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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
21 October 2009
Issue No. 201
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
RIO (RIOKZF) MINI Investment Buy
– Setting up for 2010
NWS (NWSKZI) MINI Trading Buy
– Result a catalyst
Banks (NAB,ANZ,WBC) Sector Update
– Pre-results form guide
Round Up Corner Strategy – Acquisition candidates
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200+53.4 4846.2 +1.1%
+15 to +79 $6.0 bn(A)
SPI - yesterday+36.0 4845.0 +0.7%
+33 to +70 26,588(A)
Dow Jones-50.710041.5-0.5% 
-99 to +6 Avg
S&P 500-6.91091.1-0.6% 
-12 to +1 Low
Nasdaq-12.92163.5-0.6% 
-25 to +5 Avg
FTSE-38.15243.4-0.7% 
-38 to +17 Avg
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot-0.579.1-0.7%+9.8% Gold Spot-8.31055.9-0.8% 
+5.0% 
Nickel (LME)-19.6851.8-2.2%+10.0% Aluminium (LME)-1.485.2-1.6% -0.3%  Copper (LME)-2.6290.1-0.9% 
+4.0% 
Zinc (LME)+0.8 95.4 +0.9% +11.5%Silver-0.317.5-1.9%+3.3% Sugar-0.523.0-2.2% 
+5.2% 
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)-0.10 -0.01
+14.8 c
16.09
-8.8 c 
RIO (UK)-21.00 -0.01
+29.5 c
52.37
-1442.6 c 
BLT (BHP UK)-21.50 -0.01
+18.3 c
32.41
-749.7 c 
BXB (UK)0.75 0.00
+4.0 c
7.10
-2.5 c 
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)-0.45 -0.01
+73.2 c
39.66
-24.9 c 
AWC (US)-0.04 -0.01
+6.8 c
1.84
-4.9 c 
TLS (US)-0.21 -0.01
+14.4 c
3.13
+1.2 c
ANZ (US)-0.42 -0.02
+21.8 c
23.64
-15.1 c 
WBC (US)-2.29 -0.02
+120.9 c
26.22
-26.4 c 
NAB (US)-0.39 -0.01
+28.5 c
30.92
-38.5 c 
LGL (US)-0.13 0.00
+29.5 c
3.20
-2.9 c 
RMD (US)0.04 0.00
+49.2 c
5.33
+3.2 c
JHX (US)-1.09 -0.03
+34.5 c
7.48
-9.1 c 
PDN (CAN)0.41 0.09
+5.1 c
5.22
+41.8 c
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
A raft of reporting's overnights, a mix or of up and downside surprise, but the markets primary focus was on the economic data whichfell shy of expectations. The Dow off lows but down 50pts, the S&P an Nasdaq both down 0.6%.
Aerospace
- Boeing down over 3% and the biggest pt taker post a broker downgrade to underweight. Lockheed Martin 6%lower(S&P100's worst) after its 2010 forecast trailed estimates, EPS for the quarter came in at $1.92 vs $1.83 but mgmt expectationsfor 2010 sales and profit trailed.
Consumer
- Coca-Cola down 1.3% after missing EPS by a penny. 3Q profit rose less than 1% with volumes a little sluggish acrossNorth America and Revenue actually fell 4.2% for the period.
Chemicals/Diversified
- Dupont down 2.2%(2nd biggest pt taker and in the Dow's bottom 3) .Sales for the 3Q fell shy of forecasts,prices slid for the first time since 2003 and Revenue for the period slipped 18% post drop in demand across Europe and the US.
Industrials
- For the second consecutive session, Caterpillar was the best of the Dow components, up over 3% after beating estimateswith 3Q numbers. Headline numbers well ahead of consensus and mgmt narrowing the range for FY numbers.
Eco
- Another miss from Housing post yesterday NAHB disappointment. Housing Starts for September coming in at 590K vs 610K anddown from 598K in the month prior, Permits 573K vs 595K. To be expected, another 3% fall from the Homebuilders. PPI -0.6% vs flat,Ex Food&Energy -0.1% vs +0.1%.Techs - Sandisk up 10% in late trading after revenue and EPS beat analyst forecasts. Yahoo up 3% after 3Q EPS came in at 15cps vs13cps expected and EBITDA guidance exceeded marlet expectations. 
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
The FTSE fell 0.7% or 38pts with banks leading the fall while investors were also bearish on negative US data. The FTSE Eurofirst 300fell 0.5%, the CAC was also off 0.5% and the DAX dropped 0.7%.
UK Banks
- Barclays sank 4.8% after news that the Qatari Investment Authority (QIA) would sell 379.2mn shares worth £1.3bn. HSBC,RBS and Lloyds shed between 0.7% and 2.2%.
Euro Banks
- Swedbank was flat after being up 3% early despite reporting worse than expected 3Q results. The CEO said there wouldbe fewer impaired loans in the second half. Among the majors, Deutsche Bank fell 1.2%, Commerzbank was off 1%, BNP dropped0.25% but SocGen managed a gain of 0.5%.
Retail
- Sainsbury, up 5.4%, was again in demand on renewed bid speculation after the QIA sold its Barclays stake. Peers WMMorrisson and Tesco were up 0.3% and 1.2% respectively.
 
 
Eco
- Britain's public finances suffered their worst six months on record between April and September. The Office for National Statisticssaid public sector net borrowings last month was £14.8bn, the biggest total ever recorded for a month of September. The year-to-datedeficit swelled to £77.3bn, higher than in any comparable period since records began in 1946.
Telecoms
- A positive broker note citing consolidation saw European telecoms one of the strongest sectors. TeliaSonera climbed2.4%, Dutch KPN advanced 1.4%, while Norway’s Telenor gained 2%. Telekom Austria , which was upgraded by 2 brokers, jumped2.2%.
Commodiites Commentary
Miners
- Generally weaker metal prices saw the sector drift lower. BHP was 1.2% lower, Rio fell 0.7%, Anglo dropped 0.9%, Xstratawas off 2.4% and Vedanta sank 2.3%.
Energy
- Crude slipped back from a 12 month high leading the sector lower. BP fell 0.9%, Shell was 0.45% lower, Tullow dropped0.1% but BG Group added 0.7%. In Europe Total fell 0.3%, Repsol was off 0.9% but Statoil gained 0.35%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded up 36pts or 0.75% to 4845. Open at 4854 with a high of 4879 and a low of 4842. Volume 21,066. Overnight the SPItraded down 17pts to 4828.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUS
RBA’s Lowe speaks
USTuesdayAUS
RBA Board minutes, Imports
US
NAHB survey, PPI, housing starts
WednesdayAUS
New motor vehicle sales
USThursdayAUSUS
Fed Beige Book
FridayAUS
Export prices, import prices
US
Leading index, FHFA house price index, existing home sales
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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