Grantland Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=AGDaOJAYHfo

Conventional Wisdom be Damned: The Math Behind Pulaski Academy's Offense

By Paul Dalen @Paul_Dalen on Nov 15 2013, 12:00p 19

There's sound math behind Pulaski Academy's commitment to never punting. But it takes a special kind of coach to deal with the criticism that accompanies a decision to buck conventional wisdom.
Have you seen this video about Pulaski Academy? Its a private school in Little Rock, AR with a coach who has a unique approach to offense. Kevin Kelley, Pulaskis coach never, ever punts, and he almost always attempts onside kicks after scoring. The numbers back up Kelleys conviction that his offense is correct. In fact, two numbers in particular stand behind it: 10-0. Thats Pulaskis record as of last weekend. Lets dig into some of the other numbers underwriting his never-punt approach to coaching.

When faced with a fourth down, there are four numbers that should influence the decision:
1. The offensive expected points that the current spot is worth. From the 1 to the 99-yard line, the expected points that a spot is worth ranges from about 0.5 points to six points. From this number, you have tosubtract the opponent's expected points for taking over on downs if the conversion is unsuccessful. 2. The expected probability of a successful 4th down conversion. 4th and 1 has a higher probability than 4th and 10, and this should factor into the decision. Numbers 3 and 4 are used to estimate the opponents field position if a decision to punt is made. 3. The average expected punt. This is pretty easy to calculate based on past performance. 4. The opponents expected punt return. Again, this is pretty easy to estimate based on past performance.

The basic formula is this: max of: ( P(conv) * exp pts ) - ( 1-P(conv) * exp pts ), or exp pts at spot after punt and return. It looks something like this:

In the example above, the fourth-down spot is the 50-yard line. The expected P(conv) is .50, the team's average punt (chosen for example purposes) is 40 yards and the opponent's average return is 10 yards. in this scenario, the expected point value of going

for it is 0.0 points, and the expected opponent point value of punting is minus-1.8 points. Zero is more than minus-1.8, so going for it is justified.

In this scenario, the fourth-down spot is the 35-yard line and the distance to go is more favorable, so the estimated P(conv) is 0.70. The average punt is 30 yards and the average opponent punt return is 20 yards. In this case, the expected points of going for it on fourth down is 1.7, and the expected opponent points after a punt is minus-1.9. That's an expected point swing of 3.6 points. Not bad.

One more example:

In this scenario the conventional wisdom is to always punt. The fourth-down spot is on the offense's own 20-yard line. The P(conv) is lower at 0.50, and the average punt and average returns are the same as the last example. In this case, the expected points is negative regardless of what choice is made. However, the expected points from going for it on fourth down are still greater than the expected opponent points after punting. Conventional wisdom is wrong. Kelley and the entire Pulaski Academy football team know it, and they're using it to win football games. If you want to play around with the decision tool I screen-shot, you candownload it from my dropbox. I don't think this kind of analysis would be a surprise to any decent coach. So, why do coaches "play it safe" (as if it weren't safer to make the choice to score more points)? The answer to that, I think, lies in the way that we view errors of commission versus errors of omission. Or in other words, a coach that makes a choice to punt the ball from the 20-yard line would be viewed as making sound decisions, whereas one that chooses to go for it on the 20-yard line is considered a risk-taker. If the decision to punt turns out to be the decision that gives the ball back and the opponent then scores a TD, then the decision to punt is hardly considered as part of the evaluation of the sequence of events. If the decision to go for it fails and the opponent scores a TD, then the decision will be second-guessed ad nauseum. The result of both decisions is the same, but one would be criticized much more harshly than the other.

Mark Driscoll says in his book Doctrine, They (biblical principles) require church leaders to use timely biblical methods that are changing depending on our culturePaul demonstrated this by not changing his doctrine or principles but often changing his methods, depending on his audience. (I Cor 9:19-23)

One of the constant challenges I have as a church leader is attempting to get other leaders to see the same biblical truths through a different lens and utilize different methods. That is why I resonate so much with Pulaski Academy head coach Kevin Kelley. As shown in the video above, Coach Kelley believes you should never punt or attempt field goals. He also believes in only doing onside kicks. Though HIGHLY unconventional, this school located in Little Rock, AR has won three state championships in the last 10 years. As I watched the video above, I gleaned 15 Reasons I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before And Neither Should You. Lets face facts. You cannot argue with Coach Kelleys results. 1. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Have A Different Philosophy Leadership is about taking people to a place they currently are not. Leaders move their teams from Point A to Point B. Therefore, as a leader I must always be going new places, doing new things and thinking differently. Coach Kelley says, It is a philosophy and a strategy. 2. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because The Current Situation Calls For Something Different Necessity is the mother of invention. Leaders often discover more effective methods simply because they have to. The current situation demands it. Coach Kelley noted, It has not been by design. 3. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Am Continually Learning Smart leaders are always learning new truths from different disciplines. Coach Kelley learned from the academic community. I saw a 15-minute video of a Harvard professor, he said. 4. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because Ive Done My Research The Harvard professor studied over 2,000 games over 3-year period. 5. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Asked Why Coach Kelley did something most leaders are afraid to do. He asked the right question. He asked why. He pointed out, I started asking and had our coaches asking Why about everything in our program. 6. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because Of Peer Pressure Coach Kelley finally acknowledged, Why are we really punting? Because everyone else does on 4th down.

7. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because The Risk Is Not All That Great After studying the numbers, Coach Kelley discovered the risk of failure for unconventional thinking is almost the same as conventional thinking. If it is 4th and 7 on your own 5 yard-line and you fail to make a first down, the opposing team will get a touchdown 92% of the time. If you punt and the opposing team gets the ball on your 40 yard-line, they will still score a touchdown 77% of the time. Therefore, punting almost assures the other team points. However, Pulaski has a 50% 4th down conversion rate to offset the 15% risk. 8. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because Ive Had To Be Resourceful Before - Creativity and resourcefulness are often birthed in humble beginnings. Coach Kelley grew up in such impoverished conditions they sometimes lacked food. He said, When one of your basic needs in life gets taken away from you, you learn to get really creative. Give me scrappy, smart and somewhat desperate leaders and teammates any day of the week. 9. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Think Differently Than Others Leaders are not average individuals. They think differently. Stop denying it. Embrace it. Coach Kelley said, I started out as an accountant. I didnt read football booksthat makes you think a little bit differently 10. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Can Create Opportunity For Others While Limiting Mistakes - Effective leaders create opportunity for those they serve. Coach Kelley says, You can tell who wins the game 75% of the time just by looking at turnoversI count onside kicks as turnovers. 11. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Want To Make A Positive Change Leaders make a difference. Regular kick-offs resulted in the opposing team getting the ball on their own 33 yard line. Failed onside kicks resulted in the opposing team getting the ball on their own 47 yard line. For a 14-yard risk, Pulaski recovered the ball 20% of the time. One onside kick is a game changer, says Coach Kelly. 12. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because Im Looking For An Advantage The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is just a little extra. Coach Kelley says, All were doing is getting a 3% advantage by onside kicking, a 2% advantage by not punting on this down, all those add up. Maybe we got a 15% better chance of winning than if we would have played it straight up. 13. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because Our Church Loves Doing It Differently Leaders understand people thrive in creative environments. We love going to churches where you dont know what God is going to do next. Coach Kelley proudly says, Kids love it. They just love my kind of football. 14. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Will Not Be Reduced To A Level Of Mediocrity - People will attempt to thwart creativity simply because they do not

understand it or it moves them out of there comfort zone. Therefore, rather than rising to your level, they will attempt to lower you to theirs. Do not be reduced to a level of mediocrity. Coach Kelley admits, The teams we beat call it gadgety. They get that from a style of football thats different. 15. I Dont Need To Do It The Way It Has Always Been Done Before Because I Want To Be More Successful In conclusion, Coach Kelley reminds all leaders, There are those kind of people who want to be different because they just want to be different. And there are those kind of people who want to be different because theyre looking for something to help them be more successful. I want to be more successful. Do you? Which of the 15 lessons above challenged you the most? Encouraged by this post? You just might want to . .