Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Reilly, F., K., Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, The Dryden Press,
Chicago, 1989.
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ALPHA, BETA
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BETA
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Rt = i + i Rmt
Rt
Rmt
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2%,
1%.
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i = ai + ei
i ai ei i.
. ALPHA
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Rt = ai + i Rmt + et
Rt
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Rmt
et
i. ()
ai
(ALPHA)
i
(BETA)
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Xt Xt 1
100
Xt 1
Xt
R Rm
t
Xt-1
R Rm
t-1
ALPHA BETA ,
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:
:
BETA =
[ ( R R)( Rm Rm) ]
t =1
( Rm Rm)
t =1
Rm Rm
ALPHA =R BETARm
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(R- )
Student-t
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100%,
.
:
( R R) e:
R square =
( R R)
2
t
2
2
t
Rm Rm
e = R
2
t
ALPHA R BETA R Rm
t
Student-t ,
ALPHA
.
. , Student-t
2
. :
t ALPHA =
t BETA =
ALPHA
ALPHA
Rm e
N( RmRm)
2
ALPHA =
BETA
BETA
BETA =
N( Rm Rm)
13
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Vasicek
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Blume Levy,
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i1 i
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Blume
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1955-61 i1 i (1948-54).
0.343+0.677
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1962-68 . (
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, i1 .
i2 . , i1
2.0 0.343+0.6772.0=1.697 2.0, i1 0.5
0.343+0.6770.5=0.682 0.5.
*
Blume
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Blume
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Merryll Lynch.
22
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Vasicek
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i2 =
i1
+
2
1
2
i1
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+ 2i 1
2
1
i1
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Bayes .
Bayes
Blume, .
Bayes ,
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23
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Blume.
4.
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2
1 m
Aj Pj
m j =1
m , Pj
MSE =
j Aj
j. , Pj
Aj
.
MSE ,
:
2
MSE = ( A P ) + ( 1 1) sP2 + ( 1rAP
) sA2
A P
2
2
, 1 P , sP
24
sA2 P A rA2P
P A.3
, {inefficiency}
MSE.
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Pj ,
MSE.. Blume
Levy
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MSE
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(
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27
Ri RF
i
Ri
RF
1%
( ),
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(R
RF ) i ,
( short, short).
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( Ri RF ) i ,
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1.
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2.
(R
RF ) i
C*. C*
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C*
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3. (C*)
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. Ci C*.
Ci
i .
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-
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(i=1),
(i=2), , (i=3)
. Ci
C*.
Ci C*,
Ci
Ci
Ci Ci.
Ci C*.
29
4. - C*
- C*, . ,
i Ci :
Ci =
m2
m2
e2j
( R R )
j
2
ej
i 2
j
2
1+ m 2
j =1 ej
j =1
,
. Ci
:
Ci =
iP ( RP RF )
i
iP
1%
RP
iP
RP .
30