Issue 225, 23 May - 06 Jun 07
Feature Article
Hangover will follow global binge
Date: 4 Jun 07
The world has changed dramatically in the past 20 years and it has important implications for yourshare portfolio.
‘In a world where globalization is acknowledged in every international speech given by acentral bank official the concept seems to disappear immediately they sit down around the policy making table of their own countries … This is what makes the current state of financial markets possibly the most dangerous inhistory.’
– Dr Jim Walker:
Apocalypse Now? An Unnatural Tale
, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, 1st Quarter 2007.The most dangerous state of financial markets in history? Surely not, this is the age of stability and globalprosperity, right? Well, globalisation has changed the world and mostly for the better. But included with its manybenefits are some new, and potentially very dangerous risks. And, whether you like it or not, those risks are veryrelevant to you.Globalisation is one of those words for which everyone seems to have a different definition. If you’re aleft-leaning arts student protesting at the 1999 World Trade Organisation meeting in Seattle, it probably meansthe rape and pillage of third-world countries by those greedy capitalist western corporations. If you’re a well-paidexecutive in a greedy capitalist corporation, it probably means the ability to sell your product to the rest of theworld.For our purposes, though, it means the integration of a large number of national economies into one globalmarket for goods, services, labour and capital. And we won’t get involved in the arguments about its merits orotherwise. It’s happening, and we’ll stick to working out what it means for you and your portfolio. In this respect,there are two important areas we need to examine: the direct effect of globalisation on the companies you own,and its effects on financial markets and investor psychology.
Aussie companies in a global economy
Firstly, let’s take a look at the aspect that’s in our faces every day. The first thing you probably think of when youhear of globalisation is your local $2 shop, chock-full of goods manufactured in China and Vietnam. But theimpact of globalisation on the companies you own goes much further than imports and exports.Think about a bull bar sold by
ARB Corporation
in the US. Iron ore gets dug out of the ground in Australia andsold to a Chinese corporation which turns it into steel. That steel is then sent to ARB’s manufacturing facility inThailand, where it’s turned into an Aussie designed bull bar. It’s then shipped, on a Norwegian freighter, to theUS, where it’s sold, with the proceeds being converted into Australian dollars and sent back here.It’s a mind-boggling sequence of events, but the concept is really quite simple – find the most efficient place inthe world for each stage of the production cycle and send that part of your job there. With instantcommunications to almost anywhere on the planet, the economic benefits are vast. But it’s also not hard to thinkof a few ways that things could go wrong.The amount of profit an ARB shareholder ends up with depends on Australian mining policies, Chinese steelprices, the cost of labour in Thailand, shipping rates, political coups, import tariffs and exchange rates, just toname a few of the risks. A disaster in any one of these areas, all of which are outside management’s control,could knock your returns for six.While that gives you a lot more to think about, globalisation has proceeded at such a pace because thesebusiness risks are more than offset by the benefits. At this point in time, however, the same can’t be said of theother area that globalisation has revolutionised.
Monetary policy set loose
The side of the equation Dr Walker (of our opening quote) is fretting about is the international market for money– global capital markets. We share his concerns.Most central banks around the world use interest rates as their monetary policy of choice. The idea is that by
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