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Background Brief Cambodia: A Tale of Two Kings Carlyle A. Thayer February 12, 2014

[client name deleted] We request your assessment of Prime Minister Hun Sen and King Norodom Sihamoni. 1 - What has Hun Sen achieved for Cambodia during his rule? Hun Sen has held high office in Cambodia since 1979. In the period from 1979-93 he presided over a period of stabilization and development following the Vietnamese invasion that toppled the Khmer Rouge regime from power. He led Cambodia into negotiations with the non-communist resistance FUNCINPEC and the KPNLF and agreed to lett the United Nations take charge of the transition period up until national elections in May 1993 and the adoption of a new constitution. 2 Is there anything controversial in Hun Sens life? In the mid to late 1980s Hun Sen was widely believed to have condoned the use of coercion even torture against his political opponents. In 1997 forces under his command murdered members of FUNCINPEC that was in coalition with the Cambodian Peoples Party. Hun Sen in effect undermined the UNs efforts to create a liberal democracy in Cambodia. Hun Sen uses the ability to humiliate his opponents to undermine their appeal to the ordinary citizen. He strips National Assembly deputies of their immunity and uses the courts to punish them. Sam Rainsy is the prime example. 3 - How has Hun Sen stayed in power for so long, nearly three decades as of now? What explains his longevity? From 1979 until the present the Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP) has ruled at grassroots level. The CPP has been triumphant at each national commune election held. The ordinary Cambodian has learned to acquiesce in the CPPs hold on power at local level. Local officials can hand out rewards or mete out punishment. Hun Sen has also created special security units, such as his personal bodyguard, to protect his rule. Hun Sen has remained in power for so long because he has established patron-client networks within the government and military, including the appointment of his sons to important positions. And Hun Sen has presided over a period of stabilization and development over the

2 last three decaded. The lives of ordinary Cambodians have improved under his tutelage. Hun Sen can also point to support from the international community since 1998, the year he began to amass ever larger electoral majorities. 4 - How do you assess Hun Sen as a Cambodian leader? I view Hun Sen as a leader who should step down earlier than later to preserve his legacy. It is obvious that the last national elections saw a huge drop in support for the CPP. Hun Sen is capable of undertaking political reform but only at the margins. 5. What is Chinas relationship with Hun Sen? Hun Sen has been able to act defiantly in the face of mass opposition because of Chinese backing. Chinese funds from business investments provide the cash used to keep his patron-client network in working order. But China appears to be repositioning itself as a hedge against the risk of Hun Sen losing power. This is a dangerous time. Once Hun Sens clients fear that their patron can no longer provide them with rewards for their loyalty they will turn elsewhere. For King Sihamoni: 1 - What kind of a King is Sihamoni? Sihamoni is king who reigns but does not rule. He is a purely symbolic king with no substantive authority. He is and will be a compliant king to whichever political party is in power. 2 - Has he achieved anything for the country? King Sihamoni has kept the institution of the monarchy functioning and thereby lends a degree of legitimacy to the present political system. This is useful in resolving political crises like granting Sam Rainsy an amnesty so he can return from exile and take part in national politics. 3 - Is there anything controversial in Sihamonis life? King Sihamoni has lived most of his life outside Cambodia. And he has never married. This undermines, to a certain extent, his role as monarch. 4 - Is Sihamoni comfortable in his role as king? By all accounts Sihamoni preferred to remain in France rather than return to Cambodia after his father abdicated. He has acted properly in the role of monarch and has grown in his role as king. He is able to indulge his passion for the arts, and classical dancing, with his role as king. 5 - Is Sihamoni a popular king like his father late King Norodom Sihanouk? King Sihanouk launched the Royal Crusade for independence in 1953 and was one of the few nationalist leaders in Southeast Asia to ellipse support for left wing and/or communist movements. Prince/King Sihanouk used his persona to defend Cambodias sovereignty against foreign interference (although his overlooking of Vietnamese communist sanctuaries proved his undoing). King Norodom Sihanouk would have been a hard act to follow for any of his sons. King Sihamoni attracts support from the general public because of its perception of the role of the

3 monarchy in contemporary Cambodia. Sihamoni attracts support because the monarchy is viewed a legitimate institution. He is not unpopular. But Sihamoni cannot compete with the legacy of his father who spent decades as King, Prince and King and in that role was involved in every important political event in Cambodia from gaining independence to leading the resistance against Vietnamese intervention.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: A Tale of Two Kings, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 12, 2014. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.