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Fermi Paradox and global catastrophes
 The main ways of solving the Fermi Paradox are:1) They are already here (at least in the form of their signals)2) They do not disseminate in the universe, do not leave traces, and not sendsignals. That is, they do not start a shock wave of intelligence.3) The civilizations are extremely rare.Additional way of thinking is 4): we are unique civilization because of observationselectionAll of them have a sad outlook for global risk:In the first case, we are under threat of conflict with superior aliens.1A) If they are already here, we can do something that will encourage them todestroy us, or restrict us. For example, turn off the simulation. Or start the programof probes-berserkers. This probes cold be nanobots. In fact it could be somethinglike “Space gray goo” with low intelligence but very wide spreading. It could evenbe in my room. The only goal of it could be to destroy other nanobots (like ourNanoshield would do). And so we will see it until we create our own nanobots.1b) If they open up our star system right now and, moreover, focused on totalcolonization of all systems, we are also will fight with them and are likely to lose.Not probable.1c) If a large portion of civilization is infected with SETI-virus and distributes signals,specially designed to infect naive civilizations - that is, encourage them to create acomputer with AI, aimed at the further replication by SETI channels. This is what Iwrite in the article Is SETI dangerous?http://www.proza.ru/texts/2008/04/12/55.html1d) By the means of METI signal we attract attention of dangerous civilization and itwill send to the solar system a beam of death (probably commonly known asgamma-ray burst). This scenario seems unlikely, since for the time until theyreceive the signal and have time to react, we have time to fly away from the solarsystem - if they are far away. And if they are close, it is not clear why they were nothere. However, this risk was intensely discussed, for example by D. Brin.2. They do not disseminate in space. This means that either:2a) Civilizations are very likely to destroy themselves in very early stages, before itcould start wave of robots replicators and we are not exception. This is reinforcedby the Doomsday argument – namely the fact that I'm discovering myself in ayoung civilization suggests that they are much more common than the old.However, based on the expected rate of development of nanotechnology andartificial intelligence, we can start a wave of replicators have in 10-20 years, andeven if we die then, this wave will continue to spread throughout the universe.Given the uneven development of civilizations, it is difficult to assume that none of them do not have time to launch a wave of replicators before their death. This ispossible only if we a) do not see an inevitable and universal threat looming directly
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