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This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
23 October 2009
Issue No. 203
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrantsteam providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas forwarrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action
Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action
SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
RIO (RIOKZF) MINI Investment Buy
– Setting up for 2010
NWS (NWSKZI) MINI Trading Buy
– Result a catalyst
Banks (NAB,ANZ,WBC) Sector Update
– Pre-results form guide
Round Up Corner Strategy – Acquisition candidates
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200-25.84812.8-0.5% 
-29 to +6 $5.2 bn(A)
SPI - yesterday-26.04819.0-0.5% 
-41 to +6 27,447(A)
Dow Jones+132.0 10081.3 +1.3%
-33 to +156
HighS&P 500+11.5 1092.9 +1.1%
-7 to +14
AvgNasdaq+14.6 2165.3 +0.7%
-20 to +18
HighFTSE-50.55207.4-1.0% 
-91 to u.c
Avg
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot-0.2281.15-0.3%+13.5% Gold Spot+1.40 1060.40 +0.1% +4.5%Nickel (LME)-26.72865.37-3.0%+8.0% Aluminium (LME)+0.04 87.59 +0.0% +4.1%Copper (LME)+0.06 297.88 +0.0% +5.1%Zinc (LME)+0.74 100.96 +0.7% +15.9%Silver+0.01 17.71 +0.1% +2.7%Sugar-0.9222.48-3.9%+1.5%
 
 
Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
NWS (US)+0.17 +1.2% 14.88 16.05
+5.4 c
RIO (UK)-40.0 p -1.3%£29.35 52.62
-1417.5 c 
BLT (BHP UK)-29.0 p -1.6%£17.960 32.20
-745.8 c 
BXB (UK)+8.5 p +2.2% £4.005 7.18
-6.9 c 
American Depository Receipts (ADR’s)
Move %Move Last AUD Terms Diff to Aus
BHP (US)+0.44 +0.6% 73.86 39.84
+18.2 c
AWC (US)+0.01 +0.1% 6.92 1.87
-1.4 c 
TLS (US)+0.20 +1.4% 14.90 3.22
+1.5 c
ANZ (US)+0.25 +1.1% 22.13 23.88
+34.5 c
WBC (US)+3.16 +2.6% 124.40 26.84
+34.2 c
NAB (US)+0.15 +0.5% 28.70 30.96
+24.3 c
LGL (US)+0.22 +0.7% 29.92 3.23
+1.8 c
RMD (US)+0.36 +0.7% 49.63 5.35
+0.4 c
JHX (US)-0.93 -2.6%34.17 7.37
-7.7 c 
PDN (CAN)+0.06 +1.3% 4.76 4.90
+0.0 c
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
 
Mediocre economic data more than offset by a raft of forecast beating 3Q numbers. Travellers Companies, McDonalds,3M, Amazon and AMEX all came in ahead of consensus, the Dow off highs but up 132pts, the S&P finished 1.1% higherand the Nasdaq added 0.7%.
 
Insurance
-TravellersCompaniesfinished7.8%higherandwastheDow'sbestaftertheinsurerlifteditsdividendandmgmtsaidnetincomefortheperiodhadquadrupled.Earningsof$1.61/sharecompareswithconsensussittingat$1.29.
 
Diversified Manufacturing -
3Mupnearly4%(3rdontheDowleaderboard)andtogetherwithTravellers,accountingforaroundonethirdofthedaysgains.Boostedbyjobcuts,profitexcludingitemscameinat$1.37vsanaverageestimateof$1.17/share,providingenoughconfidenceformgmttoliftFYforecasts.
 
Consumer -
McDonaldsfinished2.1%higherafterrecordinghigherthanexpectedsalesatstoresopen13monthsormoreandearningsof$1.15/share,aheadoftheaverageestimateat$1.11.
 
Financials - American Express up 3.8% in normal (2nd behind Travellers) and marginally higher in late trading afterbeating the street with 3Q numbers. Net income for the period came in a70cps vs consensus at 38cpsEco - Initial Jobless Claims 531K vs 515K expected, Continuing Claims 5923K vs consensus sitting at 5970K. LeadingIndicators for September, +1.0% vs +0.8% expected. House Price Index for August -0.3% vs last month and expectationsfor a 0.3% gain.
 
United Kingdom & Europe Commentary
TheFTSEfell1%or50ptsinabroadbasedselloffdespiteahostofUScompaniesreportingbetterthanexpected.TheFTSEEurofirst300dropped1.1%,theDAXwasoff1.2%andtheCACended1.4%lower.UKBanks-ThesectorwaslowerhavingmissedtheWellsFargodowngradethepreviousnightandaftertheFSAissuedaraftofproposalstoreformtheindustry.HeavyweightHSBCshed1.8%withBarclays,RBSandStandardCharteredfallingbetween0.7%and1.6%.Lloydsjumped3.6%ontalkitwasclosetosecuringbackingforitsequityraising.EuroBanks-CreditSuisse,off3.5%,ledthesectordownwithits3Qprofits,althoughstrong,belowthoseofitspeers.SwisspeerUBSwas2.5%lower,DeutscheBankdropped2.3%,Commerzbankfell2.6%,BNPwasoff2%andSocGensank2.3%.
 
 
Retail-WeakUKretailsalesfiguressawNextandMarks&Spencerfall0.9%and1.6%,respectively,whilemidcapdepartmentstoregroupDebenhamslost0.6%althoughitpostedfull-yearprofitstowardsthetopendofexpectations.
 
Commodiites Commentary
Miners-Aweakernightformetalssawprofittakinginthesector.BHPfell1.6%,Riowasoff1.3%,Xstratadropped1.9%,Vedantawas1%lowerandAntofagastasank2.3%.Energy-Crudeslippedbackfroma12monthhighfallingbelow$81.BPandShellwerebothoff1.4%withBGGroupfalling1.5%.InEuropeTotalfell0.8%,Statoildropped1.1%andRepsolfinished0.6%lower.
 
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 25pt or 0.05% to 4819. Open at 4810 with a low of 4806 and a high of 4849. Volume 28,436. Overnight the SPItraded down 8pts to 4811.
SPI Intraday SPI Daily
 
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS 
Upcoming Economic Events for the Week
MondayAUS
RBA’s Lowe speaks
USTuesdayAUS
RBA Board minutes, Imports
US
NAHB survey, PPI, housing starts
WednesdayAUS
New motor vehicle sales
USThursdayAUSUS
Fed Beige Book
FridayAUS
Export prices, import prices
US
Leading index, FHFA house price index, existing home sales
*Dates are indicative only and may change 
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