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Chapter 13 Forecasting

Chapter 13 Forecasting

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Published by: api-25888404 on Oct 19, 2009
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02/23/2013

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Chapter 13Forecasting
MGS3100
Julie Liggett De Jong
It is difficult toforecast,especially inregards to thefuture.It isn’t difficultto forecast,just to forecastcorrectly.Numbers, iftorturedenough, willconfess tojust aboutanything.Economic Forecasts Influence:Government policies & businessdecisions
 
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Insurance companiesinvestmentdecisions in mortgages and bondsService industries’forecasts ofdemand as input for revenuemanagement
FEATURES
RegressionSolverSorting
FUNCTIONS
SUMPRODUCT( )SUMXMY2( )YEAR( )MONTH( )RIGHT( )
Excel Features & Functions
Quantitative vsQualitativeForecasting ModelsQuantitative Forecasting Models
Expressed in mathematical notation
 
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Based on an amazing quantity of data
1.Causal (Curve Fitting)
a.Linearb.Quadratic
2.Moving Averages (Naive)
a.Simple n-Period Moving Averageb.Weighted n-Period Moving Average
3.Exponential Smoothing
a.Basic modelb.Holt’s Model (exponential smoothing with trend)
4.Seasonality
Quantitative Forecasting Models
Important Variables
Average value of dependent variable (Y bar)
Y
Predicted or forecasted dependent variable(Y hat)
ˆ
True value of dependent variable
Y
Independent variable(s)
X
Causal vsTime Series ModelsCausal Forecasting ModelsRequirements

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