Copyright 2014

Arkansas

February 17 - 20, 2014

HAI3224

400 Interviews
Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

Hello, my name is __________ from HAI, a national research firm.

[IF LANDLINE] We're conducting a survey in Arkansas to get people's opinions on important issues. This number was selected at random
and according to the research procedure, I would like to speak to the [ALTERNATE: YOUNGEST/OLDEST] [ALTERNATE: MAN/WOMAN] at this
address who is registered to vote.
[IF CELL PHONE] We're conducting a survey of cell phone users in Arkansas to get people's opinions on important issues.

Since you are

on a cell phone, I can call you back if you are driving or doing anything else that requires your full attention. Can you talk safely and
privately now? [IF YES, CONTINUE. IF NO, SCHEDULE CALLBACK]

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS

QB. Are you officially registered to vote in that county in Arkansas?

Yes................................................................
100%
No/(Dont know) ----> TERMINATE
Definitely vote ................................
77%
Probably vote ................................
23
All other responses-> TERMINATE

QC. In November, elections will be held for Governor, U.S. Senate, Congress, and

other offices. But there is no election for President. Although it is a while away, how
likely are you to vote in that election: will you definitely vote; probably but not certainly
vote in it; are the chances about 50-50 that you will vote, or is it likely that you will not
vote in November?
Q1. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a Democrat, an

Independent or a Republican?
ASK IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN

Would you call yourself a strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN] or a not very strong

[DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]?

VOL:
VOL:

Strong Democrat ................................

19%
Weak Democrat ................................
8
Independent ................................
29
Weak Republican ................................
12
Strong Republican ................................
25
(Green Party) ................................
(Other/Don't know)................................
8

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS

Q2. Now I'd like to ask your impressions of some people in public life. As I read each name, tell me whether your impression of that

person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don't recognize a name, just say so.
Here's the first one: [READ ITEM] Have you heard of him? [IF YES] Is your impression of that person very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
FAVORABLE
Very Some
Mark Pryor................................................................15%
33
ROTATE

(Mixed)

UNFAVORABLE
Some
Very

(Cant
rate)

Never
heard

RECOGNITION
Effective Total

TOTAL
Fav
Unfav

19

17

85%

94%

47%

36

Tom Cotton ................................................................

12%

25

11

18

13

21

67%

79%

36%

28

Barack Obama ................................................................

19%

13

15

50

98%

100%

32%

65

Q3. Mark Pryor is running for another term in the U.S. Senate this year.

At this
point, would you most likely vote for Pryor to serve another term in the U.S.
Senate, or would you most likely vote to replace him with a Republican? [IF
CHOICE] Do you strongly or only somewhat support [RE-ELECTING
PRYOR/REPLACING PRYOR WITH A REPUBLICAN]?

VOL:
VOL:

Likely Definite
PRYOR: Strongly................................
23%
24%
PRYOR: Somewhat ................................
16
14
REPUBLICAN: Somewhat ................................
14
14
REPUBLICAN: Strongly ................................
33
36
(Depends) ................................................................
5
5
(Dont know) ................................ 9
7
TOTAL PRYOR ................................39%
TOTAL REPUBLICAN ................................
47

Q4. In particular, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, the candidates are
[ROTATE:]

Mark Pryor, the Democrat,

Tom Cotton, the Republican,
Nathan LaFrance, the Libertarian,
Mark Swaney, the Green party candidate, AND
Rod Bryan, the Independent
for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] Who would you lean toward
supporting if the election were held today?

VOL:

38%
50

Likely Definite
Pryor ................................................................
38%
37%
(Lean Pryor) ................................
2
2
Cotton ................................................................
36
39
(Lean Cotton)................................ 1
2
Vote/lean Bryan ................................ 6
6
Vote/lean Swaney................................1
1
Vote/lean LaFrance ................................
1
1
(Undecided) ................................ 14
12
TOTAL PRYOR ................................40%
TOTAL COTTON ................................
37

39%
41

Hickman Analytics, Inc.

HAI3224

Arkansas

Page 2/3

Q5. And, in the election for U.S. Senate, what if the candidates were only [ROTATE:]
Mark Pryor, the Democrat, AND

Tom Cotton, the Republican?

If the election were held today, which one would you vote for? [IF UNDECIDED]
Well, which one would you lean toward supporting if the election were held today?

VOL:

Likely Definite
Pryor ................................................................
44%
41%
(Lean Pryor) ................................
1
1
Cotton ................................................................
46
50
(Lean Cotton)................................ *
1
(Don't know)................................
8
7
TOTAL PRYOR ................................46%
TOTAL COTTON ................................
46

42%
51

Now for a few questions on other issues.

ROTATE ORDER OF ASKING Q6 and Q7/Q8
Q6. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly

oppose oil and natural gas extraction that uses hydraulic fracturing, sometimes
known as fracking?
VOL:

SUPPORT: Strongly ................................

28%
SUPPORT: Somewhat................................
21
OPPOSE: Somewhat ................................
16
OPPOSE: Strongly................................
16
(Don't know) ................................ 19
TOTAL SUPPORT ................................
49%
TOTAL OPPOSE ................................
32

Q7. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly

oppose the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline across Montana, South
Dakota, and Nebraska to bring oil from Canada and the Northern U.S. to refineries
in Texas?

VOL:

SUPPORT: Strongly ................................

50%
SUPPORT: Somewhat................................
20
OPPOSE: Somewhat ................................
8
OPPOSE: Strongly................................
8
(Don't know) ................................ 13
TOTAL SUPPORT ................................
70%
TOTAL OPPOSE ................................
16

ASK IF SUPPORT KEYSTONE [N = 280, MoE = 5.9%]

Q8. For this question, assume that President Obama denies the permit to construct

the Keystone XL pipeline. Would Obama denying the permit to construct the
Keystone XL pipeline make you much more likely, somewhat more likely,
somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for Mark Pryor for U.S. Senate?

VOL:
VOL:

MORE LIKELY: Much ................................

14%
MORE LIKELY: Somewhat ................................
13
LESS LIKELY: Somewhat ................................
21
LESS LIKELY: Much ................................
24
(No difference) ................................15
(Don't know) ................................ 13
TOTAL MORE LIKELY ................................
27%
TOTAL LESS LIKELY ................................
46

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS

Q9. Looking ahead, how important are energy issues, including the Keystone XL

pipeline, in terms of how you will vote in this years election? Are they very
important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all in
determining how you will vote?

VOL:
VOL:

Very important................................ 38%

Somewhat important ................................
38
Not very important................................
12
Not important at all ................................
7
(Depends) ................................................................
*
(Don't know) ................................ 4
TOTAL IMPORTANT ................................
76%
TOTAL NOT IMPORTANT................................
19

Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for statistical purposes only.
D100. Sex.

Male ................................................................
48%
Female ................................................................
52

VOL:

18-24 ................................................................
6%
25-29 ................................................................
5
30-34 ................................................................
6
35-39 ................................................................
7
40-44 ................................................................
7
45-49 ................................................................
7
50-54 ................................................................
9
55-59 ................................................................
9
60-64 ................................................................
10
65+ ................................................................
33
(Refused) ................................................................
2

VOL:

Liberal ................................................................
10%
Somewhat liberal ................................6
Moderate ................................................................
14
Somewhat conservative ................................
21
Conservative ................................ 40
(Dont know) ................................ 9

D101. What is your age?

D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or conservative?

TOTAL LIBERAL................................
16%
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ................................
61

Hickman Analytics, Inc.

HAI3224

Arkansas

Page 3/3

VOL:

Yes ................................................................
66%
No................................................................
32
(Don't know/Not sure) ................................2

VOL:

Yes ................................................................
87%
No................................................................
13
(Don't know/Not sure) ................................*

VOL:

Landline only ................................................................

13%
Landline mostly ................................................................
9
Both ................................................................
20
Cell mostly................................................................
23
Cell only ................................................................
34
(Don't know) ................................................................
1

D510. Do you have a landline telephone?

D511. Do you have a mobile telephone?

D512. Would you say you mainly use your landline telephone, mainly use your mobile

phone, or do you use both equally?

TOTAL LANDLINE ................................ 22%

TOTAL CELL................................................................
57
D300. And just to make sure we have a representative sample of voters, could you please
tell me your race? [IF NECESSARY] Well, most people consider themselves black or white?

VOL:
VOL:

Black ................................................................
11%
White ................................................................
85
(Other) ................................................................
2
(Dont know/Refused) ................................2

VOL:

Yes ................................................................
3%
No................................................................
92
(Don't know/Refused) ................................5

D301. Do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American?

Thank you for taking the time to complete this interview.

Personal popularity of U.S. Senate candidates

Mark Pryor
Total CR/
Unfav NH

Net
Fav

Total
Fav

Tom Cotton
Total CR/
Unfav NH

Net
Fav

Total recognition
Mark
Tom
Pryor Cotton

Effective recognition
Mark
Tom
Pryor
Cotton

Total

Total
Fav

TOTAL

400

47%

36

15

11

36%

28

33

94%

79%

85%

67%

Definite voters

308

47%

42

10

40%

31

27

95%

84%

90%

73%

MEDIA MARKET
Ft. Smith
Little Rock
Rest

87
206
107

47%
49%
46%

38
37
34

11
15
18

9
12
12

36%
39%
32%

29
33
18

30
26
49

7
6
14

96%
95%
91%

83%
84%
67%

89%
85%
82%

70%
74%
51%

RACE
White
Black

339
44

45%
69%

40
17

14
15

5
52

38%
28%

28
26

31
45

10
2

95%
90%

82%
67%

86%
85%

69%
55%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
White Democrat
Others
Republican

106
69
148
146

75%
78%
45%
30%

11
11
34
57

13
10
19
12

64
67
11
-27

18%
13%
33%
52%

50
63
25
16

30
22
39
30

-32
-50
9
37

90%
92%
97%
93%

81%
87%
76%
82%

87%
90%
81%
88%

70%
78%
61%
70%

WHITE-SEX
Male
Female

163
176

39%
50%

46
33

13
15

-7
16

46%
31%

23
33

29
33

22
-2

94%
96%

82%
81%

87%
85%

71%
67%

WHITE-AGE
18-39
40-59
60+

75
112
152

27%
50%
49%

44
32
43

28
16
6

-17
18
6

31%
45%
37%

22
17
39

45
34
22

9
28
-3

88%
94%
99%

72%
81%
86%

72%
84%
94%

55%
66%
78%

WHITE-IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative

52
70
217

69%
54%
36%

8
23
52

20
19
11

61
31
-17

14%
24%
48%

51
42
18

29
29
32

-37
-18
30

94%
95%
95%

78%
81%
83%

80%
81%
89%

71%
71%
68%

RE-ELECT
Pryor
Republican
Depends/Don't know

158
189
53

83%
21%
36%

5
65
27

12
12
34

78
-44
9

20%
56%
15%

44
15
26

34
26
58

-24
41
-11

95%
95%
88%

80%
85%
59%

88%
88%
66%

66%
74%
42%

2-WAY SENATE VOTE

Pryor
Cotton

183
184

77%
23%

9
63

14
13

68
-39

17%
61%

44
12

37
24

-27
49

94%
94%

78%
86%

86%
87%

63%
76%

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know

197
127
76

41%
58%
46%

46
27
27

12
13
26

-5
32
20

46%
28%
26%

19
42
29

34
27
44

27
-14
-3

94%
94%
94%

78%
84%
74%

88%
87%
74%

66%
73%
56%

KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know

280
66
54

42%
71%
47%

45
14
18

12
11
34

-3
56
29

44%
20%
16%

23
48
30

31
30
51

21
-28
-14

95%
91%
92%

81%
77%
74%

88%
89%
66%

69%
70%
49%

EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Pryor
Less likely to vote Pryor
No difference/Don't know

75
128
77

69%
24%
45%

18
69
32

13
6
22

51
-45
14

33%
55%
36%

37
15
23

29
27
38

-4
40
13

91%
98%
94%

82%
83%
78%

87%
94%
78%

71%
73%
62%

ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important

154
246

35%
55%

52
27

12
17

-17
29

42%
33%

22
32

35
33

21
0

96%
93%

79%
79%

88%
83%

65%
67%

U.S. Senate vote preference

Total

Q3. Re-elect Pryor

Dep
Net
Re-elect Replace /DK Re-elect

Q4. Current vote

Pryor

Cotton Bryan Swaney

Q5. Two-way vote

LaFrance

DK

Net
Pryor

Pryor

Cotton

DK

Net
Pryor

TOTAL

400

39%

47

13

-8

40%

37

14

46%

46

Definite voters

308

38%

50

12

-12

39%

41

12

-2

42%

51

-9

MEDIA MARKET
Ft. Smith
Little Rock
Rest

87
206
107

38%
40%
40%

52
47
43

11
13
17

-14
-7
-4

33%
40%
47%

43
39
30

7
5
7

4
0
1

1
2
0

11
14
16

-10
1
17

42%
46%
49%

51
47
40

7
8
11

-9
-1
9

RACE
White
Black

339
44

35%
70%

52
14

13
16

-17
56

35%
79%

43
3

7
3

1
4

1
0

14
11

-8
76

40%
89%

52
3

8
8

-12
86

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
White Democrat
Others
Republican

106
69
148
146

82%
84%
38%
10%

7
6
38
86

11
10
24
4

76
78
0
-76

86%
84%
37%
10%

3
4
22
78

1
1
14
2

0
0
3
1

1
1
2
1

10
11
22
8

84
80
15
-68

91%
89%
47%
12%

5
7
38
84

4
4
16
4

86
81
9
-72

WHITE-SEX
Male
Female

163
176

32%
38%

55
49

12
13

-23
-12

30%
39%

49
36

9
5

1
0

2
0

9
19

-20
3

36%
43%

57
47

7
9

-22
-4

WHITE-AGE
18-39
40-59
60+

75
112
152

35%
29%
40%

52
53
52

13
18
8

-17
-25
-11

25%
29%
44%

38
48
41

6
9
6

1
1
0

3
1
0

27
12
9

-13
-19
3

34%
35%
45%

52
56
49

13
9
6

-18
-21
-3

WHITE-IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative

52
70
217

66%
50%
23%

18
31
67

15
19
10

48
19
-44

66%
57%
20%

9
20
58

6
3
8

0
0
1

1
0
1

18
21
11

57
37
-38

74%
61%
24%

15
29
68

11
10
7

60
32
-44

RE-ELECT
Pryor
Republican
Depends/Don't know

158
189
53

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

87%
5%
26%

4
74
9

3
6
16

0
2
4

0
1
2

6
12
43

83
-68
17

96%
6%
39%

4
87
23

0
7
38

92
-81
16

2-WAY SENATE VOTE

Pryor
Cotton

183
184

83%
4%

6
90

11
7

77
-86

84%
3%

1
79

5
6

1
1

1
1

7
9

83
-76

100%
0%

0
100

0
0

100
-100

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know

197
127
76

31%
54%
38%

60
31
42

10
15
20

-29
23
-4

31%
53%
44%

47
26
31

10
3
2

1
1
1

1
2
0

10
16
21

-17
27
13

37%
57%
48%

58
32
39

5
11
13

-21
25
9

KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know

280
66
54

32%
65%
45%

57
22
26

10
13
29

-25
43
18

32%
67%
48%

46
19
14

8
4
0

1
2
0

1
2
0

11
7
38

-14
48
35

38%
71%
54%

55
25
25

7
4
21

-17
46
29

EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Pryor
Less likely to vote Pryor
No difference/Don't know

75
128
77

58%
15%
36%

34
76
49

8
9
16

25
-61
-13

58%
14%
37%

27
62
39

4
13
5

2
1
0

3
1
0

5
9
19

31
-48
-2

65%
19%
43%

30
77
43

5
4
14

35
-58
1

ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important

154
246

27%
47%

60
39

12
14

-33
8

31%
46%

43
34

7
6

3
0

3
0

14
14

-11
12

34%
53%

55
41

11
6

-21
13

Keystone pipeline and hydraulic fracturing

Total

Q6. Hydraulic fracturing

Net
Support Oppose DK Support

Q7. Keystone pipeline

Support Oppose

DK

Net
Support

Q8. Effect on Pryor vote if stopped

More
Less
None
Net
Total
likely
likely
/DK
More

TOTAL

400

49%

32

19

17

70%

16

13

54

280

27%

46

28

-19

Definite voters

308

49%

34

17

16

73%

18

56

226

25%

48

27

-23

MEDIA MARKET
Ft. Smith
Little Rock
Rest

87
206
107

50%
46%
54%

35
34
25

14
20
21

15
13
29

71%
68%
73%

18
16
16

10
16
11

53
52
57

62
140
78

24%
30%
24%

43
46
47

33
24
29

-19
-17
-23

RACE
White
Black

339
44

50%
40%

31
31

18
28

19
9

74%
50%

14
26

12
24

60
24

251
22

22%
82%

49
15

29
3

-27
68

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
White Democrat
Others
Republican

106
69
148
146

33%
32%
46%
64%

45
48
33
21

23
20
21
14

-12
-16
13
43

54%
52%
72%
80%

28
30
15
10

19
18
14
10

26
23
57
70

57
36
106
117

60%
47%
24%
13%

17
20
40
65

23
32
36
22

43
27
-16
-52

WHITE-SEX
Male
Female

163
176

69%
33%

23
39

8
28

46
-7

85%
64%

12
16

3
20

73
48

138
113

23%
21%

51
47

27
32

-28
-26

WHITE-AGE
18-39
40-59
60+

75
112
152

58%
51%
46%

32
35
28

11
13
26

26
16
17

77%
78%
70%

13
12
16

10
10
14

64
66
54

57
87
106

23%
25%
19%

52
44
51

25
31
30

-29
-19
-33

WHITE-IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative

52
70
217

32%
35%
60%

54
43
23

15
22
18

-22
-8
37

53%
50%
87%

31
23
7

16
27
6

22
27
80

28
35
188

29%
20%
21%

25
35
55

46
45
24

4
-15
-34

RE-ELECT
Pryor
Republican
Depends/Don't know

158
189
53

38%
62%
36%

43
21
36

18
17
28

-5
41
-1

58%
85%
55%

27
8
16

15
8
29

30
77
39

91
160
29

48%
16%
20%

21
61
38

31
23
41

27
-45
-18

2-WAY SENATE VOTE

Pryor
Cotton

183
184

40%
62%

40
22

20
16

0
40

59%
84%

25
9

16
7

33
75

107
154

46%
15%

23
64

31
21

22
-49

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know

197
127
76

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

88%
52%
53%

7
38
6

5
10
41

81
15
47

174
67
40

22%
39%
27%

50
37
42

28
24
32

-28
2
-15

KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know

280
66
54

62%
20%
18%

24
73
23

14
7
59

38
-53
-5

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

280
0
0

27%
0%
0%

46
0
0

28
0
0

-19
0
0

EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Pryor
Less likely to vote Pryor
No difference/Don't know

75
128
77

51%
68%
63%

35
19
21

14
13
16

17
49
42

100%
100%
100%

0
0
0

0
0
0

100
100
100

75
128
77

100%
0%
0%

0
100
0

0
0
100

100
-100
0

ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important

154
246

61%
42%

23
37

16
21

37
5

77%
66%

14
18

9
16

63
48

118
162

24%
29%

57
37

18
34

-33
-8