Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Craig Haskins
Manager: Strategic Information
Context
Driver – population
Scenarios
Conclusion
Introduction
4 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
3 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
T o ta l - m id d le m ig r a tio n
1 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0 T o ta l - h ig h m ig r a t io n
T o ta l - lo w m ig r a tio n
1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0
5 0 0 ,0 0 0
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Population Growth
Implications
Ageing population requires appropriate social & healthcare facilities
Mechanisms must be found to engage youth through sport, recreation &
employment
Socio-Economic conditions
Reflected in:
Environment
Spatial and Regional Planning
Human and Social Development
Economy
Integrated Human Settlements
Transport
Crime
ENVIRONMENT
Emerging crisis around regional landfill site and high levels of waste
(amount of waste disposed per capita increasing at alarming rate -
60% increase from 1999 to 2005)
ENVIRONMENT
A n n u a l w a s t e d is p o s e d p e r c a p it a
800
702
700
640
400
300
200
100
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
SPATIAL & REGIONAL PLANNING
38%
40%
35% 32%
30%
25%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1996 2001 2005
Human & Social Development
3 5 .0 %
3 0 .0 % 3 0 .2 %
2 9 .5 %
2 7 .9 %
2 6 .5 %
2 5 .0 % 2 4 .5 % 2 4 .8 %
2 2 .8 % 2 2 .4 %
2 0 .0 %
16 . 0 %
15 . 0 % 15 . 4 % 15 . 7 %
14 . 2 %
12 . 4 % 13 . 1%
10 . 0 % 10 . 4 %
8 .7 % 8 .6 %
7 .6 % 7 . 1%
6 .3 %
5 .0 % 5 .2 %
4 .3 %
2 .4 % 3 . 1%
1. 4 % 1. 2 % 1. 7 %
0 .8 %
0 .0 %
19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Human & Social Development:
implications
35 1 4 0 .0
112
30 1 0 2 .6 1 0 6 .4 1 2 0 .0
9 8 .6
9 4 .7
25 9 0 .6 1 0 0 .0
8 2 .7 8 6 .3
8 2 .6
2 3 .8 2 3 .4
20 1 9 .7 8 0 .0
% unem poym ent
G G P ( R b illio n s )
18 1 9 .8
15 6 0 .0
1 6 .5
15
10 1 3 .3 4 0 .0
5 2 0 .0
0 0 .0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
INTEGRATED HUMAN
SETTLEMENTS
350000 350000
300000 300000
2 4 50 0 0 2 6 50 0 0
240000 2 6 50 0 0
250000 250000
H o u s in g b a c k lo g ( n o . o f
2 4 50 0 0 2 4 50 0 0
d w e llin g u n its )
2 2 10 0 0
200000 200000
h o u s in g d e liv e r y
150000 15 0 0 0 0 150000
100000 100000
50000 50000
9 72 9
4 110 18 0 8 3469
0 0
19 9 8 19 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10
Integrated Human Settlements
120000
96951 98031
100000
94972
83684
80000
72140
60000
59854
R2 = 0.9815
40000
28300
20000
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
TRANSPORT
Life inconvenient & expensive for those who cannot afford a car .
100
86
77
80
60
55
60
40
20
0
2 0 0 1 /2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 /2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 /2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 /2 0 0 5
Crime
150 13 5
12 5 12 4
118
125
100
75
50
25
0
2 0 0 1 /2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 /2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 /2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 /2 0 0 5
Crime
Drug-related crime
D r u g r e la t e d c r im e p e r 1 0 0 0 0 0
482
500
400
3 14
300
241 232
200
100
0
2 0 0 1 /2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 /2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 /2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 /2 0 0 5
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005
Resource flows
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005
The ideas and concepts presented in the MSDF are as relevant today
as they were when it was drafted. More importantly, the development
challenges the region 15 years ago seem as apt today as they were
then. ,
In 2006, even a cursory glance at Cape Town suggests that not much
has changed in terms of development patterns from 15 years ago.
Whilst the plan above looks impressive, many of the projects
identified there have yet to reach fruition. Apartheid has become
concretised in the many new low-income housing estates. New
malls have sprung up (such as Cape Gate and Century City), there
are more cars on the road than ever before and the modal split
between public and private transport remains unchanged.
Significantly, there have been no changes to the way in which water,
waste water, solid waste and energy is ‘delivered’ and distributed.
TOTAL INVESTMENT WITHIN CORRIDORS
APPROVED R 2,479,000,000
TOTAL R 11,257,607,000,000
APPROVED R 1,602,684,000,000
TOTAL R 25,428,302,700,000
These figures account only for projects valued at over R10million each
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005
Housing development and meeting demand for residential growth has been a
key determinant of investment is water and sanitation infrastructure. The
issue here is that investment is often demand driven, ad hoc and responsive
rather than co-ordinated and driven by long term strategic focus. Major
investment in bulk infrastructure required for new housing development, most
notably in northern areas of the city, as well as housing projects on the Cape
Flats such Delft and more recently N2 Gateway projects (albeit more limited
than the former) are examples of this.
Land use patterns and trends, particularly the rapid (peripheral) spatial
expansion of the City over the last ten to fifteen years has encompassed
significant road construction. Accommodating the needs of private sector
development has come at significant capital costs. The majority of the total
construction costs have been borne by the City, with limited developer
contributions. The road network is continually being expanded through capital
investment, so maintenance costs are continually rising. The maintenance
burden imposed on the City as a result is enormous.
Capital Investment Patterns
2001 - 2005
The City’s investment has for many years focused on road based
transport, supporting and reinforcing private motor vehicle based
transportation, with significant resource consumption (fuel) and
pollution (emissions) implications. Currently, transport investment is
responsive to housing development (largely private sector), rather
than directing such development, again undermining efficiency. The
existing (ever increasing) maintenance burden and underinvestment
in road maintenance is also highly unsustainable. The city simply
does not have the resources to continue to manage this.
The Need for Change
Desired
scenario
Equitable
Globally Competitive
Accessible
Going Nowhere
Yizo-Yizo
Slowly
Ecological
Distress
A crossroad:
- continue with current path
- Or change path towards shared growth