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁲󰁥 󰁬󰁥󰁧󰁡󰁬. 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳󰁥 󰁤󰁯󰁭󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁩󰁣 󰁬󰁡󰁷󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁲󰁥󰁧󰁵󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁲󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁮 󰁥󰁮󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥󰁤 󰁢󰁹 󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁣󰁩󰁶󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁡󰁮 󰁬󰁡󰁷 󰁥󰁮󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁩󰁥󰁳, 󰁮󰁯󰁷 󰁲󰁥󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁵󰁰󰁥󰁤 󰁩󰁮󰁴󰁯 󰁡 󰁮󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁬 󰁃󰁯󰁡󰁳󰁴 󰁇󰁵󰁡󰁲󰁤. 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡'󰁳 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹 󰁷󰁯󰁲󰁫󰁳 󰁢󰁥󰁳󰁴 󰁡󰁧󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳󰁴 󰁷󰁥󰁡󰁫 󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁳 󰁷󰁨󰁯 󰁤󰁯 󰁮󰁯󰁴 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁭󰁥󰁡󰁮󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁮󰁤. 󰁉󰁴 󰁰󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳 󰁡󰁮 󰁡󰁳󰁹󰁭󰁭󰁥󰁴󰁲󰁩󰁣 󰁣󰁨󰁡󰁬󰁬󰁥󰁮󰁧󰁥 󰁴󰁯 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁕󰁓 󰁢󰁥󰁣󰁡󰁵󰁳󰁥 󰁩󰁦 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁕󰁓 󰁎󰁡󰁶󰁹 󰁵󰁳󰁥󰁳 󰁷󰁡󰁲󰁳󰁨󰁩󰁰󰁳 󰁩󰁴 󰁷󰁩󰁬󰁬 󰁢󰁥 󰁳󰁥󰁥󰁮 󰁡󰁳 󰁥󰁳󰁣󰁡󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁤󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁵󰁴󰁥.
 
󰁅󰁶󰁥󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁧󰁨 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁷󰁡󰁳 󰁣󰁨󰁡󰁬󰁬󰁥󰁮󰁧󰁥󰁤 󰁢󰁹 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁕󰁓, 󰁊󰁡󰁰󰁡󰁮 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁓󰁯󰁵󰁴󰁨 󰁋󰁯󰁲󰁥󰁡 󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁲 󰁩󰁴󰁳 A󰁄󰁉󰁚 󰁷󰁨󰁥󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁹 󰁦󰁬󰁥󰁷 󰁡󰁩󰁲󰁣󰁲󰁡󰁦󰁴 󰁴󰁨󰁲󰁯󰁵󰁧󰁨 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁺󰁯󰁮󰁥, 󰁭󰁯󰁳󰁴 󰁮󰁯󰁴󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁹 B󰀭52 󰁢󰁯󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲󰁳, 󰁴󰁨󰁥 A󰁄󰁉󰁚 󰁲󰁥󰁭󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳 󰁩󰁮 󰁰󰁬󰁡󰁣󰁥. 󰁉󰁦 󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁲󰁥 󰁩󰁳 󰁡󰁮 󰁡󰁥󰁲󰁩󰁡󰁬 󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁲󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳󰁥 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁰󰁡󰁧󰁡󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁳󰁴󰁳 󰁷󰁩󰁬󰁬 󰁡󰁲󰁧󰁵󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁷󰁡󰁳 󰁪󰁵󰁳󰁴󰁩󰁦󰁩󰁥󰁤 󰁩󰁮 󰁥󰁮󰁦󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁩󰁴󰁳 󰁬󰁡󰁷󰁳.
 
2.) 󰁉󰁴 󰁨󰁡󰁳 󰁢󰁥󰁥󰁮 󰁳󰁡󰁩󰁤 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁯󰁮󰁥 󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁯󰁦 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡'󰁳 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹 󰁩󰁳 󰁴󰁯 󰁰󰁵󰁳󰁨 󰁩󰁴󰁳 󰁲󰁩󰁶󰁡󰁬󰁳 (󰁊󰁡󰁰󰁡󰁮, 󰁐󰁨󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁰󰁰󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳, 󰁖󰁩󰁥󰁴󰁮󰁡󰁭, 󰁕󰁓) 󰁵󰁮󰁴󰁩󰁬 󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁹 󰁨󰁡󰁶󰁥 󰁮󰁯 󰁣󰁨󰁯󰁩󰁣󰁥 󰁢󰁵󰁴 󰁴󰁯 󰁷󰁩󰁴󰁨󰁤󰁲󰁡󰁷, 󰁯󰁲 󰁥󰁳󰁣󰁡󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁥, 󰁲󰁩󰁳󰁫󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁩󰁣󰁴. 󰁔󰁯 󰁷󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁥󰁸󰁴󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁳 󰁴󰁨󰁩󰁳 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹 󰁢󰁥󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁵󰁳󰁥󰁤 󰁡󰁧󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳󰁴 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁕󰁓? 󰁗󰁨󰁡󰁴, 󰁩󰁮 󰁹󰁯󰁵󰁲 󰁶󰁩󰁥󰁷, 󰁷󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁢󰁥 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁲󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴 󰁕󰁓 󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁥?
 
A󰁎󰁓󰁗󰁅󰁒: 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡'󰁳 󰁨󰁡󰁳 󰁡 󰁬󰁯󰁮󰁧󰀭󰁴󰁥󰁲󰁭 󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁧󰁹 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁷󰁡󰁳 󰁯󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁣󰁡󰁬󰁬󰁥󰁤 "󰁣󰁲󰁥󰁥󰁰󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁡󰁳󰁳󰁥󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁮󰁥󰁳󰁳" 󰁯󰁲 "󰁴󰁡󰁬󰁫 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁴󰁡󰁫󰁥" 󰁢󰁹 󰁲󰁥󰁧󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁬 󰁳󰁥󰁣󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁬󰁹󰁳󰁴󰁳. 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡 󰁰󰁵󰁴󰁳 󰁵󰁮󰁲󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁰󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁵󰁲󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁐󰁨󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁰󰁰󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁳 󰁩󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁥󰁸󰁰󰁥󰁣󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁳󰁯󰁭󰁥 󰁦󰁵󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁥 󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁴󰀭A󰁱󰁵󰁩󰁮󰁯 A󰁤󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁩󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁷󰁩󰁬󰁬 󰁪󰁵󰁳󰁴 󰁡󰁣󰁱󰁵󰁩󰁥󰁳󰁣󰁥 󰁴󰁯 󰁃󰁨󰁩󰁮󰁡'󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁮󰁥󰁸󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁯󰁦 󰁓󰁣󰁡󰁲󰁢󰁯󰁲󰁯󰁵󰁧󰁨 󰁓󰁨󰁯󰁡󰁬 󰁡󰁮󰁤
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