Risk Free

Risk premium
Beta
Ke / Wacc
Growth rate (Curtis right
corporation with same PE
value)
Number of shares
Closing share price
Value
Value by DCF valuation
Difference

5.98%
7.20%
1.5
16.78%
10%
1440000
39.75
57240000
69989.41799
-57170010.58

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
Working capital needs
(Change in WCM)
FCFF

39.75
0.048603762

1999
5575
1508
7083

2000
8347
1660
10007

2001
8634
1828
10462

2002
9792
2012
11804

2003
11106
2212
13318

2004
12576
2432
15008

7083
2433
4757

10007
1826
3492
-1265
9446

10462
2011
3867
375
8076

11804
2213
4289
422
9169

13318
2433
4757
468
10417

15008
2675
5273
516
11817

1
2
3
4
5

9446
8076
9169
10417
11817

16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
NPV of FCFF

8088.713821
5921.876806
5757.269507
5601.041371
5440.826548
30809.72805

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm

5575

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
191721.2
88273
119082.7

8347
8634
0.49722 0.034383611

9792
11106
12576
0.134120917 0.134191 0.132361

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
(Working capital needs)
FCFF

1999
5575
1508
7083

2000
8347
1660
10007

2001
8634
1828
10462

2002
9792
2012
11804

2003
11106
2212
13318

2004
12576
2432
15008

7083
2433
4757
-107

10007
1826
3492
4689

10462
2011
3867
4584

11804
2213
4289
5302

13318
2433
4757
6128

15008
2675
5273
7060

1
2
3
4
5

4689
4584
5302
6128
7060

16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
NPV of FCFF

4015.242
3361.303
3329.157
3294.92
3250.591
17251.21

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm
EPS
*1000

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
114542.8
52738.2
69989.42
0.048604
48.60376

30900000
150000000
119100000

Risk Free
Risk premium
Beta
Ke / Wacc
Growth rate (Curtis right
corporation with same PE
value)
Number of shares
Closing share price
Value
Value by DCF valuation
Difference

5.98%
7.20%
1.5
16.78%
10%
1440000
39.75
57240000
20300.5121
-57219699.49

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
Working capital needs
(Change in WCM)
FCFF

39.75
0.014097578

1999
5575
1508
7083
2304
4779
2433
4757

2000
8347
1660
10007
2304
7703
1826
3492
-1265
7142

2001
8634
1828
10462
2880
7582
2011
3867
375
5196

2002
9792
2012
11804
3456
8348
2213
4289
422
5713

1
2
3
4
5

7142
5196
5713
6097
6633

16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
NPV of FCFF

6115.773249
3810.063383
3587.2266
3278.251823
3053.990225
19845.30528

2003
11106
2212
13318
4320
8998
2433
4757
468
6097

2004
12576
2432
15008
5184
9824
2675
5273
516
6633

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm

5575

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
107615
49548.51
69393.82

8347
8634
0.49722 0.034383611

9792
11106
12576
0.134120917 0.134191 0.132361

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
(Working capital needs)
FCFF

1999
5575
1508
7083
2304
4779
2433
4757
-2411

2000
8347
1660
10007
2304
7703
1826
3492
2385

2001
8634
1828
10462
2880
7582
2011
3867
1704

2002
9792
2012
11804
3456
8348
2213
4289
1846

1
2
3
4
5

2385
1704
1846
1808
1876

16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
16.78%
NPV of FCFF

2042.302
1249.49
1159.114
972.1304
863.7548
6286.791

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm
EPS
*1000

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
30436.58
14013.72
20300.51
0.014098
14.09758

2003
11106
2212
13318
4320
8998
2433
4757
1808

2004
12576
2432
15008
5184
9824
2675
5273
1876

30900000
150000000
119100000

Risk Free
Risk premium
Beta
Ke / Wacc
Growth rate (Curtis right
corporation with same PE
value)
Number of shares
Closing share price
Value
Value by DCF valuation
Difference

5.98%
5.50%
1.5
14.23%
10%
1440000
39.75
57240000
109745890.1
52505890.06

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
Working capital needs
(Change in WCM)
FCFF
period
1
2
3
4
5

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm

1999
5575
1508
7083
2304
4779
2433
4757

2000
8347
1660
10007
2304
7703
1826
3492
-1265
7142

2001
8634
1828
10462
2880
7582
2011
3867
375
5196

2002
9792
2012
11804
3456
8348
2213
4289
422
5713

1
2
3
4
5

7142
5196
5713
6097
6633

14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
NPV of FCFF

6252.297995
3982.069071
3832.866507
3580.927166
3410.429791
21058.59053

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
172489.4
88687.3
109745.9

109745.9

2003
11106
2212
13318
4320
8998
2433
4757
468
6097

2004 geo mean

12576 9971.094
2432
15008
5184
9824
2675
5273
516
6633

1999
5575
1508
7083
2304
4779
2433
4757
-2411

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
(Working capital needs)
FCFF
period
1
2
3
4
5

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm
Fair value
*1000

2000
8347
1660
10007
2304
7703
1826
3492
2385

2001
8634
1828
10462
2880
7582
2011
3867
1704

2002
9792
2012
11804
3456
8348
2213
4289
1846

2385
1704
1846
1808
1876

14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
NPV of FCFF

2087.893
1305.898
1238.486
1061.886
964.566
6658.729

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
48784.87
25083.28
31742.01
0.022043
22.04306

2003
11106
2212
13318
4320
8998
2433
4757
1808

2004
12576
2432
15008
5184
9824
2675
5273
1876

8347
1660
10007
1826
3492
4689

30900000
150000000
119100000

Risk Free
Risk premium
Beta
Ke / Wacc
Growth rate (Curtis right
corporation with same PE
value)
Number of shares
Closing share price
Value
Value by DCF valuation
Difference

5.98%
5.50%
1.5
14.23%
10%
1440000
39.75
57240000
190804599.5
133564599.5

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
Working capital needs
(Change in WCM)
FCFF
period
1
2
3
4
5

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm

1999
5575
1508
7083

2000
8347
1660
10007

2001
8634
1828
10462

2002
9792
2012
11804

2003
11106
2212
13318

2004 geo mean

12576 9971.094
2432
15008

7083
2433
4757

10007
1826
3492
-1265
9446

10462
2011
3867
375
8076

11804
2213
4289
422
9169

13318
2433
4757
468
10417

15008
2675
5273
516
11817

1
2
3
4
5

9446
8076
9169
10417
11817

14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
NPV of FCFF

8269.281275
6189.220519
6151.505864
6118.175872
6075.84032
32804.02385

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
307297.9
158000.6
190804.6

190804.6

Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
(Working capital needs)
FCFF

1999
5575
1508
7083

2000
8347
1660
10007

2001
8634
1828
10462

2002
9792
2012
11804

2003
11106
2212
13318

2004
12576
2432
15008

7083
2433
4757
-107

10007
1826
3492
4689

10462
2011
3867
4584

11804
2213
4289
5302

13318
2433
4757
6128

15008
2675
5273
7060

1
2
3
4
5

4689
4584
5302
6128
7060

14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
14.23%
NPV of FCFF

4104.876
3513.049
3557.126
3599.134
3629.977
18404.16

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
Value of the firm
Fair value
*1000

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
183593.4
94396.55
112800.7
0.078334
78.33383

8347
1660
10007
1826
3492
4689

30900000
150000000
119100000

Tax rate
Risk Free
Risk premium
Beta
Ke
Kd
Share price
eps
PE ratio
Grwth rate
no of shares
debt

40.00%
5.98%
5.50%
0.85
10.65500%
51.00%
21.98
2.39
9.1966527 flowerserve corp with
7.00% simmilar PE and beta
62694361
119100

Sales
Net income
Depriciation
EAT
(Cash Dividents)
CF
(Capex)
(Working capital needs)
CF

55
21
3/8

*1000

1999
2187208
164041
26800
190841

2000
2329373
176101
27950
204051

2001
2480785
189036
29770
218806

190841
29480

204051
30745
45165.81
128140.19

218806
32747
48101.58
137957.42

1
2
3
4
5

128140.19
137957.42
146924.78
158221.94
168442.73

10.66%
10.66%
10.66%
10.66%
10.66%
NPV of FCFF

2002
2642037
201323
31700
233023

Face value
*1000

FCFF*(1+g)/WACC-g
4931155.16
2972305.57
3516276.06
119100
3397176.06
0.05418631
54.1863097

2004 geo mean

2996658
230143 201636.5
35960
266103
0.064998

233023
249267
266103
34870
36487
39556
51228.22 54558.06 58104.27
146924.78 158221.9 168442.7

period

Terminalvalue
TV
Pv of TV
value of firm
debt
Value of the firm

2003
2813769
216097
33170
249267

115801.536
112668.621
108438.106
105531.603
101530.625
543970.491

0.073518

0.06500118 0.0650004
0.065
6%
0.07345217 0.0649982 0.073385
7%

0.06499787
0.06499859

Yeats Aithmatic
Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
IRR
npv

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
IRR

Yeats
-20300.5
2385
1704
1846
1808
1876
30436.58
14%

TSE
0
128140.2
137957.4
146924.8
158221.9
168442.7

Yeats Geometric
total
-20300.5
130525.2
139661.4
148770.8
160029.9
170318.7
650%

Yeats Aithmatic
Yeats
TSE
total
-20300.5
0 -20300.5
2385
101968
104353
1704
110091
111795
1846
117243
119089
1808
124082
125890
1876
132789
134665
-21%

521%

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
IRR

Yeats
-31742
2385
1704
1846
1808
1876
48784.87
12%

TSE
0
128140.2
137957.4
146924.8
158221.9
168442.7

Yeats Geometric
Period
Yeats
TSE
0
-10000
0
1
2385
101968
2
1704
110091
3
1846
117243
4
1808
124082
5
1876
132789
IRR

-1%

total
-31742
130525.2
139661.4
148770.8
160029.9
170318.7
418%

total
-10000
104353
111795
119089
125890
134665
1051%

-20300.5121
2385
1704
1846
1808
1876
30436.57817
13%
14%
Rp1,035.67
Rp0.00

15%
(Rp521.17)

-31742.00518
2385
1704
1846
1808
1876
48784.86998
11%
12%
Rp1,374.88
Rp0.00

13%
(Rp1,290.41)

Company
Arvin
Tristar Aerospace
Detriot diesel
Sundstrand Corp
Walbro
Honeywel
hussmann
Bridgeport machines
Moore

Equity value/Target
net income
7.5
10
9.9
12.2
16.7
19.8
24.7
27.3 39.7666667
29
63

Net income (GM)

Industry multiple
Equity value
no of shares
Face value shares
*1000

Yeats
9971.094
9.9
98713.83
1440000
0.068551
68.55127

TSE
201636.5
39.76667
8018413
62694361
0.127897
127.8969

Arithmatic mean
Company
Yeats
Tse
Ratio

Value
share face value
No of shares
20300.5121
14.09757785
1440000
3397176.061
54.18630969
62694361
167.3443529
3.843660965
No. Of TSE exchange
374642.8244 Entry Price

Relative valuation
Company Value
Yeats
Tse
Ratio

98713.83097
8018413.295

share face value No of shares

69
127.8968821
1.865711303

1440000
62694361

No. Of TSE exchange

Minimum stock price

value
DCF
Relative
Market price
total

14.09757785
69
39.75

Geometric mean
Company
Yeats
Tse

Value
share face value
No of shares
31742.00518
22.04305915
1440000
3397176.061
54.18630969
62694361
107.0246206
2.458202798
No. Of TSE exchange
585793.8169 Walk away

1
0

3.843660965
0

771823.5924 Walk away

Minimum stock price

Maximum stock price

weights
50%
25%
25%

weighted value
7.048788925
17.13781788
9.9375
34.1241068

DCF
Relative
Market price
total

value
22.04305915
69
39.75

Maximum stock price

weights
50%
25%
25%

weighted value
11.02152958
17.13781788
9.9375
38.09684745