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Lighthouse Macro Report - 2014 - March

Lighthouse Macro Report - 2014 - March

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Published by Alexander Gloy
We look at 13 carefully tested macro-economic indicators in order to calculate the probability for the US economy to be in a recession.
In this issue we highlight recent weakness in retail sales, building permits and income. While not yet at recessionary levels, the trend is worrying and bears watching.
We look at 13 carefully tested macro-economic indicators in order to calculate the probability for the US economy to be in a recession.
In this issue we highlight recent weakness in retail sales, building permits and income. While not yet at recessionary levels, the trend is worrying and bears watching.

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Published by: Alexander Gloy on Mar 16, 2014
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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05/04/2014

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L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 M󰁡󰁲󰁣󰁨 2014 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 1
󰁍󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 󰁒󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴
󰁅󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 󰁉󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 󰁕󰁓󰁁
󰁍󰁡󰁲󰁣󰁨 󰀲󰀰󰀱󰀴
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 M󰁡󰁲󰁣󰁨 2014 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 2 C󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁳 󰁓󰁵󰁭󰁭󰁡󰁲󰁹 ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 P󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁴󰁹 I󰁮󰁤󰁥󰁸........................................................................................................ 4 I󰁮󰁴󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................................................................. 5 F󰁥󰁤 F󰁵󰁮󰁤󰁳 R󰁡󰁴󰁥 ............................................................................................................................................ 10 C󰁲󰁵󰁤󰁥 O󰁩󰁬 ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: B󰁵󰁩󰁬󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 P󰁥󰁲󰁭󰁩󰁴󰁳 ................................................................................................................... 12 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: N󰁯󰁮󰀭F󰁡󰁲󰁭 P󰁡󰁹󰁲󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁳 ................................................................................................................ 13 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: E󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁩󰁳󰁨󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁵󰁳 H󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥󰁨󰁯󰁬󰁤 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ............................................................................. 14 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: J󰁯󰁢󰁳 G󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁥󰁤/L󰁯󰁳󰁴 .................................................................................................................. 15 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: I󰁮󰁩󰁴󰁩󰁡󰁬 󰁡󰁮󰁤 R󰁥󰁶󰁩󰁳󰁥󰁤 N󰁯󰁮󰀭F󰁡󰁲󰁭 P󰁡󰁹󰁲󰁯󰁬󰁬󰁳 .................................................................................. 16 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: F󰁵󰁬󰁬 󰁔󰁩󰁭󰁥 ............................................................................................................................... 17 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: P󰁯󰁰󰁵󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮, L󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 F󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥, E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁥󰁥󰁳 .................................................................................... 18 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: L󰁡󰁢󰁯󰁲 F󰁯󰁲󰁣󰁥 P󰁡󰁲󰁴󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁰󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 R󰁡󰁴󰁥 ............................................................................................. 19 E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴: 󰁕󰁮󰁥󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴..................................................................................................................... 20 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳: E󰁭󰁰󰁬󰁯󰁹󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 ............................................................................................................................ 21 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 D󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 .......................................................................................................... 22 R󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 󰁓󰁰󰁥󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 ................................................................................................................ 23 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥: 󰁕󰁮󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁳󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁯󰁦 M󰁩󰁣󰁨󰁩󰁧󰁡󰁮 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ............................................................................... 24 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁩󰁤󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥: C󰁯󰁮󰁦󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁮󰁣󰁥 B󰁯󰁡󰁲󰁤 󰁓󰁵󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁹 ...................................................................................... 25 C󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁩󰁴: 󰁔󰁯󰁴󰁡󰁬 O󰁵󰁴󰁳󰁴󰁡󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 ............................................................................................................................ 26 C󰁲󰁥󰁤󰁩󰁴: B󰁡󰁮󰁫 L󰁯󰁡󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 L󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁥󰁳 .................................................................................................................... 27 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: N󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁮󰁡󰁬 .................................................................................................................................. 28 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 ......................................................................................................................................... 29 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰀭󰁣󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡 ........................................................................................................................ 30 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: E󰁸󰁣󰁬󰁵󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 A󰁵󰁴󰁯󰁳 ...................................................................................................................... 31 R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁓󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳: O󰁮󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥...................................................................................................................................... 32 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: H󰁯󰁵󰁲󰁳 󰁗󰁯󰁲󰁫󰁥󰁤 ................................................................................................................... 33 󰁗󰁥󰁥󰁫󰁬󰁹 E󰁡󰁲󰁮󰁩󰁮󰁧󰁳 .......................................................................................................................................... 34 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: O󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁳 ............................................................................................................................... 35 O󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁳: C󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡󰁬 G󰁯󰁯󰁤󰁳 ................................................................................................................................. 36 M󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧: 󰁓󰁵󰁰󰁰󰁬󰁩󰁥󰁲 D󰁥󰁬󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁩󰁥󰁳 ............................................................................................................ 37 E󰁮󰁥󰁲󰁧󰁹: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁰󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 .................................................................................................................................. 38 E󰁮󰁥󰁲󰁧󰁹: P󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮...................................................................................................................................... 39 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁮󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: M󰁩󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁤 ................................................................................................................... 40 󰁔󰁲󰁡󰁮󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: G󰁡󰁳󰁯󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥 C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁰󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 ...................................................................................................... 41 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥: R󰁥󰁡󰁬 D󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 I󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 󰁰󰁥󰁲 C󰁡󰁰󰁩󰁴󰁡 .............................................................................................. 42 I󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮: C󰁯󰁮󰁳󰁵󰁭󰁥󰁲 & P󰁲󰁯󰁤󰁵󰁣󰁥󰁲 P󰁲󰁩󰁣󰁥󰁳....................................................................................................... 43 I󰁮󰁦󰁬󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 E󰁸󰁰󰁥󰁣󰁴󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁳 ................................................................................................................................. 44
 
 
L󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁨󰁯󰁵󰁳󰁥 I󰁮󰁶󰁥󰁳󰁴󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 M󰁡󰁮󰁡󰁧󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴
 
M󰁡󰁣󰁲󰁯 R󰁥󰁰󰁯󰁲󰁴 󰀭 󰁕󰁓 E󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 I󰁮󰁤󰁩󰁣󰁡󰁴󰁯󰁲󰁳 󰀭 M󰁡󰁲󰁣󰁨 2014 P󰁡󰁧󰁥 3
Summary
󰁔󰁨󰁥 "G󰁯󰁯󰁤":
 
I󰁭󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁥󰁮󰁴 󰁩󰁮 I󰁓M 󰁭󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁦󰁡󰁣󰁴󰁵󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁯󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁤󰁥󰁬󰁩󰁶󰁥󰁲󰁩󰁥󰁳
 
I󰁮󰁣󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁥 󰁩󰁮 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁢󰁡󰁮󰁫 󰁬󰁯󰁡󰁮󰁳 󰁡󰁮󰁤 󰁬󰁥󰁡󰁳󰁥󰁳 󰁔󰁨󰁥 "B󰁡󰁤":
 
F󰁵󰁲󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁲 󰁤󰁲󰁯󰁰 󰁩󰁮 󰁢󰁵󰁩󰁬󰁤󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁰󰁥󰁲󰁭󰁩󰁴󰁳
 
F󰁵󰁲󰁴󰁨󰁥󰁲 󰁤󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁩󰁮 󰁮󰁵󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 󰁯󰁦 󰁪󰁯󰁢󰁳 󰁣󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁴󰁥󰁤 󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁲 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁰󰁡󰁳󰁴 12 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁨󰁳
 
󰁓󰁬󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁳󰁴 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁩󰁮 󰁲󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 (1.5%) 󰁳󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁥 N󰁯󰁶󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 2009
 
D󰁯󰁷󰁮󰁷󰁡󰁲󰁤 󰁲󰁥󰁶󰁩󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁯󰁦 󰁲󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁦󰁯󰁲 J󰁡󰁮󰁵󰁡󰁲󰁹 (󰀭1.8󰁢󰁮) 󰁡󰁮󰁤 D󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁭󰁢󰁥󰁲 (󰀭3.1󰁢󰁮)
 
O󰁶󰁥󰁲 󰁰󰁡󰁳󰁴 3 󰁭󰁯󰁮󰁴󰁨󰁳, 󰁡󰁵󰁴󰁯 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁦󰁥󰁬󰁬 󰁡󰁴 󰁡 7.5% 󰁡󰁮󰁮󰁵󰁡󰁬󰁩󰁺󰁥󰁤 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 (A󰁵󰁧󰁵󰁳󰁴 2013: +17%)
 
I󰁮󰁤󰁵󰁳󰁴󰁲󰁩󰁡󰁬 󰁥󰁬󰁥󰁣󰁴󰁲󰁩󰁣󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁵󰁳󰁥 󰁳󰁨󰁲󰁩󰁮󰁫󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁡󰁴 󰁦󰁡󰁳󰁴󰁥󰁳󰁴 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 (󰀭3.1%) 󰁳󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁥 A󰁰󰁲󰁩󰁬 2010
 
G󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁲󰁡󰁴󰁥 󰁯󰁦 󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁬 󰁤󰁩󰁳󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁡󰁢󰁬󰁥 󰁩󰁮󰁣󰁯󰁭󰁥 󰁢󰁡󰁲󰁥󰁬󰁹 󰁰󰁯󰁳󰁩󰁴󰁩󰁶󰁥 (+0.2%)
󰁃󰁏󰁎󰁃󰁌󰁕󰁓󰁉󰁏󰁎󰀺
󰁔󰁨󰁥 󰁰󰁲󰁯󰁢󰁡󰁢󰁩󰁬󰁩󰁴󰁹 󰁦󰁯󰁲 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮 󰁩󰁳 󰁬󰁯󰁷. H󰁯󰁷󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁲, 󰁥󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁩󰁣 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁲󰁥󰁭󰁡󰁩󰁮󰁳 󰁷󰁥󰁡󰁫. R󰁥󰁴󰁡󰁩󰁬 󰁳󰁡󰁬󰁥󰁳 󰁧󰁲󰁯󰁷󰁴󰁨 󰁩󰁳 󰁳󰁬󰁯󰁷󰁩󰁮󰁧 󰁤󰁯󰁷󰁮 󰁴󰁯 󰁢󰁯󰁲󰁤󰁥󰁲󰁬󰁩󰁮󰁥 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮󰁡󰁲󰁹 󰁬󰁥󰁶󰁥󰁬󰁳. 󰁗󰁨󰁡󰁴 󰁷󰁯󰁵󰁬󰁤 󰁴󰁨󰁥 F󰁥󰁤 󰁤󰁯 󰁩󰁦 󰁴󰁨󰁥 󰁥󰁣󰁯󰁮󰁯󰁭󰁹 󰁲󰁥󰀭󰁥󰁮󰁴󰁥󰁲󰁥󰁤 󰁡 󰁲󰁥󰁣󰁥󰁳󰁳󰁩󰁯󰁮? I󰁴'󰁳 󰁢󰁡󰁬󰁡󰁮󰁣󰁥 󰁳󰁨󰁥󰁥󰁴 󰁡󰁬󰁲󰁥󰁡󰁤󰁹 󰁥󰁸󰁣󰁥󰁥󰁤󰁳 $4 󰁴󰁲󰁩󰁬󰁬󰁩󰁯󰁮, 󰁯󰁲 25% 󰁯󰁦 GDP.

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