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1

Reilly, F., K., Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, The Dryden Press,
Chicago, 1989.

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R = Pi Ri
i =1

Pi

i-

Ri
i-
.

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R
R= i
i =1 N
N

Ri

i-

N

,

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( R R)
=
N
N

Ri

i-

N

,

j =1


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N

2 = Pi ( Ri R)
j =1

Ri

i-

Pi

i-


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N

i =1

Rp = Xi Ri

Ri

i
,

p =

X + X X
i =1

2 2
i i

i =1 j =1
j i

ij

ij


i
j


.

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, ij ,
i j,
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. i

N , ,
(-1) , i j.
, (-1)
. , i j
j i,
(-1)/2 .
. , 100
4950 100

200 , 19900,
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ALPHA, BETA

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302,
, 602.
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BETA
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. BETA

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3.

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Rt = i + i Rmt

Rt

Rmt

10



,
. i
. i =2
2%,
1%.

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, .

, .

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i = ai + ei
i ai ei i.
. ALPHA

,
.

Rt = ai + i Rmt + et

Rt

11

Rmt

et

i. ()

ai

(ALPHA)

i
(BETA)
* .

.

Xt Xt 1
100
Xt 1

Xt

R Rm
t

Xt-1

R Rm

t-1
ALPHA BETA ,

.
:
:

BETA =

[ ( R R)( Rm Rm) ]
t =1

( Rm Rm)
t =1

Rm Rm

ALPHA =R BETARm

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12

,

.
(R- )
Student-t
.

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- -
- -
. ,
100%,
.
:

( R R) e:
R square =
( R R)
2

t
2

2
t

Rm Rm

e = R

2
t

ALPHA R BETA R Rm
t

Student-t ,
ALPHA
.
. , Student-t
2
. :
t ALPHA =

t BETA =

ALPHA

ALPHA

Rm e
N( RmRm)
2

ALPHA =

BETA

BETA

BETA =

N( Rm Rm)

13

14


- .

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Blume
Vasicek
.

15

1. -



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16

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Blume Levy.

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Blume

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Blume

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19

Blume Levy,
, Blume Vasicek..

2. Blume
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Blume,
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Blume
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Blume


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20

- .
:

i 2 = c0 + c1 i 1
i2 i
i1 i
.
c0+c1 * .
Blume
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Blume ,
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- ** .
*

Blume

i 2 = 03
. 43+ 06
. 77 i 1

i2 i

1955-61 i1 i (1948-54).
0.343+0.677
. Blume
1962-68 . (
) 1955-61.
, i1 .
i2 . , i1
2.0 0.343+0.6772.0=1.697 2.0, i1 0.5
0.343+0.6770.5=0.682 0.5.
*

Blume

1948-54 1955-61 1.02.

21

Blume

.

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*** .
3. Vasicek
.
Vasicek


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2.
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196268 1.02
. 0.343+0.6771.02.
1.033.
*

**

Blume 1.033

1.02.
2

Merryll Lynch.

22

. Vasicek
:

, ,
Vasicek

i.

2
1

.
i
2
i 1

. Vasicek
:

+
2
1

2
i1

i 1

2i 1
+
2
1

2
i1

.
,
, .
i :

i2 =

i1
+
2
1

2
i1

1+

+ 2i 1
2
1

i1



. Vasicek
Bayes .
Bayes
Blume, .
Bayes ,
,
.

.

23



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-- ,
Blume.
4.

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, MSE , :

2
1 m
Aj Pj

m j =1
m , Pj

MSE =

j Aj
j. , Pj

Aj
.
MSE ,

:
2
MSE = ( A P ) + ( 1 1) sP2 + ( 1rAP
) sA2
A P
2

2
, 1 P , sP

24

sA2 P A rA2P
P A.3
, {inefficiency}
MSE.

.

Pj ,
MSE.. Blume
Levy
. ,
MSE
Pj Aj.


-

Blume Vasicek. MSE

.

MSE, .

Mincer Zarnowitz (2).

25


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26

1.


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(
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27

Ri RF
i

Ri

RF

1%

( ),
.
, ( Ri RF ) i
,
. ,

(R

RF ) i ,

( short, short).

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,
( Ri RF ) i ,
. C*.

:
1.

.
2.

(R

RF ) i

C*. C*
.
.
C*

28

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2.
...
3. (C*)
, C* .


. C*

. C*

. Ci C*.
Ci
i .

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. Ci -
-

,
(i=1),
(i=2), , (i=3)
. Ci

C*.

Ci C*,
Ci
Ci
Ci Ci.
Ci C*.

29

4. - C*

- C*, . ,
i Ci :

Ci =

m2

m2

e2j

( R R )
j

2
ej

i 2
j
2
1+ m 2
j =1 ej
j =1


,
. Ci

:
Ci =

iP ( RP RF )
i

iP


1%

RP

iP


RP .

30

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