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ME-Gov Normington Petts for Mike Michaud (March 2014)

ME-Gov Normington Petts for Mike Michaud (March 2014)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Mar 11, 2014
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03/12/2014

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M E M O R A N D U M To: Interested Parties From: Normington, Petts and Associates Date: March 11, 2014
The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 800 likely voters in Maine. Interviews were conducted  March 3-6, 2014. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The poll has the following makeup: 34% registered Democrats, 32% registered Republicans and 34% registered Independents and minor parties; 50% men and 50% women; 29% 18-44, 33% 45-49 and 36% 60 and older; 52% CD1 and 48% CD2. Question wording can be found on page two of this memo.
Mike Michaud has led in every poll conducted since he officially announced his candidacy last August (see  public polling trend on page 3). Our most recent poll shows the race at 39% for Michaud and 35% for Paul LePage. Third party candidate Eliot Cutler remains far behind, with just 16% of the vote. Michaud has important advantages over LePage on key characteristics as well. When asked which candidate is  best described by a particular attribute, Michaud holds significant leads over LePage on experience, caring, understanding the middle class and understanding how state government works (see table below). On the important metric of electability, Michaud holds an overwhelming 51% lead over Eliot Cutler. Note that this question was only asked among the 65% of voters who do not currently support LePage. Attribute
Michaud LePage Cutler
Has the right experience to be Governor 41% 33% 11% Cares about people like you 41% 27% 11% Understands the problems of the middle class 43% 31% 10% Understands how state government works 46% 26% 8% Has the best chance of beating Paul LePage (n=520) 69% 18%
 
 
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202-342-0700
2
SELECTED SURVEY RESPONSES AND DEMOGRAPHICS
How are you registered, as a DEMOCRAT, a REPUBLICAN, an INDEPENDENT or something else? YES: DEMOCRAT ....................................................... 34% YES: REPUBLICAN .................................................... 32 YES: INDEPENDENT/OTHER .................................... 34 YES: DON’T KNOW ................................... TERMINATE NO/DON'T KNOW ...................................... TERMINATE In November, there will be a general election in Maine for Governor, Congress and other offices. How likely would you say you are to vote in the election in November? Will you DEFINITELY VOTE, PROBABLY VOTE, are the CHANCES 50-50, will you PROBABLY NOT VOTE or will you DEFINITELY NOT VOTE? DEFINITELY VOTE .......................................... 84% PROBABLY VOTE ............................................ 12 50-50 ................................................................... 4 PROBABLY NOT VOTE ..................
TERMINATE
DEFINITELY NOT VOTE .................
TERMINATE
(DON’T KNOW) ...............................
TERMINATE
 If the general election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: [RANDOMIZE] Mike Michaud, the Democrat Paul LePage, the Republican Eliot Cutler, the Independent for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] Well, toward whom do you lean? MICHAUD .................................................................... 34% (LEAN MICHAUD) ......................................................... 5 LePAGE ...................................................................... 32 (LEAN LePAGE) ............................................................ 3 CUTLER ...................................................................... 13 (LEAN CUTLER) ........................................................... 3 (OTHER) ..................................................................... <1 (UNDECIDED) ............................................................... 9 TOTAL MICHAUD ....................................................... 39% TOTAL LePAGE .......................................................... 35 TOTAL CUTLER ......................................................... 16 I’m going to read you some phrases and regardless of which candidate you now support, I’d like you tell me whether you think each one best describes [RANDOMIZE: Democrat Mike Michaud, Republican Paul LePage or Independent Eliot Cutler]. [RANDOMIZE] MICHAUD LePAGE CUTLER [ALL] [NONE] [DK] a. Has the right experience to be Governor ....................................................... 41% 33 11 3 3 8 b. Cares about people like you .......................................................................... 41% 27 11 5 6 10 c. Understands the problems facing the middle class ....................................... 43% 31 10 4 4 8 d. Understands how state government works .................................................... 46% 26 8 10 2 9 e. [CUTLER/MICHAUD/UNDECIDED ONLY] Has the best chance of beating Paul LePage (n=520) ........................................................................ 69% - 18 2 1 10 SEX (OBSERVATION: DO NOT ASK) MALE ........................................................................... 50% FEMALE ...................................................................... 50 What is your age? (RECORD IN PROPER CATEGORY) (READ CODES IF NECESSARY) 18-29 ............................................................................. 6% 30-34
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..4 35-39 ............................................................................. 8 40-44 ........................................................................... 10 45-49 ............................................................................. 8 50-54 ........................................................................... 12 55-59 ........................................................................... 13 60-64 ........................................................................... 12 65-69 ............................................................................. 9 70+ ................................................................................ 4 (REFUSED) ................................................................... 3

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