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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
15 October 2009
Issue No. 197
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
CSL (CSLKZG) MINI Update
– Getting back to buy zone
NWS (NWSKZI) MINI Trading Buy
– Result a catalyst
Banks (NAB,ANZ,WBC) Sector Update
– Pre-results form guide
Round Up Corner Strategy – Acquisition candidates
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200+45.4 4831.1 +0.9%
-5 to +54 $4.9 bn(A)
SPI - yesterday+44.0 4837.0 +0.9%
-3 to +53 22,776(L)
Dow Jones+144.8 10015.9 +1.5%
+2 to +157 Avg
S&P 500+18.8 1092.0 +1.8%
+5 to +20 Avg
Nasdaq+32.3 2172.2 +1.5%
+18 to +34 Avg
FTSE+102.0 5256.1 +2.0%
u.c to +107 High
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot+1.1 75.2 +1.4% +9.2%Gold Spot-1.51062.8-0.1% 
+6.0% 
Nickel (LME)+17.8 838.2 +2.2% +11.5%Aluminium (LME)-0.184.8-0.1%+3.8% Copper (LME)+3.7 281.3 +1.3%
+1.3% 
Zinc (LME)+0.4 91.0 +0.5% +11.1%Silver+0.1 17.9 +0.4% +7.8%Sugar-0.122.1-0.4% 
+0.4% 
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)0.34 0.02
+14.6 c
16.01
+0.8 c
RIO (UK)150.00 0.05
+30.0 c
52.38
-1086.6 c 
BLT (BHP UK)76.50 0.04
+18.4 c
32.18
-622.3 c 
BXB (UK)10.50 0.03
+4.2 c
7.34
+13.9 c
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)2.43 0.04
+71.1 c
38.90
+50.5 c
AWC (US)0.14 0.02
+6.9 c
1.88
-0.8 c 
TLS (US)0.03 0.00
+14.5 c
3.17
+0.7 c
ANZ (US)0.89 0.04
+23.1 c
25.32
+52.0 c
WBC (US)4.27 0.04
+123.1 c
26.94
+14.4 c
NAB (US)1.26 0.04
+29.5 c
32.22
+30.5 c
LGL (US)0.67 0.02
+29.7 c
3.25
-7.6 c 
RMD (US)-0.07 0.00
+47.5 c
5.20
-7.5 c 
JHX (US)0.20 0.01
+35.8 c
7.83
+9.5 c
PDN (CAN)0.08 0.02
+4.6 c
4.88
+6.4 c
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
A few more bears crossed the floor overnight, JP's exceeding expectations and a chance to react to Intel numbers had the Dow up thru10K closing 144pts higher. Elsewhere, the S&P up 1.8% and the Nasdaq 1.5% higher.
Financials
- Banks a clear standout after a forecast beating set of numbers from JP's. Q3 EPS of $0.82 beat by $0.30, Revenue of$26.6bln (+3.9%) vs.$24.96bln and there was talk of a dividend lift in the not too distant future. The stock finished 3.3% higher,sneaking into the Dows' top5 and one of the larger pt contributors.
Financials
- Better than expected numbers from JP's, proving more than enough to prompt another round of buying across the banks.BofA topped the dow up over 5%, Morgan Stanley added 5.4%, US Bancorp just shy of 5% and Well finished 4.3% higher.
Eco
- Outside of Fed minutes, just the one data point overnight. Advanced Retail Sales for Sept -1.5% vs -2.1% expected, Less Autos+0.5% vs +0.2%.
Bonds/FX
- Wins from Intel and JP's, better than expected eco numbers meant yet another night where safety wasn't a priority. Yieldsup b/w 2-7bps across the 3 maturities and the DXY down a full cent, the Aussie trading 91.4c.
Growth
- Outside of the banks, growth featured heavily on the leaderboard. Dupont, Caterpillar, United Tech and 3M all finishedaround 3% higher and together accounted for roughly one-third of the Dow's gains.
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
The FTSE climbed 2% or 102pts in a broad based rally underpinned by strong corporate earnings and positive eco data. The FTSEEurofirst 300 was up 2.1, the DAX added 2.4% and the CAC was 2.1% higher.
UK Banks
- A positive result from JP's helped the sector to some strong gains. HSBC rose 2.7%, Barclays soared 6.6%, RBS added2.9% and Lloyds ended 3.7% higher.
Euro Banks
- The JP's result also had positive repercussions on the continent. Deutsche Bank rose 4.2%, Commerzbank added 3.3%,BNP also added 3.3%, SocGen jumped 4.7%, Credit Agricole was up 4.1% and UniCredit ended the day 2.4% higher.
Eco
- British jobless benefit rose by its smallest amount in almost 1-1/2 years in September, in a sign the worst of the job-shedding dueto the recession may be over. Jobless claims change was 20.8k vs 24.5k expected and down from 24.4k previously.
Tech
- A strong result post market from Intel the previous night gave a good boost to the sector. German chipmaker Infineon was up4%, ST Microelectronics added 2.6% and Nokia climbed 2.8%.
Chemicals
- BASF, up 7.4%, was one of the best overnight as the world's largest chemical maker reported better than expected 3Qresults. Arkema, BASF’s French peer, rose 7.3%, Switzerland’s Clariant was up 7.3% and Germany’s Wacker Chemie gained 6.3%.
 
 
Commodiites Commentary
Miners
- An improved demand outlook, stronger metal prices and a weaker dollar saw the miners the best on the bourse overnight. Rio jumped 5.3% after strong output growth, BHP was up 4.3%, Anglo rose 6.3%, Xstrata added 7.7% and Vedanta was also up 7.7%.
Energy
- Crude moved to a 12 month high over the $75 per barrel mark. BP rose 2.2%, Shell climbed 2.4%, BG Group added 3.2%,Tullow was 3.6% higher and Cairn soared 8.6%. In Europe Total was up 3%, Statoil climbed 2.5% and Repsol rose 2.9%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded up 44pts or 0.92% to 4837. Open at 4805 with a low of 4790 and a high of 4846. Volume 23,695. Overnight the SPItraded down 49pts to 4886.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUSUS
Columbus Day holiday
TuesdayAUS
NAB Business confidence, NAB Business conditions
USWednesdayAUS
WMI consumer confidence
US
Import price, retail sales
ThursdayAUS
RBA Governor speaks, RBA bulletin
US
Business inventories, FOMC minutes, CPI, NY Fed Empire PMI
FridayAUSUS
Philadelphia Fed index, industrial production, Michigan consumer sentiment
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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